Looking at the final declarations I must say this does look a strong renewal but also plenty of question marks: Brilliant Greenham winer Kingman might find the going too fast; Will Kingston Hill need further? Was Australia flattered by the margin of victory over Free Eagle and has he trained on? Which is the strongest AOB runner? Which is the strongest Hannon runner? What threat do the French horses pose? And what about the Spanish colt? I'm actually starting to look forward to the race
Kingman justified his status as unbeaten favourite for the first Classic with a facile victory in the Greenham Stakes, albeit against a field of unknown quality as most of them had reputations rather than racecourse form. It is hard to envisage a scenario where runner-up Night Of Thunder will reverse the placings. In the betting, the principal rival is unbeaten Australia, a son of two Classic winners, who thrashed Free Eagle over a mile as a juvenile. Whilst his fitness has to be taken on trust and the stable hype is an annual event, there is every prospect that he will be involved in the finish. The Derby betting could see a serious shake-up if he flops or wins. Champion two year old Toormore has done nothing wrong and was successful on his seasonal bow over course and distance in the Craven Stakes, although that form has probably been unreasonably denigrated; so he should not be written off. No reason that runner-up The Grey Gatsby should reverse the form when worse off at levels. A wide-margin victory in the Racing Post Trophy marked Kingston Hill out as a more likely middle-distance contender than miler; however, he is not totally without a chance with the stiff Rowley Mile finish to bring his stamina to the fore. War Command won the Dewhurst Stakes against a small field and was a surprise six-length winner of the Coventry Stakes at Ascot. His decidedly ordinary third to Sudirman in the Phoenix Stakes has not been explained but he would not be the first O’Brien second-string to win at Newmarket. There is only one piece of form on which to assess Noozhoh Canarias, his second to Karakontie in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardére, and his front-running style may not be advantageous here. Outstrip won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf after a respectable third in the Dewhurst Stakes and victory in the Champagne Stakes. He contested several top quality races as a two year old and is not a forlorn hope if fit enough to do himself justice. Shifting Power needs to find some improvement if his efforts in the Free Handicap are going to prove good enough to get involved here, a comment that is more marked for maiden winner Master The World, who looks to have more than a stone to find on the ratings. Whether Ertijaal can convert his fibresand form to turf or not, it still does not look good enough to challenge here. The victory of Charm Spirit in the Prix Djebel is difficult to assess as the French trials are invariably inconclusive, but his trainer is no mug and he is not just coming for a day out. Behind him that day was twice-raced Bookrunner. Given the draws they have been handed, there does not appear to be much prospect of the two market leaders eyeballing each other until quite late in the race...
Just goes to show that I should not write these things from memory as it plays tricks on me. I must look up a few of the fillies before I comment on the 1000 Guineas. I was there that day but I only got one decent shot of him winning the race as some guy standing about five yards down the rail from me insisted on waving his racecard at the horse and I got about four or five shots of that!
I've only been to one 2000Gns. I took my son for his birthday. Unfortunately he was sick so I took him home. Didn't see the 2000Gns and I can't even remember which one it was. That really bugs me.
Australia dazzles aidan in last piece of work on Tuesday said even gorgeous george didn't work like that ! Get on !!
Well we will see he won't be beaten tomorrow . Best piece of work before a guineas is too take note on but all the AOB haters will always say that
What happens on the racecourse is what matters. I remember Olly Stevens stating that they have a horse who works like a Group class sprinter, but then when he goes racing he isn't very good. Burning Blaze I believe he is called. I hope Australia is something really special, my fondness for the dam (the great one) makes him one that I really want to do exceptional things. He might need to do just that with Kingman in opposition.
Does anyone know what happened to Renaissance Art, the one that just held off Australia on their débuts?
Agreed. Tomorrow could be the confirmed arrival of a new star. If Australia is finishing well, win or lose, it will be the one to beat in the Derby I guess.
I was lucky enough to be at the 2000 Guineas 3 years ago when i saw Frankel demolish the opposition. I am lucky enough now to be going tomorrow and hoping to see another dazzling performance from the horse in those colours - Kingman. I fully expect him to win and to win well
I do as well Brough but have a niggling doubt about the ground and Australia (Just need to tell myself it's all hype)
Whilst I am a Kingman fan I am not going to back him as I feel his price is now too short on account of the fact that the piece of form that shortened the price is the Greenham, which actually is a very poor race for producing 2000G winners on account of it being over only 7f. If we take out Frankel as we know he had so much in hand over the competition, the last winner of the Greenham to win the Guineas was a horse called Wallow in 1976 (Ridden incidently by Frankies Dad) . I feel that distance is so important in evaluating form and any horse that is favourite for a race he has never run over should be approached with caution. If I had a horse that was being aimed at the 2000 Guineas, were I looking for a prep run I would only look for a mile race. They will likely go hard tomorrow and he will have horses that will definitely stay and he could be vulnerable. If indeed Kingman does win however after showing such speed over 7f he could end up being exceptional, as to do so will show a great deal of ability.
I'm inclining to agree Blue. Kingman is supposedly the next wonder horse, Australia is another best ever of AOB but Toormore has won over a mile and was the top rated 2yo. It's not often one can get 8/1 for a champion 2yo with trip guaranteed. So I'm going against the 2 hotpots with Toormore and War Command
