The last 24 hours couldn't have gone any worse for Essex. They had the wiggle room to lose one game against us and Kent, but to lose both...
They looked set to qualify with at least two games to spare, when their record read 7-2 at the start of the week. Now they're in a neck-and-neck two-from-three battle.
And amazingly, it might yet become a three-from-four battle. Us, Kent and Essex all have very winnable games up next - whereas Surrey play Somerset. It would have been unthinkable at the start of the competition that four teams could go into the final round of matches level on 16 points (just as unthinkable as the prospect of Surrey failing to qualify), but there's a decent chance now that it could happen. And in that last round of matches, Surrey play Essex.