Thursday's Meetings Uttoxeter N/H 9 Races 12:35-4:40p.m. Leopardstown Flat 8 Races 100-4:30p.m. Pontefract Flat 8 Races 1:50-5:35p.m. Sandown(E) Flat 8 Races 4:20-8:00p.m. Limerick(E) N/H 8 Races 4:45-8:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
The 4.55 Sandown sees an interesting field. The colt I have been looking at purely on the breeding is One Ruler. By Dubawi out of Fintry. The dam was a decent sort with Andre Fabre and she won a Group 2 in her career which was generally just a shade short of Group 1 class. The same mating last year didn't pay off and the horse, Tolmount, was not seen until two days after Christmas and was then gelded after his second start in January this year, not being seen since. One Ruler will need to do better to justify early support from 3/1 into 6/4. Interesting to see if the money keeps coming tomorrow because sometimes the vibes can change the following morning. At 6/4, I couldn't be a player. Of the others, John Gosden has Third Kingdom, who, appropriately, was third on his sole start. Out of Make Believe, he was favourite at Newcastle that day but seemed to lack the pace to get involved. The 7th furlong this time should help him and experience could be a vital asset. The form of his last run is not that strong and he will need to improve. There were a couple of small race winners who emerged from it and in mitigation for some of the ones who ran down the field later on, they were taking on Group 2 company. The winner ran 6th in the Coventry next time and another horse was behind Tactical when he was thrown in deep. Hannon has a few here and Hafez was very expensive at 400,000 Guineas. By Dark Angel, there is no support at 16/1. Michael Stoute has Thunder Sun, a Siyouni colt who was 450,000 Guineas as a yearling. The market is cool on him at 7/1 and with Stoute they are usually likely to be better for the run. Andrew Balding has Flyin' High, also a Siyouni colt and he is out of Zee Zee Top, so should we be giving All Our Loving to this one? He's definitely got legs but does he know how to use them? Quite prominent in the betting and as low as 4/1 in a place. Perhaps the fact that Kameko won this race last season is influencing the punters? Conclusion:- Can't back One Ruler blind at the odds. In the end it was a case of the "Bird in the hand, is worth two in Kate Bush" Third Kingdom has been off for nearly seven weeks and as a beaten fav last time, I wonder if they felt they needed to give him more time. He seemed all legs when I watched him last time and it is interesting that Gosden takes him here, as I am sure there would have been easier options. The 7F should suit and the trainer has had smart horses before who were not that great first time out. The odds of 10/3 appealed as a play on a horse who should at least be thereabouts with any improvement. If one of the newcomers is smart fair play to them. 4.55 Sandown Third Kingdom 10/3
Grendel does it make much of a difference on these young ones when they were foaled? The newcomers range from 18 Jan (Hafez) to 19 April (Stigwood) - at only 2 yrs old that strikes me as quite an age gap...
Morning 3.50 Pontefract-Bint Australia Each Way @ 4-1 [Bet 365] Think she will give the 8-15 Fav a race
I don’t like Timoshenko in the first at Uttoxeter who carries a penalty for his win last time out. I thought he was flattered by racing in the optimum position in the field and the two who finished well probably should have been much closer at the finish in a cleaner run race. As such at short odds I’m taking him on. Leroy Brown is the interesting one for me, he’s got the good ground bumper form and whilst poor on two hurdles runs I can forgive those and I think he’s well worthy of an each way nibble
A full brother to Grade 1 hurdle winner Honeysuckle makes his debut in the bumper at Uttoxeter - Last Royal. 16/1 and friendless at the moment, all the money seems to be for the short-priced fav who has already won a bumper in Ireland.
Foals are generally born between January and May. That four month period is, as you say, a fairly significant percentage of a 2YO horse's life so far. It is generally thought that early foals should have an advantage because they will be more developed and perhaps physically stronger. I once did a survey on Guineas, Oaks and Derby winners over the previous 20 years and few were foaled in January or May but without knowing how many horses were foaled in each Month you don't know what percentage is represented from the horses in training. There are so many other factors to take into account, such as the sire's record with his youngsters and the trainer's record in having them ready first time out. The distance the race is over is also a big factor and I tend to find that once we reach 7F races for 2YO's some of the factors are less important. The biggest unknown with unraced horses is simply that we don't know how good they are and that's always a risk. Backing against newcomers with good pedigrees is always risking that there might be a special one in the field. You can only go on averages and Kameko won this race with a RPR of 83 last year. Third Kingdom was only rated 73 for his first race and obviously is unlikely to win this with that performance. The question is whether he can find 10 lbs or more today. He may do and still not win it but, as Jim Bowen used to say, "That's the gamble"
In that 4.55 Race at Sandown, they cannot give Thunder Sun and Flyin' High away. The latter is drifting alarmingly to 14/1. Third Kingdom and Forest Falcon are blue across the board, with some money on Stigwood at big odds.
Using that race as an example - the sire numbers from juveniles this years are - Horse Sire Runners Winners Win S/R Win & Plc Win & Plc S/R IV P/L Betfair Stigwood Kodiac 102 13 12.75 27 26.47 1.21 132.68 Hafez Dark Angel 52 7 13.46 9 17.31 1.13 23.82 One Ruler Dubawi 20 4 20 12 60 1.86 -3.51 Flyin' High / Thunder Sun Siyouni 19 3 15.79 8 42.11 1.42 -2.55 Swagger Pearl Secret 16 1 6.25 3 18.75 0.72 -14.05 Tanglewood Tales Nathaniel 2 0 0 2 100 0 -2 Third Kingdom Make Believe 6 0 0 1 16.67 0 -6 Forest Falcon Raven's Pass 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 Bagara Equiano 34 0 0 7 20.59 0 -34 So on those you would want to be with Stigwood (£132.68 to £1 level stakes) and Hafez (£23.82) in terms of number of winners by the sires, or One Ruler in terms of winning strike rate (20%) Interesting to see both Nathaniel runners have placed so far. Given the market and those numbers, you'd want One Ruler on your side, but I do think Hafez and Stigwood are worth a look too.
The front two in the market are too short for me to warm too although I would take the Murphy horse to beat Longsdons runner in receipt of weight. The trouble then is you are looking for an ew bet with probably only one place up for grabs. The one odddy pointed out is nicely bred and I quite like Kirby horse. If I had to have a bet then maybe an ew on TO DAAH.
Honestly I don't know why anyone would buy a horse from the Prescott yard, even more so now that Morris rides so many of them. I can't think of a proper genuine horse that he has in training. That one today is a rogue, he sweated up worse than Prince Andrew in a Pizza Express and he has a horrible running style too.
Hood and Tongue Tie for debut, the yard have had 17 runners with a hood and no winners. They seem to like the tongue tie though, most of their runners seem to have one. Paddy has his second ride for the yard.
In the 1.00 Leopardstown I had a small bet on Nicest. Trained by Donnacha O'Brien she is by American Pharoah out of Chiquita, who was a character but managed to win the Irish Oaks. Young O'Brien has already got a Prix Diane on his CV with Fancy Blue and perhaps the "Lads" have sent a decent one for him to train. O'Brien senior has the favourite in Willow but she doesn't set an insurmountable target with her debut 4th. By the same sire as Nicest and out of Peeping Fawn, she has ample talent in her pedigree as well. I thought Talacre would have been favourite and I was tempted at 2/1 for the daughter of Flintshire after her 2nd place on her first start. Little bits of money for Nicest and the odds of 9/1 tempted me towards her for a token bet. 1.00 Leopardstown Nicest 9/1
