That's because the PL isn't a one-team league like it was when Blackburn snuck off with the title, so instead of needing one or two teams to have an off season Newcastle need something like six at this point Sort of like how Newcastle stopped being title challengers the second the PL had a second potential title challenger in Wenger's Arsenal pop up
Three of those points can be attributed to managerial decisions though. He has a say in recruitment and signs off on all deals. His guidelines for the type of player we sign is certainly on him, as that almost certainly impacts the quality of player we can target. Injuries are down to his intense style of football along with poor squad management. Distribution of goals are down to where we’re no longer being as effective due to players being too tired or injured to perform his demands.
surely the better coaching (or adapted tactics) helps contribute towards the distribution? I.e, if a team defends as a unit better than the previous game, they give themselves more chance of not conceding? Maybe not in all cases, but surely the law of averages would result in better overall chance of success over a period of games perhaps? you’re right, no one can prevent brain farts from players, that’s on the individual. But a cohesive approach/plan surely has to pay dividends?
Everything seems a bit too mathematics with the way you view the game…that’s fine but in real life the game is played through emotions, moments. That’s why things like ‘form’ are a real thing and going on ‘a run of wins’ or ‘losses’. These moments affect the players confidence, that affects the game, that affects the results. mathematical whataboutery can never explain that very important aspect of the game. We are on a bad run due to bad decision after bad decision from someone as well as player performances Btw I don’t want him sacked because I’m interested to see how bad this can get…sometimes things have to hit rock bottom before people wake up, maybe that’s what we need for Mr Levy to remember that we are a football club and we require some serious football thought.
Depends on the coach Under Santini the team was very good at defending, but his tactical plan went downhill after that as he hasn't worked out a way to get the ball from the back into the opponent's half let alone the opponent's net
I don't view the game mathematically at all. I like the thrills and spills of football. But my thoughts about the game are driven by facts as far as possible and in all walks of life I have no time for people who misuse statistics.
It's a very easy statistical check to see if bad or good 'form' affects future results due to different player confidence and there are quite a few studies in many different sports. Rather surprisingly it is a much smaller effect than people think.
I can't see any evidence that it does. The law of averages doesn't exist as is demonstrated by the fact that we are in the bottom half with a massive positive goal difference while West Ham are above us with a massive negative one. Do you think West Ham are deliberately losing many matches heavily and making up for that by winning a few by a single goal? I couldn't even imagine a style of playing that would get that outcome except by chance. And I wasn't talking about brainfarts, although the same argument applies. Mistakes are going to be random* as well as moments of brilliance. *there will be more on average against better teams that put us under more pressure of course. Ange can make the number of mistakes fewer by better tactics, training or team selection but he has almost no control over when the remaining ones happen.
Either we reach season end or Ange is gone. And then will I show you exactly what the numbers have been telling me all season (actual and predictive) .
The board must be banking on the club going on a good run in the league. I don’t see it happening though
1. 75 pts is the most that can now be taken, It would be good enough for a top 4 finish most seasons. 2. Choose what pts you believe 4th will finish with come May. The difference between #1 and #2 is the margin of error that you have given Spurs.
I’d take 45 points right now. With all the injuries dodgy tactics and poor form, I struggle to see where the club picks up many wins.
I think you need to broaden your imagination then. West Ham don't have the quality to compete with the stronger sides, and have on more than one occasion this season effectively thrown the towel in before kick off in those games, suffering extremely heavy defeats as a result. They've lost by 3 or more goals to: Arsenal, Chelsea, Forest, City, Liverpool and us. Instead, they focus what little quality they have in securing wins against teams immediately around them in the league. Many of these wins are quite narrow, as they aren't a very good team at all. They've beaten Ipswich, Soton, Wolves, Fulham, United and Palace. Their win at Newcastle is literally the only result they've had all season that reads as a complete surprise. This fully explains how and why they are above us. It also explains their goal difference. And it also demonstrates that football is far more controllable than you think it is.
Also add late late stage Wenger era to your analysis. Their bullying of all but the usual suspects (who tended to spank them) was key to them annually keeping their precious CL slot. For lower ambitions, the results calculus makes it easy to plot a course (I have long given you all the various traits for doing so to finish PL top 4) .
You ignore results and focus on the goal difference for one example you ignore the league table for another.
