Off Topic The QPR Not 606 Rolling Election Poll

If the Labour party think that they need to move further to the right to get elected, they might as well call it a day. We now have what will turn out to be a very nasty right-wing majority government supported by about a quarter of the electorate. There is no right-wing consensus.

 

Good start to the day with Yannis Varoufakis owning John "Mimi" Humphreys on the Today programme.
Mimi - You are going to have to cut pensions, aren't you?
Yannis - We could cut pensions, but we are not going to

Mimi - The Germans want their money back and will force you out of the Euro
Yannis - That's a Monty Python view of Germans. There are many different viewpoints in Germany, it hasn't crossed Chancellor Merkel's mind that Greece should leave the Euro

Mimi - You need much more austerity, don't you?
Yannis - We have cut our deficit from 15% to 3% in 3 years. No country in the history of capitalism has done more. We make George Osborne look like a profligate fool. [ I may have imagined the 'fool', but it fits]. Just re heard this he actually said 'it makes Osborne's consolidation look like profligacy galore'.

 

I would argue the opposite mate. The Pigs (Portugal, Ireland, Greece & Spain) got a lot of money from the EU and they squandered it all. Theirs was a mess entirely of their own making. The big Countries, I would think, put more money into the project than they receive. The small Countries the opposite. Germany has been bankrolling Greece & the others' fecklessness since their respective meltdowns.

 

We all have, not just Germany and we'll continue to do so until the tipping point, it's a grossly unequal union and the rules that were initially in place for six countries with fairly equal economies way back in the day are totally out of kilter with the current number of basket-case economies...

 

The only problem there is that because Germany exports 30% more than it imports they actually profit from a weak Euro. Also, partly because of this imbalance in their trade the Germans have neglected their domestic spending power for too long - strange to think that in this supposed 'success' nation a quarter of all German workers actually earn less than the French minimum wage - Germany could be the biggest market for products in Europe but is failing in this aspect. Had the World been dominated by the rhetoric of monetarist economics or so called 'austerity' in 1945 then the post war boom would never have happened. In particular Germany's recovery would not have been possible without the Marshall plan - it would be appropriate if the Germans remembered this more often.

 

I've had Germans in my company telling me the Euro is too weak for the German economy, covering up some of the issues you mention, despite the benefit to exports. At the same time it is still too strong for the weaker countries to spark their economies. Which is the argument for ever closer economic and political union in a nutshell.

 

According to Standard and Poor, which is just about to downgrade the UK credit rating, our economy is much closer to 'basket case' than we are being told, particularly in liquidity (129th out of 129) and undeliverable deficit reduction targets. Couldn't care less myself, none of it is real.

 

If you disregard the Scottish vote, which is simply nationalist, and N Ireland which is a law unto itself, the map of England and Wales is mostly blue, barring parts of London, South Wales and some Northern cities. However, going on votes alone, Tory plus UKIP ( if it's accepted these two are to the right) represent just under 50%, and Labour, Greens and LD's about 41%

Burnham is retreating from Miliband's negative position to one of aspiration and pro-business, and it seems Liz Kendall is pitching her leadership campaign about in about the same area. Yvette Cooper may stick more closely to failed policies and may be tainted the identity of her husband.

Can't help feeling David Miliband is watching in the wings, ready to bring back "New" Labour if it all goes wrong. As a union man, you probably won't agree with this, Strolls, but I think he'd be the best thing that could happen to Labour.

 

Strange co-oincidence that about the time that Obama announces that it's in US interests that the UK should stay in the EU, because it gives them easy entry into the Euro market, the US company Standard and Poors decide to downgrade us for having a referendum

 

The Scottish vote may be nationalist, but it is also genuinely left wing. I'm told by Scottish mates that the SNP has always been more left wing than mainstream Labour, which is news to me. Also that Scotland is a deeply divided country, the 50% who did not vote SNP feeling very marginalised indeed.

 

That's the way the market works, thought you were a fan of it.

 

The market is the best we've got, but it's far from perfect as we've seen from all those crooked bankers milking the system. S & P may need to look at their own "independence" to preserve their reputation

 

There's a pretty nasty vein running through the SNP, as has been seen recently by the bullying and abuse of Charlie Kennedy in the weeks before his death

 

The big swing to SNP at the last election may be nationalist, but it's definately an anti-Westminster vote. People up here are fed up with the same failed delivered promises from the centralised government, and wanted people to up for them. Labour couldn't do this (nor Tory or Lib-Dem) as the party is controlled from Westminster, which is why SNP got the big swing to them.

Immediately before the referendum, all the major parties ganged up and made aload of promises in the event of a No vote, yet only a day after they were already reneging on some of these. I believe most people up here don't want a true break up of the Union, would like to retain the Pound, our Forces and a few other items, but would like to have the opportunity for some form of self-governance (is this federalism? Not too switched on about most politics!)

 

Good to have you here to bring balance to the argument, SM

 

Well now you're going way OTT Winston 2. Its not a sense altruism that has the larger Countries seeking to improve the economies of the smaller ones. Its because it benefits themselves directly regarding investment and trade by having the entire Union in a healthy economic state. If that wasn't the case the whole concept of the EU would've fallen flat on its face. There's a reason why the UK has a very strong economy. Yes some small Countries made a mess of things and the Union isn't perfect but your old school Tory "we should be the boss" empire ideologies must be kept in check by saner people. COL's "we just want to rule ourselves" joke yesterday would've been extremely funny had I not half choked on my vomit in horror.

The baby won't be thrown out with the bathwater. We must continue to move forward with the confidence that we can overcome the present difficulties together.

 

Where have I said "we should be boss"? My point is that the original EU actually worked better as the members were fairly similar economies and it was a trade association in principal, not the bloated behemoth it has turned into.

The trouble with you socialists is the dream is light years from the reality, Greece has taken the piss for years and the rest of Europe suffers as the Euro reels from one crisis to the next, and there will be many more to come...

 

In 2011 it was estimated that Greece was about 10.2 Billion light in collectible taxes - over half their budget deficit for that year. The backdrop of this larger debate in which state coffers are dwindling is the root in which the wealthiest citizens and corporations of this World evade their share of tax by moving enormous sums to tax havens. The current estimate is that there are around 12 Trillion Dollars of unreported, financial wealth held in around 80 tax havens in the World. Should we not be moving towards helping countries like Greece recover their money by working more closely with the EU to end the financial privileges which some places use to allow money to simply disappear - by which I mean not only Switzerland, Luxembourg and Liechtenstein but also the age old privileges of the City of London.

 

In dismissing the Scottish vote as simply Nationalist you are ignoring the fact that the SNP stood on a left-wing anti-austerity ticket - the independence referendum had already been lost. There are very few Tories in Scotland.

It may seem reasonable to assume that all UKIP voters are right wing on economic issues, but it's not necessarily the case. Many natural Labour voters voted UKIP because they are frightened by immigration and UKIP preys on these fears.

The Tories are a minority party with no real mandate.The Labour party should recognise this and offer a real left-of-centre alternative. Labour didn't lose the election because they were too left-wing, they lost because the electorate fell for the constantly-repeated Tory fabrication about the last Labour government having caused the recession. Labour should have countered this lie at every turn, but were too timid to do so.

I've never been a union member by the way Goldie.

 

Fair point about the SNP. I think we can safely say Scotland is basically to the left. The point I was trying to make (poorly) is that if Labour move further to the left, it won't regain its seats in Scotland, unless the SNP mess up badly.

UKIP is something of an enigma, but still, I think, a right wing party. I accept that it took many votes from Labour, but those voters still voted for a right wing party...

I think the reason you give for Labour's failure is, with respect, too simplistic. It was a big part, sure, but most voters realised that Labour didn't cause a worldwide recession but did think Brown's government could have done more to prepare for a downturn instead of repeating the mantra "no more boom and bust."

Add to the reasons:

- Labour losing Scotland to the SNP over the "Westminster" thing
- English voters being concerned over a Labour/SNP pact
- not seeing that voters wanted an EU referendum
- Lib Dem voters turning Tory
- UKIP
- Tory relative success on the economy (strongest growth in Europe)
- Lack of aspiration/ negative strategy for growth
- wrong Miliband as leader

The Tories are faced with an opposition in disarray. Labour and SNP seem to be clashing more than with government. Of course, the Tories may face their own problems as the EU referendum approaches.

If Labour do move to the left, they will to quite a large extent be dependent on (a) the Tories mishandling the economy and/or something serious like sleaze allegations and, as said above (b) voters in Scotland falling out of love with the SNP. The ball will not longer be in their court, but if they move right in New Labour style, whilst losing Scotland (which may be a lost cause anyway), they can possibly eat into the Tory majority and if UKIP voters come back to them after the referendum, that may give them a chance in the 2120 general election.

That's how I see it anyway. And finally, apologies for pigeon-holing you, Strolls! I seem to recall you saying in an earlier post you were thinking of voting TUSC and made an unwarranted assumption. I am, anyway, a big believer in unions, that maintain the balance with employers. As long as both sides act reasonably, it works to everyone's advantage.