Off Topic The Politics Thread

[sb_73]

For anyone not up to speed with what's going on in Syria, really recommend listening to this if you want a full synopsis of what is happening...

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https://open.spotify.com/episode/1vxxKmtyMq1Jt7fAfT3pZa?si=AvTgDpUpTgm2OY21oYRDYw

Damascus will fall by next weekend, Erdoğan backing HTS who have effectively blown Assad's fragile hold on the country. They are 'liberating' cities with little or no tribal or ethic retribution

Endless flights shuttling between Damascus and Dubai as the Alawite elite do a runner with their billions

Now all the Syrian efugees in Lebanon heading home

For the ignorant (i.e. me) how Islamic fundamentalist are HTS? Genius timing to make this push with Russia and Iran/Hezbollah otherwise occupied. But are we looking at Taliban#2?

Sorry Steelsy didn’t listen to the podcast, which I’m sure answers these things.

 

[Steelmonkey]

For the ignorant (i.e. me) how Islamic fundamentalist are HTS? Genius timing to make this push with Russia and Iran/Hezbollah otherwise occupied. But are we looking at Taliban#2?

Sorry Steelsy didn’t listen to the podcast, which I’m sure answers these things.

I'll try and summarize...forgive me if I get any of this wrong as it's quite complicated

Al-Julani and his HTS not as extreme as Taliban I think. They used to have jihadist views, but al-Julani has seen the mistakes made by Al Qaeda (after he split from Al-Qaeda he called for their dissolution) and ISIS and has moderated their doctrine. HTS still want an Islamic state, but from what I understand they accept that other faiths and ethnicities need to live alongside (although still restricted to sharia law).

There's multiple factors at play here...the Syrian regime are backed by Russia/Wagner, Hezbollah and Iranian backed Iraqi militias.. Erdogan made several attempts to drag Assad to the table to talk deals, which Assad and his ego turned down. Al-Julani then managed to talk deals with Erdogan, so he's turning a blind eye to what's happening at the moment.

HTS waited for the Israeli ceasefire with Hezbollah before launching their offensive as they didn't want to be seen to be siding with the Israelis. Once the offensive was launched, the Kurds saw their chance, and have launched an offensive of their own. Iraqi militias have been trying to enter the fray via the Iraq/Syria border, and have been bombed to pieces by either Israelis or the US (unknown at the moment). Their are also various jihadist groups taking the opportunity to seize territory - Assad may fall soon, but what happens after coukd be a real mess. Syrian refugees from both north and south are returning home.

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

Seems my forecast was wildly optimistic

HTS already encircled Damascus and will enter tonight

Labrov in Doha today saying Russia is out of Syria now

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

My Christian Syrian friends very worried for their parents stuck in Tartus, they will struggle to leave, all very worrying

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

Hezzbollah deployed 2,000 to secure the lebanese border

 

[Steelmonkey]

Seems my forecast was wildly optimistic

HTS already encircled Damascus and will enter tonight

Labrov in Doha today saying Russia is out of Syria now

My Christian Syrian friends very worried for their parents stuck in Tartus, they will struggle to leave, all very worrying

Hezzbollah deployed 2,000 to secure the lebanese border

Wow, that's escalated a lot quicker than expected. Let's hope it doesn't turn into a total bloodbath

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

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[sb_73]

So if the rebels take over and somehow form a coherent government and avoiding a slaughter is that another Saudi ally in place? I lose track.

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

So far and as Steelys said, HTS are playing the role of peaceful liberator

No one believes that

Retribution on the alawites and Christians will definitely follow

 

[Steelmonkey]

So if the rebels take over and somehow form a coherent government and avoiding a slaughter is that another Saudi ally in place? I lose track.

They're anti-Iranian, if that helps...

"Iran too, looks likely to be the loser in this situation. Aside from its ally, Lebanese Hezbollah, Iran's principle partner in the Middle East has been Syria's Assad regime. If that were to fall then Iran's power, already waning, will be seriously curtailed."

And no friend to the Russians either...

"Bombing raids by Russia's air force, based at the Syrian airbase of Hmeimim, have been unable to stop the Islamist-led rebels from seizing the two major cities of Aleppo and Hama.

If the rebels press home their advantage and eventually succeed in toppling the repressive Syrian rule of Bashar al-Assad, then Russia's gains in propping up that regime will be undone at a stroke.

Russia does have a back-up plan if it is forced to abandon its Mediterranean naval facility at Tartus. It will likely relocate its forces to Libya, but it would still be a major strategic setback for Moscow."

 

[Steelmonkey]

So far and as Steelys said, HTS are playing the role of peaceful liberator

No one believes that

Retribution on the alawites and Christians will definitely follow

Also from BBC...

For his part, the leader of HTS, Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, has been making public remarks to soften his image and reassure both Syrians and foreign leaders.

He has emphasized his split years ago from Islamic State and Al Qaeda, presenting himself as a nationalist opposed to attacks outside Syria, and promising protection for minority communities.

In an interview with CNN, al-Jawlani said the goal of the rebel forces was to overthrow the Assad regime and install a government that represents all Syrians.

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

No one believes that

All Christians are fleeing but with the lebanese border closed it's a bad situation

 

[Steelmonkey]

No one believes that

All Christians are fleeing but with the lebanese border closed it's a bad situation

Yeah, a lot of ex-jihadists in HTS, who have a track record of brutality. You're a lot closer than me, so can get a better feel of what's going on...maybe the Christian community need to head to the territory controlled by the Kurds - lesser of all evils?

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

My lebanese mates wife is Syrian Christian

Her parents went back to Tartus 2 weeks ago for business reasons. It's a major Russian base and HTS going straight in

Now they are totally f******

Many booking boats to.Cyprus but without a visa and the Cypriots taking a hard line

All happening too.fast and showing that the western powers and totally behind the game

 

[Steelmonkey]

My lebanese mates wife is Syrian Christian

Her parents went back to Tartus 2 weeks ago for business reasons. It's a major Russian base and HTS going straight in

Now they are totally f******

Many booking boats to.Cyprus but without a visa and the Cypriots taking a hard line

All happening too.fast and showing that the western powers and totally behind the game

Tango man stepping up to plate

Syria is a mess, Trump says

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Image source,Reuters
US President-elect Donald Trump says that "Syria is a mess, but is not our friend".

In a post on Truth Social, he adds that " THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!"

 

[sb_73]

No one believes that

All Christians are fleeing but with the lebanese border closed it's a bad situation

Can Hezbollah close the northern Lebanese borders? I thought that was way out of their territory. What has happened to the Christian and Druze militias, let alone the actual Lebanese security forces if such things exist?

 

[kiwiqpr]

Yeah, a lot of ex-jihadists in HTS, who have a track record of brutality. You're a lot closer than me, so can get a better feel of what's going on...maybe the Christian community need to head to the territory controlled by the Kurds - lesser of all evils?

If the Turks are backing hts then going to a Kurdish controlled area might only be for short term safety

 

[WBA2_QPR3]

Can Hezbollah close the northern Lebanese borders? I thought that was way out of their territory. What has happened to the Christian and Druze militias, let alone the actual Lebanese security forces if such things exist?

Hezzbollah senior command hugely degraded but at a lower operational level they are fully integrated into everyday life

They still retain control and support from the Shia population

The Lebanese army is a joke and the Druze staying well out of this

 

[Stroller]

I'm finding it hard to give too much of a **** about what goes on in Syria. I'm somewhat educated by some of the knowledgeable posts on here, but I remain mostly clueless about who the good guys might be, and I suspect it's none of the various political groups involved. I'm terribly sad, though, for all the ordinary people caught up in this ****. It's a horribly depressing World at the moment.

 

[kiwiqpr]

I'm finding it hard to give too much of a **** about what goes on in Syria. I'm somewhat educated by some of the knowledgeable posts on here, but I remain mostly clueless about who the good guys might be, and I suspect it's none of the various political groups involved. I'm terribly sad, though, for all the ordinary people caught up in this ****. It's a horribly depressing World at the moment.

No good guys