Off Topic The Politics Thread

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Should the UK remain a part of the EU or leave?

  • Stay in

    Votes: 56 47.9%

  • Get out

    Votes: 61 52.1%
  • Total voters
    117
  • Poll closed .
sb_73 said:
I’d have thought you’d delighted th this is Goldie, excellent propaganda ‘the enemy within plotting with the foreign enemy’. Corbyn is much more pro Brexit than May. His nationalisation plans and state support for industry don’t stand a chance under EU rules.

I think you are right about about freedom of movement post Brexit, which means we will have a trade deal a la Canada rather than a Norway/Switzerland type deal. Which will take an age to agree, hence the need for a transitional period.

You’re sick of it, I’m sick of it, everybody’s ****ing sick of it. I don’t know what May’s offer was apart from ‘meet our obligations’, we still have to agree what our obligations are so far as I know. I’m sure you are right that the EU is stalling, because the cash is the biggest bargaining chip we have, and the longer it goes without agreement the more desperate we will get. This has been an adversarial negotiation since day one, and May set the tone for that, though she has backed off since. Juncker has played his part too, and some of those idiots in the EU Parliament.

Someone has to do something to keep the planes flying, just because it is mind numbingly obvious that they should doesn’t guarantee that they will. Such is the lunacy of our times.

I’m watching a tv programme because it’s raining and some idiot is letting off fireworks so o can’t walk the dog. The programme is about people who defraud social housing by sub letting etc. It makes me want to smash something to bits.
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Canada, perhaps on free movement. Switzerland allows freedom of movement of EU citizens.
 
sb_73 said:
They don’t have to Goldie. They just have to cut their margins a bit, which will more than cover the 10% WTO tariff. Given that BMW have just cut their margin to dealers in the US (where they sell under WTO rules) by 40%, they are obviously familiar with the concept. They probably want a deal more to stop a permanent devaluation of the £ which would really hammer their profits. Trade won’t stop with no deal, the terms of trade will change - we will either have to pay more or importers will have to cut prices to maintain volume. Or exports should be fine, except for agricultural stuff where the tariffs are huge, because the slump in sterling more than compensates for the cost of tariffs.

The car market is dying on its feet as people are stuck with massive depreciation on the diesels we were told to buy and can’t afford to trade on. My spy in JLR tells me they expect to sell more than 100,000 cars less worldwide in 2018 than they did in 2016 - nearly 20%.
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In practice, you're right Stan, on cutting margins in the event of a No Deal. I was just referring to BD's point that they would sell to someone else. We'll continue to be a major market for EU goods. It's clear the German car market is anxious that a trade deal is reached. At some stage, this will percolate through to Merkel, and Macron will face the same pressures from Renault, Citroen etc
 
GoldhawkRd said:
In practice, you're right Stan, on cutting margins in the event of a No Deal. I was just referring to BD's point that they would sell to someone else. We'll continue to be a major market for EU goods. It's clear the German car market is anxious that a trade deal is reached. At some stage, this will percolate through to Merkel, and Macron will face the same pressures from Renault, Citroen etc
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We won't be able to afford new cars, Goldie.
 
GoldhawkRd said:
Nissan and the others aren't going anywhere, particularly after the tax breaks we'll give them with net EU savings of circa 10bn p.a.. We have a great workforce here.
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What about the £350m per week for the NHS? In reality there will be no spare cash because we'll most likely be in recession. We do indeed have a great workforce, but they've been sold down the river.
 
GoldhawkRd said:
We are Germany's biggest export market for cars. Where are they going to replace that?
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My comment said IF we don't buy from the EU (which was aimed at Cols point, that they need our business more than we need theirs). I don't think we'll stop buying from them, but we might find they stop buying from us and compete against the people we do need to sell to in the future. If anyone has any money left to buy cars, that is.
 
TheBigDipper said:
My comment said IF we don't buy from the EU (which was aimed at Cols point, that they need our business more than we need theirs). I don't think we'll stop buying from them, but we might find they stop buying from us and compete against the people we do need to sell to in the future. If anyone has any money left to buy cars, that is.
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...and my point is that if we don't buy from German car manufacturers, they'd be hard pressed to find the new markets to which you refer to make up the loss
 
Stroller said:
What about the £350m per week for the NHS? In reality there will be no spare cash because we'll most likely be in recession. We do indeed have a great workforce, but they've been sold down the river.
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£350m pw and a Brexit created recession aren't facts. Annual savings of circa £10bn are
 
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TheBigDipper said:
My comment said IF we don't buy from the EU (which was aimed at Cols point, that they need our business more than we need theirs). I don't think we'll stop buying from them, but we might find they stop buying from us and compete against the people we do need to sell to in the future. If anyone has any money left to buy cars, that is.
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They won’t stop buying from us because our stuff will be sensationally cheap. But all we seem to be talking about is the trade in things rather than the trade in services, which is much more important as an export to us. I have no idea what they are discussing here. There is a powerful incentive (profit) for European countries to develop their own service sectors, and many of the companies involved are global and quite happy to shift their operations about, often it’s just office space.
 
GoldhawkRd said:
£350m pw and a Brexit created recession aren't facts. Annual savings of circa £10bn are
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Net U.K. contribution to EU 2016 £8.6bn. How much will we spend on increased customs and immigration services, setting up all our own regulatory agencies, new trade negotiators and monitors etc etc.? After maintaining the £4.5bn we get from the EU for farmers and the poorer regions. So the Brexit ‘dividend’ is about £4bn a year, and I’m betting more than that will be spent on things we need to put in place to replace things we got from being in the EU.

There are no savings.
 
TootingExcess said:
All those cars made in the U.K. we currently export to the EU? It's why jaguar are expanding in Austria
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We're hardly a car exporting nation, unlike Germany and France. Big incentive for them to maintain ease of access to our market.

I see Merkel has suggested tonight that a trade talk start may be approved in December
 
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sb_73 said:
Net U.K. contribution to EU 2016 £8.6bn. How much will we spend on increased customs and immigration services, setting up all our own regulatory agencies, new trade negotiators and monitors etc etc.? After maintaining the £4.5bn we get from the EU for farmers and the poorer regions. So the Brexit ‘dividend’ is about £4bn a year, and I’m betting more than that will be spent on things we need to put in place to replace things we got from being in the EU.

There are no savings.
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If some of the money is used for control of borders including security and negotiating worldwide trade deals, then it's money well spent
 
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