Timeform on Kingman

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Ron

Ron

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By Tony McFadden -- published 18th August 2014

‘The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results’.

The above oft-quoted adage is not the accepted definition of insanity, though watching the way Kingman’s rivals have served up a series of slowly-run races that have enabled John Gosden’s star to employ his explosive turn of foot does make you wonder!

Kingman’s two-and-a-half length victory in the Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville on Sunday – his fourth Group 1 win in succession – was achieved in comfortable fashion, underlining his status as the best miler in training, and he deserves to be held in the same esteem as past great winners of the race such as Miesque, Dubai Millennium and Goldikova. Kingman had produced an astonishing burst of pace to win the St James’s Palace and the Sussex Stakes on his two previous starts, clocking the fastest final two-furlong sectional that Timeform has on record at Ascot and running a remarkable 10.22s furlong at Goodwood, and his sectional times at Deauville again make for impressive reading. Kingman’s final two-furlong sectional of 22.69s on soft ground in the Jacques le Marois is a reflection of his undoubted ability (it can be deduced that he ran the penultimate furlong in approximately 10.75s) though it also highlights the fact they went steadily through the early stages of the race, very much playing to the strengths of a horse with such prodigious speed.

The tactical nature of the Prix Jacques le Marois means that it is difficult to rate the bare form highly. However, such an authoritative two-and-half-length beating of Anodin (seemingly an improved performer this year) with a further length back to a below-par Olympic Glory has seen Kingman’s master rating increase by 1lb to 133p. Significantly, this places Kingman at the head of Timeform’s global rankings alongside Arc de Triomphe-bound Japanese raider Just A Way (133).

The strong feeling remains that Kingman has the ability to clock a higher rating under more conducive circumstances but, in terms of simply winning races, he is at his most formidable when the emphasis is on speed.

Searing speed allied with a placid temperament is a potent combination, and Kingman is starting to look nigh-on unbeatable in slowly-run mile races that test which horse can quicken best. It is peculiar, then, that connections of his rivals have made little attempt to thoroughly test his stamina, especially when you consider that the one occasion Kingman has shown a hint of vulnerability was when losing out to Night of Thunder in a strongly-run 2000 Guineas. The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes on Champions Day has been mooted as Kingman’s next (and possibly final) target, and it could well prove to be his greatest test. An even pace on Ascot’s straight mile, possibly on rain-softened ground (something we know Kingman handles well), would provide Kingman with a good opportunity of showcasing his superior ability and achieving a rating in the high-130’s, marking himself down as an all-time great. However, those circumstances would also test what is seemingly the only question he has left to answer: can Kingman prove as effective in a Group 1 mile race when stamina comes into the equation? Either way, it would be madness for the opposition to again let Kingman dawdle in behind a leisurely gallop!
 
Yep I watched it live on ATR, yet another stroll in the park. As Timeform say, and I mentioned earlier somewhere, why do they try to beat Kingman by setting a slow pace? It is not possible
 
We see a lot of this kind of racing in Australia, it's on show at just about every meeting. Sit and sprint affairs. Even most of our distance racing is done in the same fashion. Whereas in the UK, staying races tend to wind up from much further out, making for a better test of stamina, we seems to only get cracking from the half mile onwards. I suppose it comes back to a lot of our breeding being along the faster lines. We just don't breed grinders. There is no doubting the class of UK stayers, they're at the top of the global tree. As we see so much of this type of racing, we can often sort the chaff from the wheat when these spectacles occur. A lot of the time, when a horse lets go and blasts away with two furlongs to go, they tend to make the break and then if they're half decent, maintain that advantage to the line. Most lose some of that gained ground, the better ones hold every yard of it. The really good horses, and there are few of them, go on to extend that lead with every stride. That's Kingman. I'm firmly of the belief that Kingman is a special animal. A great horse.
 
This is a fair write up in my opinion. I mentioned a good while back that I could only see him being beat by a top quality 10f horse and a pacemaker. The obvious candidate is Australia, I feel a Ballydoyle pacemaker or two to ensure a really fast pace which would see Kingman have little left at the end and Australia's superior stamina coming to the fore.

The reason you wonder of connections of his recet opponents sanity is that J. Gosden is on record of saying he considered running him in the July Cup. This tells you not to try and outsprint him but to try and outstay him off a furious pace.

He is very good clearly and needs now a good test and clear victory over a mile in the Queen Elizebeth to see him put his name up there with the best milers.
 
Thanks, london_man, for the clip, had not seen the race before. Yes, I would still like to see Kingman win off a strong gallop, also that 2000 Gns race still bothers me a bit. He really should have beaten the eventual winner who veered violently left and lost God knows how many lengths in the process, yet still won, albeit narrowly.
 
Thanks London man, hadn't seen that race either. Kingman again imperious. As Swanhills says though the 2000G defeat is a slight tarnish, more so considering the extra distance travelled by NoT veering across the track. If he'd have stayed straight it would have been more emphatic.

I don't think it was the strongly run mile that beat Kingman I just think think he's not in love with undulations. He's a top heavied horse and often they prefer conventional tracks. There was a moment at Goodwood he seemed unhappy when the track fell away slightly. It's either that or really firm ground annoys him.
 
The ground was fast enough for him in the Guineas but if they ran in one group he would have won, he made Night Of Thunder look like a plater at Newbury and he made him look like a group 3 horse at Ascot.

Lets not forget Kingmans impressive debut was at Newmarket, albeit the July course, but I dont think the undulations are a problem, he still kicked clear in the Guineas and looked the winner so I doubt he was beaten by the track.

It was only the 4th run of his life and his 2nd run back after an injury, he is a more professional horse now, if he gets a real gallop again he will win even easier than he has been giving lengths in these sprints.

Also, Night Of Thunder is not in the same class as Hannons recent milers Canford Cliffs and Toronado, but Kingman has already accounted for Toronado and I suspect he would probably have beaten Canford Cliffs as well.
 
Taking the scenario I have imagined of Australia Vs Kingman with two pacemakers from Ballydoyle. The first just goes hell for leather whilst the second sits at the head of the pack in case they just ignore the first for going off too fast, so if the first is not working the second (a better animal) will then go on to ensure the pace is course record standard.

The race is at Ascot in the QE11, the ground is good.

Who Wins?
 
I think Australia in the above scenario is the only horse in training who could give Kingman a race. Kingman being the specialist miler should win but when you consider that Australia stays 12f it tells you how good he is! We've seen in the Guineas the pace Australia has for a Derby winner.

In a 10f contest I doubt Kingman would get as close to Australia though!
 
Bluesky9 said:
Taking the scenario I have imagined of Australia Vs Kingman with two pacemakers from Ballydoyle. The first just goes hell for leather whilst the second sits at the head of the pack in case they just ignore the first for going off too fast, so if the first is not working the second (a better animal) will then go on to ensure the pace is course record standard.

The race is at Ascot in the QE11, the ground is good.

Who Wins?
Click to expand...
If Kingman is as good as we think he is he will win. Problem is we have never seen Kingman run in such a scenario so he could be exposed. I wouldn't bet on the outcome that's for sure (something else might even pop up with a surprise).
 
Kingman is a fabulous miler and really is one of the best we have had for ten years. Canford Cliffs was smart, Goldikova too, but this fella is extra special. However Timeform are right- racing him in a slow run then sprint finish is silly and proves nothing new. I cant believe that no one has looked to set a blistering pace and test his stamina.

I'm looking forward to seeing Australia in the flesh tomorrow although it is another small field tactical group 1, which is a real shame. If they go a crawl tomorrow then that would be ridiculous given Telescopes main attribute is stamina. Imagine if Australia had ran and edged out Taghrooda in the King George- his status would go through the roof. Instead, Australia will be faced with questions if he just quickens off a nonsenseical slow pace in a small field.

Personally I actually think Australia is the real deal. However, through no fault of his own, the state of racing means he will struggle to cement his status because of how protected he is. He should win tomorrow and will then mop up the Irish and English Champions events over 10f, but with little opposition and likely small fields. Theyll advertise him at stud as a dual Derby dual Champion who was good enough to be 2nd in a Guineas. However, will people look back fondly and think of classic battles and taking on the challenge of a King George mid season and going hammer and nails against a tank of a filly? Will they remember a brave rematch with Kingman?

To me, great Champions are allowed to lose. They win affection of the public by bouncing back, by taking on the impossible. There should be space where you are allowed to dream, where you answer the what ifs.

But carefully treading an unbeaten path wrapped in cotton wool? Where is the dreaming here? The records will say he was special. But the hearts and minds won't. And that is where we are missing the point in racing.

Let him have the chance to be a true Champion. Because true Champions can also be gallant in defeat. And would it really harm his stud fee? Galileo in 2001 losing to Fantastic Light over an inadequate 10f didmt harm his.
 
Australia wouldnt get near him at a mile now, just like the rest who were flattered to be as close to him in the Guineas. Australia will need to beat Mukhadram and Telescope in similar style to Taghrooda or he has no chance of being considered the best colt of his generation, even if he is the best Obrien has trained. I expect him to win but York is a funny track these days.
 
AOB has already trotted out the excuses this week Boris - "concerns over fitness ................... other targets later in the season ...................... " I wouldn't touch him at those odds
 
Glad you've given up on that big boat Telescope anyway Boris! O'Briens notorious with pre-race excuses, they all are I guess, but I'd be hugely surprised if Australia's not tuned up 95% for this race after the build up he's given the colt, who to be fair, has delivered thus far. That's the problem, if he wins half the track, you know fine well he'll not be given credit because of the anti-O'Brien brigade- you know who you are <laugh>

In all seriousness, tomorrow should be his optimium and if he's not able to beat Telescope and Mukhadram in a similar manner to Taghrooda then he's not the animal some hoped or believed him to be.
 
OK, you got me

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But I'm definitely not anti his horses
 
Telescope's performance in the Hardwicke will be rated one of the strongest middle distance performances of the season, rated stronger than Australia's Derby I think, the Hardwicke was the first time ive backed the horse in my life and the King George was the second. He is what he is, 1m4 on fast ground he is a strong horse, Australia should be beating him comfortably.

Australia is exceptional in that he is so uncomplicated, versatile and has such a strong engine, but he doesnt have the natural brilliance and talent of Kingman.
 
I would go for kingman in that race by the way, When he won over a mile so easily in the Irish Guineas it suggested that although he does have a scintillating burst he also stayed a true mile.

On your point about a horse remaining unbeaten risks not winning the hearts and minds of the punters I think it depends on what the public see. Frankel for instance retired unbeaten and whilst people can suggest he was protected the collateral form suggests he was the best and people will likely always regard him as such. Camalot even before coming unstuck in a sub standard St Leger was pulling the wool over only a few people's eyes even though unbeaten. I think beaten or not is the be all and end all, we know when a horse is avoiding the real tests that could be found. We respect needs of ground etc but we can also see a dodge. This is why Tagroodah is rightly lauded as she could have taken in a much easier option in the Irish Oaks but instead took on the boys and older horses...... and won.
 
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