Transfer Rumours The Summer 2024 Transfer Thread

[No27]

Maybe the toon were watching what happened with city's case.. it doesn't matter really they sold two players job done.

How they got there and why it was late is irrelevant . They did well.

 

[Roland Deschain]

Maybe the toon were watching what happened with city's case.. it doesn't matter really they sold two players job done.

How they got there and why it was late is irrelevant . They did well.

We'll have to disagree, we should not have been so desperate as to be offering Gordon to Liverpool.

 

[No27]

We'll have to disagree, we should not have been so desperate as to be offering Gordon to Liverpool.

I don't think they did offer him.. I think Liverpool failed to buy him because the baulked at what Newcastle wanted.

It might have had to happen because of time and demand I guess.

 

[Welshie]

I presume we woulda wanted like 80m for Gordon if we just sold Minteh for 30m

 

[FadgewackeR]

Must confess I was wrong with where I felt the numbers were. Looks increasingly like Ashworth money was also needed so we're probably talking about £70m or so to comply with what are becoming increasingly ludicrous rules.

There needs to be questions asked internally, why were we at the wire, why so last minute, how did it get to a possible position of needing to sell Gordon? It's not a great look and there's a lot of growing up needs to happen, and fast.

Hopefully this is the end of the issues for the foreseeable and we can now just concentrate on the playing side.

There's little to suggest that the Ashworth money was also needed, in fact quite the opposite could easily be true (I don't believe a thing from SSN when the Red Cartel are involved). When Man U realised we were fine for PSR with the 2 deals, for Anderson and Minteh, they had no leverage and have paid for Ashworth... it's easily as plausible.

One thing we do know is that we needed more than the sale of either of Minteh or Anderson. Be very interesting to see the published accounts for this bizarre little period.

 

[Darth Plagueis]

Losing anderson and minteh is fine. We made a big profit on Minteh without even playing him. We still have willock, miley and lonstaff to cover midfield.

We wont have european concerns. The same squad as last season should be enough to get us through a season where we have a big fixture advantage over our competition.

 

[G4rdToonArmy]

Wonder if there are any buy back clauses included - e.g. Brighton not making European football could mean Minteh will be available in a year or two for what we sold him for?

Anderson - could be good for his development with Bruno, Joelinton, Tonali and Willock all ahead of him in the pecking order for CM - he'll get more football at Forest than he would have here this season for sure and then if there's a buy back clause or for example if he has a release clause in the event they are relegated...

 

[Welshie]

Tonali is back

It's like a whole new signing!

 

[Mick O'Toon]

Wonder if there are any buy back clauses included - e.g. Brighton not making European football could mean Minteh will be available in a year or two for what we sold him for?

Anderson - could be good for his development with Bruno, Joelinton, Tonali and Willock all ahead of him in the pecking order for CM - he'll get more football at Forest than he would have here this season for sure and then if there's a buy back clause or for example if he has a release clause in the event they are relegated...

I ****ing hope so, remember scousers sold a player to Sheffield Utd and if he came good they come buy him back for what they sold him for, don't think he came good!

 

[G4rdToonArmy]

I ****ing hope so, remember scousers sold a player to Sheffield Utd and if he came good they come buy him back for what they sold him for, don't think he came good!

Brewster wasn't it?

 

[G4rdToonArmy]

Tonali is back

It's like a whole new signing!

Who is the next over the line?

 

[Roland Deschain]

I’m a little gutted on Minteh, but not much - £33m is a lot of money for someone who might be good. Biggest thing for me is Slot didn’t want to buy him.

Anderson is too nomadic in terms of best position. Maybe LW but we’re stocked there and certainly his output is nowhere near Barnes (even if I don’t rate him either).

We definitely needed to trim the squad anyway as I’ve said before. I’m mainly concerned because I’d rather we moved on from Ashley crap like Almiron, Murphy, Longstaff and Wilson. But it’s a new PSR era now, as Welshie says Tonali back is huge, and it’s really now about focusing on getting that RW, RCB, CF and probably GK and at a push CDM fixed.

That keeper is a bit crap mind. But will we still be in the market for another assuming Dubs will follow Karius out the door? I presume we’ll end up with Trafford. Thiaw RCB. CDM not a priority. Leaves RW and CF. Could well imagine both Elanga and Mbuemo turning up.

 

[Leo Billy]

Ruddy signs.

 

[Somebodys pinched my sombrero]

Ruddy signs.

WTF’s going on?
Are we going to field a team of keepers ffs?
Buying everyone’s has been cast offs?

 

[Darren Peacock’s Ponytail]

WTF’s going on?
Are we going to field a team of keepers ffs?
Buying everyone’s has been cast offs?

Means we’re selling Dubz

 

[No27]

I can't get up for this one..... @Roland Deschain

 

[FadgewackeR]

Means we’re selling Dubz

Good!

 

[G4rdToonArmy]

Means we’re selling Dubz

Agree but neither of those new keepers are fit to lace Popes boots so what happens if he gets another injury? Still going to need a new keeper in and then we are back to the point where these two who have signed aren't worth £1p/w as they'll never play.

Also shows there is very little faith in the academies keepers coming through that we choose to sign a 3rd and 4th choice keepers instead of giving a chance to the youngsters.

 

[No27]

WTF’s going on?
Are we going to field a team of keepers ffs?
Buying everyone’s has been cast offs?

It's almost as If the money isn't there

 

[GodAlmighty]

Newcastle really can't just afford to take punishments. This idea they should just take the punishments is ill thought out.

They have to follow the rules and in time they'll get closer. If they end up behaving like Everton they'll end up being like Everton.

The new squad cost ratio system is coming and the city legal case is worth keeping an eye on.... it's no time for daft decisions.

This is a case of playing the long game.

The thing is the reporters are still all guessing. The behaviour over the weekend seems to suggest something was afoot. When people follow accounts like Keiran Maguire (thought we were fine), Swiss Ramble (looks over previous accounts rather than predicting from what I see, ((Fadge knows better as he follows them)) and Steffan Borson (former Man City Finance director predicted an £8m loss) these guy's are all over the place and specialise in football finance.

All we know is the previous 2 year losses were total pre tax losses of £70.7m in season 21/22 and £73.4m in 22-23.

So starting point for psr at the begining of this season was - £116.1m (includes last 2 years allowable adjustments of £28m combined) Meaning we needed to make an £11.1m profit but an eye watering swing of £84.5m

All anyone can do is use previous years expenses as best they can and guesstimate.

Shirt Sponsorship

But if you simply take the £73.4m loss and add Sela's additional £17.5m to £20m (differs due to conflicting reports as to what Fun88 paid)
Gives us a loss of £53.4m - £55.9m but I'll go with larger loss for a more cynical view.

After new Sela Shirt deal we'd be at a £55.9m loss using previous accounts. £67m shy of PSR according to online reports

Champions league

We can then add in CL prize money of a reported £37m.Of which we didn't have last year so we can add this.

After Champions League we'd be at a £18.8m loss using previous accounts. £29.9m shy of PSR according to online reports.

I won't add CL gate receipts in order to counter last year's run to the cup final. so we're still at a loss of £18.8m

Transfers

I used Transfermarket for transfer fee's and contract lengths for both incoming and outgoing.

We sold ASM for £27.2m (transfermarket.com). we bought him for £18m (transfermarket.com) and he had 3 years left on his contract at time of sale.

£27.2m
-£9m (amount left to be amortised)
£18.2m profit

However according to accounts we made previous season sales of £3m (Shelvey)

So it's a £15.2m profit leaving us at a loss of £3.7m going off previous years accounts £14.9m shy of PSR according to online reports.

We sold Chris Wood for £17m (transfermarket.com). We bought him for £25m (transfermarket.com) and he had 1 year remaining of his contract at time of sale having signed an initial 2 1/2 year contract (SkySports) meaning we were still due £10m on his amortisation

£17m
-£10m
£7m profit

So its a £7m profit leaving us in profit of £3.3 going off previous years accounts £7.9m shy of PSR according to online reports.

Karl Darlow was sold for £400k (transfermarket.com) Can't possibly have still been amortising this ****er.

£400k profit now turns £3.3m profit into £3.7m profit. going off previous years accounts. still short by £7.5m.

After Transfers sales we'd be £3.7m in profit. Short of PSR by £7.5m

It's at this point everything goes completely unknown.

Partnerships

We have Saudia, Bet MGM, In-Post, Quidd, sportsbet.io, Fenwick

No idea how much these are worth as can't find any financials on them but if we said £1m each

After partnerships we'd be £9.7m in profit. Short of PSR by £1.5m (complete guestimates on anyones behalf)

Adidas

Adidas has kicked in now but long term effect wont be seen until now.

1 month of a £40m per annum deal would be £3,3m or of a £30m per annum deal £2.5m

If either of these are accounted for then we've reached PSR safety at this point.

Allowable Costs

Previous 2 years were £28m, This however included major redevelopment work of training ground and purchase of land at Strawberry Place. It also includes academy costs, womens team (who went profesional this year) and stadium costs.

No idea if or what costs of the Fan Zone are to the club, don't know if club is paying or Stack is paying.....

Likewise I know club have taken over Northumberland FA headquarters land next door to training ground and are ploughing on redeveloping that area. Don't know if this has been purchased or leased but the new state of the art media centre is going here.

With Allowable adjustments we're past PSR safety threshold according to online reports.

Now the **** bit

We signed Harvey Barnes, Tino Livramento, Sandro Tonali and Yakubah Minteh.

Harvey Barnes £35 5 year deal adds £7m per annum
Tino Livramento £35m 5 year deal adds £7m per annum
Sandro Tonali £55m 5 year deal adds £11m per annum
Yankubah Minteh £8m 5 year deal adds £1.6m per annum

This gives £26.6m a year additional amortisation costs, However you can deduct the £13m from this due to longer amortising ASM and Wood.

So 13.6m added costs.

We've also got a smaller prize fund from PL to take into account, no Sam Fender gig this year, no One Big Weekend this year, No daryah Cup this year. To counter this ticket prices went up 5% accross the board, and we got a reported £3m for playing in OZ.

Which means off transfers and other items its hellishly close to PSR without knowing Agents Fees, Bonuses, Salary increases etc.

It could go one way or other and would depend on allowable adjustments.

It would also depend on the so called experts being close to on the ball with their review of previous years accounts.

With hindsight my guess would be the Dan Ashworth Compo was what would have got us over the line comfortably.