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Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Sep 2, 2020.
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I have a treble with her.
Great effort from Alcohol Free but yet again the Fav wins when you are against it. Annoyingly the SP was 11/4 when you base your selection on it being 2/1 earlier. Alcohol Free was drawn wide, was a bit slowly away and wandered across a bit as well. She was staying on quite well but could not match Happy Romance's winning burst. The winner has been a good servant to the Hannon yard and she may have more to give yet now that she will have broken through the 100 barrier on official figures.
Dickiedooda didn't seem to see the 6th furlong out and I would imagine she will return to 5F now. The big disappointment was Time Scale, who seemed to have gone backwards since we last saw her. Maybe she needed the outing but it could well be that something kept her off the track for two months and whatever it was has not been resolved. Only a neck in front of a 79 rated filly today, she had 23 lbs in hand on official figures and that is miles off her mark.
I thought Pornstar Martini was rather a tasteless name for her a horse and she was 13th of the 13 today. That's one Pornstar that got well F***ed for sure. Serves the owners right.
Oh well second again. Looks like I will have to pay for my alcohol.
Closing up nicely having been settled in rear early when the 4th last appeared out of nowhere. He will win a similarly crap race soon.
The news gets worse. I thought Richard Hannon would run Mohowk King rather than Ventura Tormenta in Saturday's Sirenia Stakes. He's pulled BOTH of them out. Meanwhile, I didn't do Mystery Smiles for the contest because Andrew Balding said his next race would be the Mill Reef and yet the colt is amongst those declared for the race. Trainers eh? You can't trust a word that comes out of their mouths.
Toronto ran very well to finish second to the odds-on favourite, at 18-1 too! Definitely one for the notebook.
I'd initially given the owner some credit for selecting the appropriate race for Pornstar Martini (where would you find a pornstar if not in a Dick Pool/e ?) but the fact that it was a fillies' race rather kills that theory.
On the wider issue of late drifts by the top two or three in the betting, I think this is a topic that might repay some study. I bet almost entirely on the exchanges these days, but I've become convinced over the past few years that the overnight and morning betting forecasts ('tissues' for want of a better word) constantly and deliberately frame their prices so that the top two/three/four in the list take out a disproportionate share of the market. In the five minutes or so before the off, the market 'regularises' itself, with the result that some or all of the top three will drift, often markedly. Obviously, this won't be true all the time, and if none of them wins it doesn't matter anyway. I don't want to write a thesis, so I'll just leave the observation that if you intend to back a well-fancied horse, you'll make more money by either leaving the bet as late as possible, or by simply taking SP (including the BFSP on Betfair). By the same token, don't oppose your fancy just because it looks too short early in the day.
Given the breeding of Pornstar Martini I am surprised they didn't come up with a better name, being out of Misplace and being by Bungleinthejungle
Then again I am pretty sure the BHA would have been extra careful with the naming of that one.
Wait for Mullins-Elliot-Cheltenham.
Must of been the ale. Deleted from tracker
Only just Won but once pulled out for the clear run the result was not in doubt
Surprised no one has mentioned the mares bumper at Southwell - an MPR debutant trained by Lieutenant Henderson taking on two previous winner carrying the penalty - interesting with a capital I. Will it be G and Ts all round at Seven Barrows this evening?
Wish my predictive text could predict a winner
Opening show was 11/4 last evening and I went to back it before sitting down to do what would have been a glowing write-up, however as I clicked the name the price changed to 7/4. The rest as they say is history!
Eyecatching run from the Longsdon mare in third.
One One Seven runs today at Thirsk in the 3.15 dropped into a selling handicap with mark 2lb lower after showing some promise in 5th at Newcastle last time out. Will take another chance on this one.