Since the personal animosity seems to be running a little high, why not try something a little different to take the sting out of our debate? Instead of posting what you
want to happen, shall we each predict what we may think will happen and why? I'll start us off:
Much as I don't want one, I think we will end up having a second 'people's vote', and further, I think leave will go on to win that. At this stage, much harder to call, but I think we would end up with a deal similar to what May has negotiated, with a more UK friendly backstop deal. Here's why:
- May's deal gets voted down after no change is made to the current deal
- I think there is a strong Parliamentary majority against no deal - I can't see how the parliamentary arithmetic allows this to happen
- ...and if it doesn't, with May's deal rejected, the only option left is a Norway or Norway+ type deal. Again, this will please nobody at all as we won't have full membership benefits, but will have most of the responsibilities [rule taker, without a say]
- At this stage, with a majority against no deal, and a small majority for a People's Vote [Lab + SNP + LD + Tory rebels], A50 is extended one year, and legislation forced through for People's Vote
- Campaign and vote - leave win with significantly enhanced majority [who would have thought speeches on European Armies and a tough negotiation over two years would help leave?! ;-)]
- Again, no majority in Parliament for no deal, but very strong mandate for leave
- EU weakened and UK negotiation position strengthened
- May deal with better backstop finally gets through...
Will May still be PM at stage 8? Not willing to guess at that!!
How do others see it going?