Assuming Essex beat Sussex on Tuesday, it's looking increasingly likely that it'll be Worcs and Lancs that we'll have to jump ahead of to secure 3rd place in the group. That's with Durham and Essex being the top 2, whichever way round. That would take us to beat Durham (not especially likely as they're in good form) and, importantly, Essex to win at Old Trafford.
It would be handy if Durham could beat Worcs, otherwise it would come down to NRR with us against the Pears. Plus Covid can help us out by ensuring that Gloucs don't get the chance to try to sneak in ahead of us, since 8/7 would beat our 9/8.