Off Topic The Politics Thread

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Should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave?

  • Stay in

    Votes: 56 47.9%

  • Get out

    Votes: 61 52.1%
  • Total voters
    117
  • Poll closed .
sb_73 said:
Given that our net contributions to the EU are about £10bn a year, and we won’t be paying this anymore, about 4 years.

I don’t think we will be expected to give £40bn upfront though. If we give £10bn a year for 4 years it’s the same as now.

But we won’t be getting the subsidies/grants that we currently do from the EU and will have to replace at least some of those from our own budget, so it’s not entirely straightforward.

Of course that doesn’t take into account the potential extra costs of new customs, immigration etc arrangements and potential slower economic growth that predicted if we stayed in.
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The subsidies and grants are taken into account in the 10bn current contributions, since it's a net figure.

Some part of the £40bn is not intended to be clawed back as it is payment for liabilities - projects, pensions etc

We will get money back from the European Bank but over a long period.

I don't take much notice of slower economic growth predictions, since they are made by economists that got it very wrong in the months post the Brexit referendum.
 
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sb_73 said:
Given that our net contributions to the EU are about £10bn a year, and we won’t be paying this anymore, about 4 years.

I don’t think we will be expected to give £40bn upfront though. If we give £10bn a year for 4 years it’s the same as now.

But we won’t be getting the subsidies/grants that we currently do from the EU and will have to replace at least some of those from our own budget, so it’s not entirely straightforward.

Of course that doesn’t take into account the potential extra costs of new customs, immigration etc arrangements and potential slower economic growth that predicted if we stayed in.
Click to expand...

Thanks mate.
 
ELLERS said:
<yikes> Bloody BBC!
On a serious note and as I said yesterday Germany having problems could help us out. Agree uncertainty is not the way to go but for once it's not May having a bad day it's Merkel (queen of the EU). People have been saying for months that all the UK uncertainty makes our hand weaker and the EU stronger so I guess the flip side to that is now the leader of the EU is going through problems then it should ease the strain on us? or does it not work the other way around because Brexit is wrong?
Interesting what Gisela Stuart MP said today. She went to BMW in Germany to meet officials and said they want a deal with the UK and not to punish them. German cars employ 750K workers and sell 800K cars to UK. Says it all.
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I suspect the uncertainty on both sides will just make it harder to reach a conclusion.

Of course the German car makers want a deal which makes it easy to export to the U.K., or preferably no Brexit. But they will still be able to sell us cars in the event of WTO rules, just like they do to the US and most of the rest of the world now. They will either put prices up to compensate or take a hit on margins (which is what they do in the US).
GoldhawkRd said:
Germany may find it loses Bavaria, which from memory, has pressed for a Brexit-style referendum this year
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Like the Spanish constitution, the German one does not allow individual provinces to break away. The Constitutional Court there threw out a referendum request in January, with no resulting upset. I wonder which side the allegedly all powerful BMW would campaign on.
GoldhawkRd said:
The subsidies and grants are taken into account in the 10bn current contributions, since it's a net figure.

Some part of the £40bn is not intended to be clawed back as it is payment for liabilities - projects, pensions etc

We will get money back from the European Bank but over a long period.

I don't take much notice of slower economic growth predictions, since they are made by economists that got it very wrong in the months post the Brexit referendum.
Click to expand...
But we still need to decide whether to continue to fund what comes out of the EU coffers at present.

The economists may have over exaggerated their post referendum predictions but inflation has gone up and growth has slowed compared to both the EU and US.
 
They will either put prices up to compensate or take a hit on margins (which is what they do in the US).

BMW builds over 400,000 cars in the US and is the largest exporter of cars from the US than anyone else.
 
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sb_73 said:
I suspect the uncertainty on both sides will just make it harder to reach a conclusion.

Of course the German car makers want a deal which makes it easy to export to the U.K., or preferably no Brexit. But they will still be able to sell us cars in the event of WTO rules, just like they do to the US and most of the rest of the world now. They will either put prices up to compensate or take a hit on margins (which is what they do in the US).

Like the Spanish constitution, the German one does not allow individual provinces to break away. The Constitutional Court there threw out a referendum request in January, with no resulting upset. I wonder which side the allegedly all powerful BMW would campaign on.

But we still need to decide whether to continue to fund what comes out of the EU coffers at present.

The economists may have over exaggerated their post referendum predictions but inflation has gone up and growth has slowed compared to both the EU and US.
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There does seem to be a movement in the EU away from federalism. It's moderate at the moment, and if Merkel calls another election, this may cast a light on further changes of attitude in Germany.

I'd say it's not so much the prospect of being outside the EU that is influencing the UK economy (and it's not all bad, with record low unemployment) but rather the uncertainties that are inevitable with such a major change. It will take some years for the real Brexit influence to kick in, once relations with the EU are regularised and we have bilaterals in place with non-EU economies.
 
durbar2003 said:
Why can German States sign international deals but England, Scotland Wales and NI cant?
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The German states have the right to sign International agreements with the consent of the federal government. These are normally economic or environmental and must be of direct consequence to the state concerned. One of the oldest international agreements is between Bavaria and Austria - something concerning the salination of salt (relatively unimportant). There are also agreements between Bavaria and the Czech Republic - because they have a national park shared between them. A similar situation applies to Belgium and North Rhine Westphalia, concerning the admin. of the Eifel and Ardennes. These are nearly always with neighbouring countries to the state concerned.
 
durbar2003 said:
3 series are made in Germany.
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Which ones are made in the US?

Cars are generally cheaper there I think. And dealers have to carry a lot of stock to cater for the buyer desire to turn up, choose and drive off in their new car, so I’m told. Unlike here where you wait for months for them to build and ship thee ****er.
 
colognehornet said:
The German states have the right to sign International agreements with the consent of the federal government. These are normally economic or environmental and must be of direct consequence to the state concerned. One of the oldest international agreements is between Bavaria and Austria - something concerning the salination of salt (relatively unimportant). There are also agreements between Bavaria and the Czech Republic - because they have a national park shared between them. A similar situation applies to Belgium and North Rhine Westphalia, concerning the admin. of the Eifel and Ardennes. These are nearly always with neighbouring countries to the state concerned.
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Your Idea of international is trade with of EU countries!
 
sb_73 said:
Which ones are made in the US?

Cars are generally cheaper there I think. And dealers have to carry a lot of stock to cater for the buyer desire to turn up, choose and drive off in their new car, so I’m told. Unlike here where you wait for months for them to build and ship thee ****er.
Click to expand...

From Google

The BMW US Manufacturing Company, also known as BMW Spartanburg, is a vehicle assembly facility for BMW Group and is located in Spartanburg, South Carolina;[9] it is BMW's only assembly plant in the United States. The plant is currently BMW's sole global production site for X3, X4, X5, and X6 crossover SUVs whose biggest market is the U.S., while other BMW models sold in the U.S. market are imported
 
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Staines R's said:
Can I ask a simple question ? (Though I doubt there is a simple answer)

How long is it estimated that it will take this country to ‘claw back’ £40 billion from when we stop making contributions to the EU ?
I know this probably isn’t that straight forward but have any projections been made ?
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We are the second largest net contributor to Europe. You would have thought we could get that money back quickly but I have a feeling that the £350M a week won't be going to the NHS.
 
Official figures for the UK contributions to the EU
By johnredwood | Published: November 21, 2017
The official HMT and OBR figures for 2016 shows the following

Total gross contributions £23.148 billion (£445m a week)
Gross contributions less rebate £17.865 bn (£343 m a week)
Gross contribution less rebate and monies paid back to the UK through EU programmes £11.73bn (£225 m a week)

The gross contributions are made up from
Customs revenues £3.347bn
VAT EU share £3.647bn
GNI levy £16.154bn

We need some new estimates of what customs levies would bring in were we to opt for the WTO model. Indicative figures are that the UK would levy £12bn on EU imports into the UK. This money would be available to give back to UK consumers as tax cuts and benefit increases, so customers were not worse off if they wished to continue to buy so much EU product. The EU would levy £5bn on UK exports to the EU, which would still leave our products more competitive than two years ago before the rise of the Euro.
 
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