Looking almost impossible for Essex and Gloucs to qualify already. And hence seven sides fighting for four places - and one of those sides is Middlesex, who history would suggest probably aren't going to be threat (and just one win after six games would support that).
Difficult to judge Glamorgan. On paper, four wins from seven is solid. But all of those four wins have come against Glous, Essex and Middlesex.
Surrey are disadvantaged in that Essex and Gloucs are the two sides who they only play once (albeit they still have to play those two games). Everyone else in the top seven plays them both twice this campaign.