Top 5 prediction?

Rubadub said:
Gustavo has already signed for Wolfsburg and I think Liverpool have made it clear that Suarez wont be joining Arsenal.
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If you can predict a Wenger signing then you are better than me.

If there is anything that this Ozil signing proved, it was that a lot of what we have been hearing from the club over the last decade is true. I am fairly confident that given time, and if we need it, Wenger will find a class striker, and it probably isn't going to be exactly who we think it is going to be.

Just by the way, how do you think Suarez is feeling right now, realizing that he has just missed out on a chance to play with Ozil in the CL?
 
Ok now the transfer window has shut, I've got a better idea of how I think the top five will line up:

Chelsea
City
Arsenal
Utd
Spurs


I think both Moyes and AVB will come under a lot of pressure, the former because of his lack of signings and trying to keep up with the almost impossible job that Fergie set the standards for, AVB for having spent 110m and the expectations for spurs to get champions league football. If they don't I can see some of the better players they signed like Lamela and Erikson being snapped up by the teams who can offer them CL football.
 
ToledoTrumpton said:
Bookies set odds based on the money they take in. As a lot of these bets were placed long before the Ozil signing, the market will probably not reflect the true chances Arsenal or any team that did well late in the transfer window.
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True but they also employ professional analysts and are usually a far truer reflection of chances than biased fans. They pretty much match most posters predictions tbf.

The market also moves a lot in real time as Pool where as long as 40/1 before the season and Arsenal were 22/1 after the first game.
 
1.Chelsea
2.Man City
3.Man Utd
4.Arsenal
5.Spurs

Buying Ozil was huge for us, but he is only one player, and our squad is still not good enough for a whole season. Buying Ozil was the first step in taking us to the next level and I am over the moon that we finally made that step.
 
AndyI said:
True but they also employ professional analysts and are usually a far truer reflection of chances than biased fans. They pretty much match most posters predictions tbf.

The market also moves a lot in real time as Pool where as long as 40/1 before the season and Arsenal were 22/1 after the first game.
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Yep, and favorites always win, outsiders never do because the bookies are always right...

We haven't had the best #10 in the world in England for a long, long, time, and people have no idea how big an impact it will have. Two games on, and you will be singing a different tune, just wait and see.

Edit: and don't forget bookies make their money when outsiders win, so their analysts are not going to play up the chances of Arsenal winning even if they think they are.
 
PISKIE said:
Ok now the transfer window has shut, I've got a better idea of how I think the top five will line up:

Chelsea
City
Arsenal
Utd
Spurs


I think both Moyes and AVB will come under a lot of pressure, the former because of his lack of signings and trying to keep up with the almost impossible job that Fergie set the standards for, AVB for having spent 110m and the expectations for spurs to get champions league football. If they don't I can see some of the better players they signed like Lamela and Erikson being snapped up by the teams who can offer them CL football.
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Unsure even the best manager in the world can win the league with Torres in the squad
 
ToledoTrumpton said:
Yep, and favorites always win, outsiders never do because the bookies are always right...

We haven't had the best #10 in the world in England for a long, long, time, and people have no idea how big an impact it will have. Two games on, and you will be singing a different tune, just wait and see.

Edit: and don't forget bookies make their money when outsiders win, so their analysts are not going to play up the chances of Arsenal winning even if they think they are.
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No they don't always win but they have Arsenal as 4/5th favourites to win the league. That's what most people think, including a great deal of the posts in this thread.

Just because that's doesn't fit your minority view, doesn't make it wrong, and no amount of BS will change that i'm afraid.
 
ToledoTrumpton said:
Edit: and don't forget bookies make their money when outsiders win, so their analysts are not going to play up the chances of Arsenal winning even if they think they are.
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I'm guessing you don't do a lot of betting, if you really think that.

Its complete bollox!!
 
Norwich fan here. The scepticism about Arsenal this season bears little relation to the facts. Last season you had the third highest goals scored tally in the PL, and the second lowest total of goals conceded, yet you are being ridiculed for not signing a proven goal scorer and a class CB. Mesut Özil will not only add to your goals by chipping in with a decent number himself, but also boost the contributions from Giroud, Walcott and others. Although you haven't signed a quality CB, your defending as a team has noticeably improved (presumably the influence of Steve Bould); that's a more effective defensive strategy than signing one player however good (and you've anyway added Flamini, another great signing IMO). People keeping saying your squad is particularly thin and vulnerable to losing players through injury. I disagree. For positions where you appear to lack cover, you have players who are able to fill the gap even allowing for Podolski and the Ox already being sidelined. You will definitely finish in the top 4 IMO, the only question being how much higher than 4th you can get. <ok>
 
AndyI said:
I'm guessing you don't do a lot of betting, if you really think that.

Its complete bollox!!
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Look, I've said before that winning the opinion "title" before the season means nothing. If that was important United would win the league every year.

Popular opinion is right a lot less than people realise. In fact popular opinion has failed to get the winners right the last 4 years. Chelsea have been one of the most over-rated clubs every year and Arsenal fans are the most gloomy in the league about their club's chances.

Saying that nobody thinks Arsenal can win, isn't really going to be a surprise. They were not even favorites the year they went unbeaten in the league. But saying Arsenal don't have a chance is simply not true. This year we had a 100/1 winner of the Grand National, so the odds can be beaten.
 
ToledoTrumpton said:
Look, I've said before that winning the opinion "title" before the season means nothing. If that was important United would win the league every year.

Popular opinion is right a lot less than people realise. In fact popular opinion has failed to get the winners right the last 4 years. Chelsea have been one of the most over-rated clubs every year and Arsenal fans are the most gloomy in the league about their club's chances.

Saying that nobody thinks Arsenal can win, isn't really going to be a surprise. They were not even favorites the year they went unbeaten in the league. But saying Arsenal don't have a chance is simply not true. This year we had a 100/1 winner of the Grand National, so the odds can be beaten.
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I personally don't feel Aresnal have the squad depth to challenge Chelsea/City/Utd (And this is coming from someone who'd rather see Arsenal win the league than any of those three).

The Grand National is a bad example, as it is a Sprint, not a marathon. If your example was right, then Newcastle/Sunderland could pull of the surprise of the season and win the league.
 
K3 said:
I personally don't feel Aresnal have the squad depth to challenge Chelsea/City/Utd (And this is coming from someone who'd rather see Arsenal win the league than any of those three).

The Grand National is a bad example, as it is a Sprint, not a marathon. If your example was right, then Newcastle/Sunderland could pull of the surprise of the season and win the league.
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Probably was a bad turn of phrase.

Aside from that, the very fact that you don't see Arsenal in the same category as Newcastle/Sunderland indicates to me that even you think that Arsenal have *some* chance. :emoticon-0112-wonde
 
ToledoTrumpton said:
Look, I've said before that winning the opinion "title" before the season means nothing. If that was important United would win the league every year.

Popular opinion is right a lot less than people realise. In fact popular opinion has failed to get the winners right the last 4 years. Chelsea have been one of the most over-rated clubs every year and Arsenal fans are the most gloomy in the league about their club's chances.

Saying that nobody thinks Arsenal can win, isn't really going to be a surprise. They were not even favorites the year they went unbeaten in the league. But saying Arsenal don't have a chance is simply not true. This year we had a 100/1 winner of the Grand National, so the odds can be beaten.
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Where did I say they have no chance? Of course they have a chance. 6 teams have what would punters consider a chance!!

I just pointed out the bookies odds for the title which are pertinent to the thread, as they give an idea of the market. (by the way, bookies don't downplay any runners chances, as they'd lose money doing that and can someone show me a poor bookie?) Those odds also pretty much back up most posters opinion.

It pretty obvious that you feel they have a better chance than the bookies who see them as between 12/1 and 14/1. This implies that you see value in the Market.
In that case I suggest you get some money on sharpish.

I backed them at 22/1 e/w as I think they have a good shout for 3rd myself and could now lay that bet off for profit but i'm gonna let it run a while yet.
 
ToledoTrumpton said:
If you can predict a Wenger signing then you are better than me.

If there is anything that this Ozil signing proved, it was that a lot of what we have been hearing from the club over the last decade is true. I am fairly confident that given time, and if we need it, Wenger will find a class striker, and it probably isn't going to be exactly who we think it is going to be.

Just by the way, how do you think Suarez is feeling right now, realizing that he has just missed out on a chance to play with Ozil in the CL?
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Im sure he feels fine considering he left a club that were in the champions league to join us and triple his wage packet. Im not sure what you mean about Ozil, are you suggesting that Luis Suarez dreams about playing with Ozil in the champions league?
 
AndyI said:
Where did I say they have no chance? Of course they have a chance. 6 teams have what would punters consider a chance!!

I just pointed out the bookies odds for the title which are pertinent to the thread, as they give an idea of the market. (by the way, bookies don't downplay any runners chances, as they'd lose money doing that and can someone show me a poor bookie?) Those odds also pretty much back up most posters opinion.

It pretty obvious that you feel they have a better chance than the bookies who see them as between 12/1 and 14/1. This implies that you see value in the Market.
In that case I suggest you get some money on sharpish.

I backed them at 22/1 e/w as I think they have a good shout for 3rd myself and could now lay that bet off for profit but i'm gonna let it run a while yet.
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I'm not a betting man myself although I come from a betting family; I don't smoke for much the same reason.

I think you give excellent advice for any betting people out there though. It isn't going to take many games for the odds to shorten. I said at the end of last season that Arsenal had to find +12 in their goal difference to win the league. They just did.
 
ToledoTrumpton said:
I'm not a betting man myself although I come from a betting family; I don't smoke for much the same reason.

I think you give excellent advice for any betting people out there though. It isn't going to take many games for the odds to shorten. I said at the end of last season that Arsenal had to find +12 in their goal difference to win the league. They just did.
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Ozil is a creator more than a big goalscorer. If you had him behind RVP and they stayed fit all season you may have a chance.
Podolski and Walcott get injured a lot too.

So I would be realistic and stick to a top three challenge ending in fourth place above spurs
 
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