Off Topic The Politics Thread

[danishqp]

My take - May has just realised she can't win either way. By putting a delay/No deal question to open vote she has just absolved herself and likely the Tories from much more blame.
Here's the crux for the future - If, the UK stays within the EU persay even in a fudge deal, we are in for some torrid years ahead anyway, who is going to pay for that politically?
I'd say it is the break up of the Labour party for sure.
There will be splits in the Tories, but this breed have a habit of being that bit further into the trough, that thye end up back next to each other.

The winners? - Brexiteers and Blairites.
Brexiteers as they can harp on ad finitum on the chance that was missed and the betrayal of it all - also, look at how bad it is now (and it will be bad)
Blairites, as they will get ultra socialism off the table and can quaff their Sancerre in politically correct bliss.
Big Business that can carry on doing what they want, how they want.

Losers?
Everyone earning less than 120K per annum per average household.

 

[sb_73]

oh gosh the remoaners are all coming out! Let me explain Sb.... Stroller posted polls from a remain paper and told me "I don't get opinion polls". All I said was you shouldn't trust polls as during the last referendum they said it was going to be 'Remain'. I am not wrong, he was. Stop trying to justify his comments because I proved him wrong.

Have a careful read of this and your previous post and then add ‘proof’.

What about the important news from Germany?

 

[bc7]

I think the potential damage to the Labour vote in backing a new referendum is being overstated.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/may/29/labour-mps-fear-brexit-voters-unfounded-study

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...100-pro-leave-constituencies-switch-to-remain

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...abour-seats-back-second-referendum-study-says

All from the Guardian, so safe for Ellers to ignore.

I've just had a quick look at these results and I think think they've put a massive positive spin on their polling:


DON VALLEY

ELECTION 2015 2017

LABOUR 19,621 24,351 +4,730 +7%
CONSERVATIVE 10,736 19,182 +8,446 +16%
UKIP 9,963 - -23%

The UKIP vote, one would assume, was almost 100% leave and was split between the main two parties. Their vote share was -10.8% throughout the country
with Labour +9.5% & Conservative +5.5%. In the three constituencies highlighted in the above report, all had a larger swing to Conservative than the average. This makes me think some 'cherry picking' with the chosen constituencies has gone on.
In the above constituency, if the 4,730 increase for Labour were former UKIP supporters, this would become a very tight result in the future, especially if they felt betrayed.

This is, of course, just one way of looking at the figures, but I genuinely believe that the former UKIP vote will be the important one in the next general election.

If we are still in the EU in May, and are allowed to hold elections (I doubt whether the EU will allow it, even though the rules say they must), I think the backlash will be huge.

 

[ELLERS]

Have a careful read of this and your previous post and then add ‘proof’.

What about the important news from Germany?

Yeah just like the usual suspects last week? You all stick together and gang up. Not interested in re-reading. I know what I and Stroller said... if you can't work it out then that's your problem. No point in posting my conversation in Germany for you and the others to mock it. TBH i am bored with debating with some on here because it's the same old crap.... they are never wrong even when they are.

 

[danishqp]

Have a careful read of this and your previous post and then add ‘proof’.

What about the important news from Germany?

Shocked at just how great Hamburg and Berlin are.
Driving me mad that I couldn't sample any of the delicious looking beers (10.5 KG off now).
Germans are still thoroughly nice respectful people.
Really great value for money and just really impressed - I will make sure to go privately, just a 3 hour drive from me.

Is that what you were hoping for?
Oh, their opinion on Brexit and the EU? They couldn't give (and I'm paraphrasing) 2 flying f...!!
They appear as bored as everbody else.

 

[sb_73]

Yeah just like the usual suspects last wee? You all stick together and gang up. Not interested in re-reading. I know what I and Stroller said... if you can't work it out then that's your problem. No point in posting my conversation in Germany for you and the others to mock it. TBH i am bored with debating with some on here because it's the same old crap.... they are never wrong even when they are.

100% agree, same old crap.

 

[ELLERS]

I've just had a quick look at these results and I think think they've put a massive positive spin on their polling:


DON VALLEY

ELECTION 2015 2017

LABOUR 19,621 24,351 +4,730 +7%
CONSERVATIVE 10,736 19,182 +8,446 +16%
UKIP 9,963 - -23%

The UKIP vote, one would assume, was almost 100% leave and was split between the main two parties. Their vote share was -10.8% throughout the country
with Labour +9.5% & Conservative +5.5%. In the three constituencies highlighted in the above report, all had a larger swing to Conservative than the average. This makes me think some 'cherry picking' with the chosen constituencies has gone on.
In the above constituency, if the 4,730 increase for Labour were former UKIP supporters, this would become a very tight result in the future, especially if they felt betrayed.

This is, of course, just one way of looking at the figures, but I genuinely believe that the former UKIP vote will be the important one in the next general election.

If we are still in the EU in May, and are allowed to hold elections (I doubt whether the EU will allow it, even though the rules say they must), I think the backlash will be huge.

NOOOOO bc he can't be wrong! watch out because you went against the 'usual suspects'

 

[danishqp]

Yeah just like the usual suspects last wee? You all stick together and gang up. Not interested in re-reading. I know what I and Stroller said... if you can't work it out then that's your problem. No point in posting my conversation in Germany for you and the others to mock it. TBH i am bored with debating with some on here because it's the same old crap.... they are never wrong even when they are.

But that's the beauty of this thread and the whole damn thing -
Before -No one knows, no one's right, no one's wrong.
Afterwards -Whatever happens there will be enough for the entire status quo to remain.

It's all just a wonderful ploy to get the UK away from the World stage - didn't you all realise that?
As I often say, the most heinuos personal crime in life is to be boring - the UK has manged that in spades and no one wants it at the "real party" where the comestibles and libations are flowing - roll on April 1st.
Whisky Belt?
I'm going to need a Champagne, Gin & Beer Belt!!
Come on you delightful crostinis with some Chilli Confit de Canard wraps.

 

[ELLERS]

But that's the beauty of this thread and the whole damn thing -
Before -No one knows, no one's right, no one's wrong.
Afterwards -Whatever happens there will be enough for the entire status quo to remain.

It's all just a wonderful ploy to get the UK away from the World stage - didn't you all realise that?
As I often say, the most heinuos personal crime in life is to be boring - the UK has manged that in spades and no one wants it at the "real party" where the comestibles and libations are flowing - roll on April 1st.
Whisky Belt?
I'm going to need a Champagne, Gin & Beer Belt!!
Come on you delightful crostinis with some Chilli Confit de Canard wraps.

 

[ELLERS]

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[Stroller]

I've just had a quick look at these results and I think think they've put a massive positive spin on their polling:


DON VALLEY

ELECTION 2015 2017

LABOUR 19,621 24,351 +4,730 +7%
CONSERVATIVE 10,736 19,182 +8,446 +16%
UKIP 9,963 - -23%

The UKIP vote, one would assume, was almost 100% leave and was split between the main two parties. Their vote share was -10.8% throughout the country
with Labour +9.5% & Conservative +5.5%. In the three constituencies highlighted in the above report, all had a larger swing to Conservative than the average. This makes me think some 'cherry picking' with the chosen constituencies has gone on.
In the above constituency, if the 4,730 increase for Labour were former UKIP supporters, this would become a very tight result in the future, especially if they felt betrayed.

This is, of course, just one way of looking at the figures, but I genuinely believe that the former UKIP vote will be the important one in the next general election.

If we are still in the EU in May, and are allowed to hold elections (I doubt whether the EU will allow it, even though the rules say they must), I think the backlash will be huge.

The Don Valley example you cite is one where UKIP's share of the vote in 2015 was particularly high, and the majority of these 2015 UKIP votes seem to have reverted to the Tories in 2017. Doesn't this bear out the suggestion that Leave voters in this constituency were predominately Tory, and that Labour therefore has less to fear here from changing its Brexit stance than has been suggested?

 

[bc7]

The Don Valley example you cite is one where UKIP's share of the vote in 2015 was particularly high, and the majority of these 2015 UKIP votes seem to have reverted to the Tories in 2017. Doesn't this bear out the suggestion that Leave voters in this constituency were predominately Tory, and that Labour therefore has less to fear here from changing its Brexit stance than has been suggested?

Maybe, but it looks like they’ve deliberately chosen a constituency where the swing from UKIP to the conservatives was much higher than the average (overall 2 to 1 labour, but here 2 to 1 conservatives). They have then used this to extrapolate the result country wide. That may be how it pans out in the future, but it seems to me like a very optimistic forecast to use when gambling with your party’s future(and perhaps existence)

 

[Staines R's]

If we do have another referendum then it just proves that all politicians are lying ****s (as if we didn’t know that already)
A leaflet was sent to EVERY house in the U.K. , setting it out clear and in plain English that the government ‘will implement what you decide’.....and now they are doing everything possible NOT to implement what was decided.

For me and many others it will mean that voting is absolutely pointless.
**** it all, I’m finished with it.

I’m sure Juncker and Tusk and the many others who get massive pay and pension pots from the EU will be very pleased while the poor and needy of England, Greece, Spain and elsewhere live from hand to mouth.

 

[bc7]

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[Goldhawk-Road]

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Soubry - Why's there a bare arse hanging out of that skylight?

Umunna - It's Jezza carrying out his threat to **** on us from a great height...

 

[Stroller]

Maybe, but it looks like they’ve deliberately chosen a constituency where the swing from UKIP to the conservatives was much higher than the average (overall 2 to 1 labour, but here 2 to 1 conservatives). They have then used this to extrapolate the result country wide. That may be how it pans out in the future, but it seems to me like a very optimistic forecast to use when gambling with your party’s future(and perhaps existence)

I think the point is that the people who may have switched from Leave to Remain since the referendum (according to polling) are much more likely to be Labour voters than Tory.

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It's only opinion polling I know, but one of those Guardian articles suggests that 112 constituencies may have switched from Leave to Remain since the referendum.

 

[Sooperhoop]

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Soubry - Why's there a bare arse hanging out of that skylight?

Umunna - It's Jezza carrying out his threat to **** on us from a great height...

11 c*nts, just call them Chelsea...

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

11 c*nts, just call them Chelsea...

 

[ELLERS]

I just heard one MP say that rather than the default be 'leave with no deal' it should have said 'remain'... so basically if we couldn't sort out a deal in the 2 years we just stay? ... I am sure the EU would have really sorted a deal out? There really are some stupid people running our country.

ERG are having a meeting at 6PM to decide how to respond to todays statement. That will be interesting.

 

[Goldhawk-Road]

I just heard one MP say that rather than the default be 'leave with no deal' it should have said 'remain'... so basically if we couldn't sort out a deal in the 2 years we just stay? ... I am sure the EU would have really sorted a deal out? There really are some stupid people running our country.

ERG are having a meeting at 6PM to decide how to respond to todays statement. That will be interesting.

Expect a nuclear threat from ERG to May sometime soon - perhaps in mid March once its clear we won't leave on 29th.

May seems to respond to whoever threatens her last - all that pent up anxiety, I bet she gives her husband hell in bed