Title chances

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I looked at the fixtures and tried to predict where we might end up if we continue playing as we have been doing. If we're consistently beating the midtable and lower sides and one or two of the top 7-8, we may have a chance of winning it. The way I see it, we need to win another 10 matches, draw at least 4 and maybe we'll lose 2. That accounts for the 16 fixtures we have remaining.

We have 8 games left against lower half teams and 8 against top half sides. If we win all our games against the bottom half we'll have 8 of the 10 wins we require. If we can win against say, Newcastle and Southampton who are currently in the top half of the table, we'll reach our 10 win target which I think is a minimum requirements. I predicted we'd get draws at WHL, Goodison, Manure at the Emirates and Pool at Anfield. That's 4 draws, giving us a total of 35 points. I predicted we'd lose to Chelski away and City at home. If you add the combined totals, 35 more points to what we have now (51) we'll end up on 85 points which may or may not be enough to win the title.
 
MihaelaAkela33 said:
I looked at the fixtures and tried to predict where we might end up if we continue playing as we have been doing. If we're consistently beating the midtable and lower sides and one or two of the top 7-8, we may have a chance of winning it. The way I see it, we need to win another 10 matches, draw at least 4 and maybe we'll lose 2. That accounts for the 16 fixtures we have remaining.

We have 8 games left against lower half teams and 8 against top half sides. If we win all our games against the bottom half we'll have 8 of the 10 wins we require. If we can win against say, Newcastle and Southampton who are currently in the top half of the table, we'll reach our 10 win target which I think is a minimum requirements. I predicted we'd get draws at WHL, Goodison, Manure at the Emirates and Pool at Anfield. That's 4 draws, giving us a total of 35 points. I predicted we'd lose to Chelski away and City at home. If you add the combined totals, 35 more points to what we have now (51) we'll end up on 85 points which may or may not be enough to win the title.
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Maths. D+
 
SpursDisciple said:
I do. And 85 points would give you a chance. Trouble is, how many points do you see City dropping?
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They could drop points, they still have to visit Anfield, the Ems, WHL, OT... just four difficult away games I can think of. They WILL drop points though, of that I have little doubt.
 
So will we.

Despite City getting better away, I still think we'll get more points against 'average' teams on away games. But their home form is definitely a big plus.
 
City just look so strong at the moment and Chelsea are getting those wins despite being average many times. If we do win the league this season, it will be one of the toughest leagues won since 07/08. That was one of the best seasons in a while and we only finished 4 points off top.
 
MihaelaAkela33 said:
They could drop points, they still have to visit Anfield, the Ems, WHL, OT... just four difficult away games I can think of. They WILL drop points though, of that I have little doubt.
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And Goodison park, where they have a pretty awful record.
 
I personally think we're looking very average at the moment and we're still picking up the wins. People keep saying "once Chelsea click" or "City are so strong" but what happens when we finally hit that sweet spot? My prediction is that it'll be sweet.

...though I still can't see anything beyond one of the two mega-bucks sides buying the title. I just think their strength in depth will tell in the end.
 
PeterRICK said:
I personally think we're looking very average at the moment and we're still picking up the wins. People keep saying "once Chelsea click" or "City are so strong" but what happens when we finally hit that sweet spot? My prediction is that it'll be sweet.

...though I still can't see anything beyond one of the two mega-bucks sides buying the title. I just think their strength in depth will tell in the end.
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Feel the same, I think this season we may fall short. I'd like to see us push them all the way though. If we do what we can and still lose it'll be bittersweet but we'll have plenty of positives to take unlike previous seasons fighting for 4th.
 
PeterRICK said:
I personally think we're looking very average at the moment and we're still picking up the wins. People keep saying "once Chelsea click" or "City are so strong" but what happens when we finally hit that sweet spot? My prediction is that it'll be sweet.

...though I still can't see anything beyond one of the two mega-bucks sides buying the title. I just think their strength in depth will tell in the end.
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Spot on.....
 
PeterRICK said:
...though I still can't see anything beyond one of the two mega-bucks sides buying the title. I just think their strength in depth will tell in the end.
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I'm honestly secretly hoping we're knocked out of the champs league against Bayern. The one way I can see us competing in terms of strength in depth is by requiring less depth due to having fewer mentally and physically knackering crunch games. On the other hand I certainly don't want Bayern to slaughter us and derail our form, a narrow loss with decisions not going our way would do the job ;)
Having said this when it comes to match day I will of course abandon such 'rational' thinking and be shouting us on to win.
 
If we somehow manage to get past Bayern, it may prove to be a phyrric victory. Drawing Bayern may be a blessing in disguise because with all these injuries we have it may better to get knocked out early and focus on domestic trophies. Unless Wenger buys adequately this month, we simply don't have the depth to compete for all 3 trophies like City do.
 
For once I agree with the masses. Win against Bayern and our confidence will go sky high, lose and our schedule eases. Can't see a downside to the draw.

I think people tend to focus too much on the present, and they tend to exaggerate. Are City playing better than us? Yes a bit, but the goal they let in this week-end was awful. They are capable of screw-ups. Chelsea, same.

Anything can happen, the title is far from decided, and City can still make mistakes. Despite all their good play, they still are capable of looking very average at certain points in a game, particularly away from home.
 
City's home form is a big plus, but if you look at all of our remaining home fixtures, we should be really winning all of them, City is the only really one that stands out as being a very very tough home game, but being at home, and them being rocky away, it should be doable. We have generally done well against City at home, last season we did bad because we had a man sent off in the first 10 minutes.
 
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