The Guineas

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floridaspearl

floridaspearl

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Feb 19, 2013
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cant believe nobody has started this thread, so here I am. In the 2000 tomorrow I’m going with royal marine. He caught the eye running on in the craven. Kierren fallon has been riding him in work over the winter in Dubai and he said he’s the best horse he’s ever sat on. That’s some statement, when he says that I sit up and listen. He also said don’t worry if he doesn’t win first time he will win the guineas. In the 1000 I’m following that old rogue Ellsworth with dandhu . She served up a bit of a shock lto and even I hesitated in backing her.elsworth even admitted he was shocked at her improvement and is not giving much away.
 
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Agree with OddDog for my main contender but think a forgotten horse is Momkin, who has done nothing wrong and wasn't far away in the Craven.
 
No idea but it is so open I'll go
Ten Sovereigns 20 points at 9/2 (Potential return 110)
Skardu 10 points at 8/1 (Potential return 90)
Royal Marine 10 points at 11/1 (Potential return 120)
Al Hilalee 5 points at 16/1 (Potential return 85)

45 points staked
 
floridaspearl said:
cant believe nobody has started this thread, so here I am. In the 2000 tomorrow I’m going with royal marine. He caught the eye running on in the craven. Kierren fallon has been riding him in work over the winter in Dubai and he said he’s the best horse he’s ever sat on. That’s some statement, when he says that I sit up and listen. He also said don’t worry if he doesn’t win first time he will win the guineas. In the 1000 I’m following that old rogue Ellsworth with dandhu . She served up a bit of a shock lto and even I hesitated in backing her.elsworth even admitted he was shocked at her improvement and is not giving much away.
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The ride LTO on Royal Marine was a disgrace; never put in a position in the race, which is a problem because we have no idea on the horse following it's 'too bad to be true' run at Meydan. His odds have also drifted significantly over the past week (9.0 - 16.0), which is alarming.

Could have got interested in Madhmoon at a price, but not from stall one.

If Ten Soveriegns doesn't stay then it's an open, albeit a weak renewal. I'd rather take a chance on Royal Marine @16.0 showing up to be the horse I think he is, than taking a chance that TS stays 1m @4.8.
 
Royal Marine has never done anything to suggest hes anywhere near winning a Guineas, Advertise is a sprinter and it might be a bit of a culture shock for Skardu after only running in a moderately run G3 trial. Great Scot is a live outsider, can see him running well.

I think the right horses are the top 3 in the betting, if Ten Sovereigns stays he wins, same comments would have applied to Calyx who is a class above this field in terms of ability and elite acceleration, a real shame they ran him in an egg and spoon trial instead.

Madhmoon has a better case than most, he was among the top prospects last year and conditions look ideal for him, but he always looked just below the best when compared to Ten Sovereigns, Quorto, Too Darn Hot and Calyx. Given that only Ten Sovereigns made it to the race, he has become one of the main players by default, his comeback run was solid but not spectacular and I think one of the Ballydoyle runners might be too good for him.

Magna Grecia done well to go from a maiden to a G1 win in the space of a month, running the best French colt Persian King close in between. Thats pretty high level form in the context of this race and with proven stamina, the market had him favourite until it was revealed that Moore was riding Ten Sovereigns.

Its a sore head with Ballydoyle in these classics and only they will know the true situation, whatever Moore rode would have been favourite and hes been on the wrong one on many occasions in recent years so its probably best to ignore the recent odds changes. Magna Grecia and Ten Sovereigns have run 6 times between them and Donnacha has been on for 5 of those, he knows the horses better than Moore and Obrien obviously gives his sons a few classics before they retire, could they have nudged Moore in the wrong direction? I think at the odds now and with proven stamina Magna Grecia is the right call, especially if he stays solid in the betting on the day, but im far from confident, I would have been very strong on Calyx and the race is just giving me a sore head now.
 
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I felt that the best trial this year was the Greenham but the winner Mohaather was injured and sank my each-way bet at 25/1.

I thought the Craven was below the usual standard this year and William Haggas has said he feels his winner of that race, Skardu, is poor value for the 2000 Guineas.

I wish I could get a job previewing races for At The Races with their selection of the Fav to beat the 2nd Fav being all too typical. The Timeform guy also tips the O'Brien two in betting order for the race. He puts the Craven winner in for third in a classic painting by numbers preview.

Very little concern is given to Ten Sovereigns getting the extra 2 furlongs but the horse was campaigned as a printer last season and the Middle Park stakes has a poor record from the trends point of view. If he wins, fair play to the master trainer but I see no value.

Magna Grecia has that age old Futurity/Racing Post Trophy, will the winner be fast enough for the Guineas? question to answer. Unexposed but it looked a weak renewal of the trial more associated with the Derby types. Not for me at the odds but in his favour is so many of the stronger looking candidates having met with problems or re-routes.

Royal Marine has not captured my imagination. He pulled too hard in the Craven and ended up boxed in to some extent. If you watch the replay of the Craven Royal Marine and Skardu start the push for home from roughly the same place but the Haggas horse simply picks up to much better effect. Royal Marine was not really making any meaningful headway late on and it is stretching the imagination to mark him as unlucky in any way. The main problem is that the horse didn't settle well enough to be able to finish his race off and I would not back him for the Guineas at any price really.

Skardu picked up quite well to land the Craven but the other Godolphin runner Zakouski was weak in the betting and was reported not to have stayed. With outsiders Momkin and Set Piece finishing 2nd and 3rd, it left a questionable look to the form. They had come in rated 90 and 86 and it seems a bit of a coincidence that both recorded massive personal bests. Momkin went up two stone to 108 but that ambitious new rating still leaves him needing more to win here. I have put a pen right through the Craven and tomorrow will tell if it was a bad move to do so.

Madhmoon was a popular horse to follow for the season but he was initially pushed out after being beaten on his comeback run. Defections have meant he has been popular again but I have a bad feeling about the form of that Guineas trial. I don't think the horse who bested Madhmoon is great and the support for the colt seems to be coming because Broome dotted up in the Ballysax and had run behind Madhmoon last year. They came in like Wells Fargo coaches in that Ballysax and it was like the Somme that day. I'll pass on Madhmoon.

Al Hilalee made a decent start in the UK before going on to win in France. It seemed he was more of a Derby candidate and he was not originally entered here. I am worried that he has been supplemented because the owners feel they have a weak hand. He is well bred and could be anything so I am looking to take an interest in him for the Guineas/Derby double, as I feel that only he and Magna Grecia are realistic contenders and the O'Brien runner has serious stamina questions.

I have gone with Advertise. He needs to prove he stays a mile but he is the second highest rated in the field, just 1 lb behind Ten Seovereigns. He was narrowly second in the Coventry and has a good profile when considering the fact that the only two horses to finish ahead of him have been Calyx and Too Darn Hot. Trainer Martyn Meade is not in the best form yet and can sound the way Clive Brittain did in the glass not always being half full but instead brimming over and pissing across the rim. If he has trained on I think Advertise holds a solid chance and he is my main bet to get back ante-post losses and leave enough over for a bottle of Jack Daniels.

Advertise 10/1 from earlier. Great Scot five places at 16/1 may reward each-way support with doubts on the stamina of some of them.

Skardu and Royal Marine would be lays along with Madhmoon.
 
6 of the last 8 Guineas winners were either by Galileo or out of a Galileo mare, and Dawn Approach was by a son of Galileo who himself was only beaten a nose in this, incredible influence on this race.

From this years renewal, Madhmoon is by the grandson Dawn Approach and Magna Grecia is out of a Galileo mare.
 
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The defection of Too Darn Hot has ensured that it will not be a single figure 2000 Guineas field but there are plenty of negatives and a distinct lack of positives.

The dark horse of the race must be Al Hilalee, added to the race despite Godolphin having a couple of other interests. I suppose the Guineas is viewed as the best Derby trial...

The favourite should be Ten Sovereigns but I would not shovel any number of coins on him as he looked like a sprinter last term when winning the Middle Park but that is the best juvenile form on offer here. Also, the last Middle Park winner to win the Guineas was Rodrigo de Triano under Lester Piggott in 1992.

The principal trials muddied the waters. Skardu won the Craven fair and square on only his second start, with Momkin, Set Piece and Royal Marine behind. Shine So Bright won the Free Handicap ahead of Azano but it is a long time since it produced a Guineas winner (Mystiko, 1991). Kick On won the Feilden Stakes and drops back to a mile.

Great Scot and Urban Icon filled the places in the Greenham but the winner is absent; and they surely only have place prospects.

Over at Leopardstown, Madhmoon advertised his wellbeing without winning, should give a good account for Kevin Prendergast and I would not put anyone off him.

Magna Grecia was second in the Autumn Stakes and won the Futurity but is he good enough to collect this first time up? Little more than a length covered the first four at Doncaster. Another coming here first time up is July Stakes and Phoenix Stakes winner Advertise, who was put in his place in the Dewhurst by Too Darn Hot but does not face that rival this time.

As Frankie won on ADVERTISE twice last term, I am going to chance that Martyn Meade has him fit enough because his two career defeats were to Too Darn Hot and Calyx. I note that I am not the only one leaning this way...
 
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The Racing Post was quite a strange race last year and not surprisingly the form has been all over the shop from it since. Seemed like Circus Maximus and Western Australia kicked off a slow pace and stole multiple lengths from the others who just watched them go and then struggled to reel them in. Magna Grecia had previously beaten those two 3L and 6L over the Guineas C+D on fast ground in a more truly run race, id say he ran to a higher level when beaten by Persian King than he did when winning at Doncaster.
 
The 1000 Guineas has looked wide open all winter with many of the top juvenile races won by sprint-bred types. The main problem with the Ballydoyle contingent is that the fillies generally need a race and the more interesting ones on form are making their seasonal bow. I would definitely have liked Fairyland on her two year old efforts, winning the Lowther and the Cheveley Park. Stablemate Just Wonderful won the Rockfel and was fourth in America, so the trip is not an issue.

It is not impossible that an O’Brien horse will win the Classic, and Joseph’s Fillies’ Mile winner Iridessa comes here race fit having gone down to Lady Kaya at Leopardstown. Hermosa was beaten favourite in the Fillies’ Mile so would have every chance.

Dandhu won the Fred Darling in a blanket finish from Iconic Choice and Star Terms; and that does not look the strongest form. At HQ, the Nell Gwyn went to the once-raced Qabala, ahead of her stablemate Mot Juste (who the trainer warned would need the race) with Angel’s Hideaway behind. Whilst her opponents were creditable two year olds, has Qabala done enough to justify favouritism?

Skitter Scatter was ultra-consistent as a juvenile winning the Debutante and Moyglare but comes here without a prep-race and stepping up a furlong.

My inclination is to take a chance on Fairyland as I think her two year old form is possibly the best on offer; however, I can wait until Sunday and see what she looks like; and I wonder whether the one draw might be a liability unless Frankie wants to go from the front. At the odds, I still have a liking for MOT JUSTE, who I saw win her maiden in a common canter at Beverley last September when I had been told to back her.
 
I'm going for Skitter Scatter, which has been my approach to the Guineas this year. Can't analyse the form because it's all a jumble. My (Bustino's comp) predictions were Calyx and Suphala so that was a dead loss
 
I'm staying with Mot Juste for the 1000G. This is a family that improves with racing. Has to make an improvement on her Nell Gwyn trial but the extra furlong will suit her.

Sadly both Guineas look weak heats. Maybe we'll be lauding a new champion but I don't see it.

Mentioned Momkin earlier and reminded myself of his pedigree. His dam is the daughter of a sister to Invincible Spirit, so traces back to the Prix de Diane winner Rafha (dam of IS and Kodiac). Really good family but asking a lot for a Bated Breath colt to improve further to become a 2000G winner.
 
I have fared better with my ante-post bets in the 1000 Guineas than the 2000 Guineas. Early dart So Perfect is out but I have Just Wonderful at 25/1 and Skitter Scatter is my main bet at 16/1.

I got mixed vibes from Just Wonderful last season. She was woeful at Royal Ascot and was no match for Skitter Scatter in the Moyglare but I was encouraged again with the way she won the Rockfel from Dandhu. Perhaps the trip to the Breeder's Cup may have been one visit too many to the well and I feel she's a boom or bust filly overall. I don't hold much confidence she will have a going day in the Guineas and I see little evidence that the stable are any more bullish than myself.

Skitter Scatter started early in the season and looked a classic bright burner who would probably be forgotten about in the autumn. To her credit, she kept on eking out improvement and won her last three races, including the Moyglare. Probably not the one with the most scope but her form was better than most of those in this Guineas. A big potential negative is going to John Oxx, who used to get good horses but since Sea The Stars days, he has declined badly. He has teamed up with Skitter Scatter's former trainer but the signs point to a big struggle for the stable to hit form. It tempers confidence when a team are not sending out winners but Oxx said early on that Skitter Scatter is easy to get fit and that she would not run before the Guineas, so there is no worry regarding the lack of a race.

Iredessa is a filly I haven't really been impressed by. Beaten by Skitter Scatter before going on to land the Fillies Mile at a surprise 14/1, the form of that Group 1 was not strong looking and has not really worked out. Only 3rd in her return race, where Lady Kaya was a fairly ready winner, I just have a feeling Iredessa has a bit to do with Skitter Scatter on straight up form and through Lady Kaya.

Dandhu was backed for the Guineas before her Fred Darling win but even if Muchly came out and won a class 3 after that, it was a short head and the same that covered the 1-2-3 that day. 3rd home that day was So Perfect, who does not even run and Elsworth has said he feels the ground may be to fast for Dandhu this time. I just can't see it happening for her.

Fairyland was Aidan's most consistent filly last season, with her only defeat in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. She was tough as well, with two narrow but determined wins from The Mackem Bullet bringing her record to 11311 for the year. The Kodiac filly never raced beyond 6F though and it is always a worry in a Guineas. Frankie takes the ride and he has sound chances in both Guineas but I prefer fillies to have run at 7F or a mile by the end of their 2YO season. The Lowther is a bad trend race for the Guineas and that helps to decide against Fairyland.

Qabala came form virtually nowhere to hot favourite in winning the Nell Gwyn. It seemed an open secret that her stablemate Mot Juste was going to need the race that day though and it looked a weak renewal of the trial to my eyes. There were several well exposed sorts in the Fred Darling and the ones to run from it since have stunk the place out. I feel that the form looks decidedly ropey in view of the odds Qabala is sitting at and I feel she is awful value based on the actual form value of just one race. She is priced as if she has a guaranteed form advantage over the rest of the field and it looks debatable. I am not quite convinced by stablemate Mot Juste either but she may be the better value of the Varian runners.

I am staying with Skitter Scatter even if she lacks the scope of some of them. She might not be the one to take through the season but first time up and on ground that is quick she may just get the mile and she was the pick of the 2YO fillies for me when considering the Guineas. She may burn bright for the one day and stay better than some of them, while having more toe than others. I certainly feel she is better value than Qabala at double her odds.

Scatter won today in France, perhaps an omen for Skitter Scatter.

Skitter Scatter for me and Iconic Choice each-way 4 places at 25/1 as the value outsider.
 
I really like Fairyland. I thought she was a little unlucky to be racing in the wrong group in the Albany. She is tough and had she been eyeballing the two in the centre that day I think she would have won. As Grendel rightly says the big question mark is her stamina. If she stays 8f it would take a real good filly to outbattle her in a finish.
 
In the boys race I shall be backing EMARAATY ANA mainly because I really liked him since day one. He was firmly put in his place in the Middle Park but his pedigree screams miler rather than sprinter. I don’t know if the trainer has spoken about him over the winter but he looked a horse who would progress very nicely. He is a huge price today and I won’t mind taking that down a few notches to get extra each way places in a race that has far more questions than answers.
 
stick said:
In the boys race I shall be backing EMARAATY ANA mainly because I really liked him since day one. He was firmly put in his place in the Middle Park but his pedigree screams miler rather than sprinter. I don’t know if the trainer has spoken about him over the winter but he looked a horse who would progress very nicely. He is a huge price today and I won’t mind taking that down a few notches to get extra each way places in a race that has far more questions than answers.
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Stick, you can get 10/1 as a special bet for Emaraaty Ana to finish in the first FIVE. That is with SKYBET.
 
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I'm on Advertise at 10/1 from a couple of weeks ago, think he arguably has the best form and didn't feel in the Dewhurst he was desperate for the line to come so think he'll stay an extra furlong at least.

I'll also be having a go at one to place at decent odds as I always do. You always seem to get a horse placed at big odds in the Guineas (Glory Awaits and Dubawi Gold spring to mind), especially one that has already ran this season which I think sometimes gives them a fitness edge over some other opponents. I thought Azano looked like he would appreciate the extra furlong in the Free Handicap last race and with Skybet paying 5 places I think hes a good shout to get in the top 5 at 12/1.
 
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