The 4.55 Sandown sees an interesting field. The colt I have been looking at purely on the breeding is One Ruler.
By Dubawi out of Fintry. The dam was a decent sort with Andre Fabre and she won a Group 2 in her career which was generally just a shade short of Group 1 class. The same mating last year didn't pay off and the horse, Tolmount, was not seen until two days after Christmas and was then gelded after his second start in January this year, not being seen since. One Ruler will need to do better to justify early support from 3/1 into 6/4.
Interesting to see if the money keeps coming tomorrow because sometimes the vibes can change the following morning. At 6/4, I couldn't be a player.
Of the others, John Gosden has Third Kingdom, who, appropriately, was third on his sole start. Out of Make Believe, he was favourite at Newcastle that day but seemed to lack the pace to get involved. The 7th furlong this time should help him and experience could be a vital asset. The form of his last run is not that strong and he will need to improve. There were a couple of small race winners who emerged from it and in mitigation for some of the ones who ran down the field later on, they were taking on Group 2 company. The winner ran 6th in the Coventry next time and another horse was behind Tactical when he was thrown in deep.
Hannon has a few here and Hafez was very expensive at 400,000 Guineas. By Dark Angel, there is no support at 16/1.
Michael Stoute has Thunder Sun, a Siyouni colt who was 450,000 Guineas as a yearling. The market is cool on him at 7/1 and with Stoute they are usually likely to be better for the run.
Andrew Balding has Flyin' High, also a Siyouni colt and he is out of Zee Zee Top, so should we be giving All Our Loving to this one? He's definitely got legs but does he know how to use them? Quite prominent in the betting and as low as 4/1 in a place. Perhaps the fact that Kameko won this race last season is influencing the punters?
Conclusion:-
Can't back One Ruler blind at the odds. In the end it was a case of the "Bird in the hand, is worth two in Kate Bush" Third Kingdom has been off for nearly seven weeks and as a beaten fav last time, I wonder if they felt they needed to give him more time. He seemed all legs when I watched him last time and it is interesting that Gosden takes him here, as I am sure there would have been easier options. The 7F should suit and the trainer has had smart horses before who were not that great first time out. The odds of 10/3 appealed as a play on a horse who should at least be thereabouts with any improvement. If one of the newcomers is smart fair play to them.
4.55 Sandown Third Kingdom 10/3
