Australia is by Galileo out of Ouija Board though Bluesky - if you put any value on breeding he ought to be tailor made for the Derby and therefore ran a cracker to finish a close third over a mile today Historically the 2000GNS has proven to be an excellent Derby trial - both for horses who won the Guineas and those who were placed
The winners pedigree isn't light on stamina either gents. Dubawi son out of a Galileo mare. You would expect him to improve for another step up in trip. At 20-1 I shall have a little reinvestment out of todays profit! Am I right in saying he would have to be supplemented?
I do agree with you on the breeding Oddie, my point is that it takes an exceptional horse to prove himself at the very top of his generation over a mile and over a mile and a half. There would be very few horses that trainers would even consider running within a range of four furlongs because it is not logical that a horse could be expected to be effective to a high standard over such a range, not impossible but not common. This is why I cannot understand a mile race being described as a good trial for a Derby, no one would consider calling a 6 furlong race a trial for the Guineas. I just took a quick look at previous Derby's and at a glance over the last 40 years I can see 3 winners and two fall into that exceptional standard in Nashwan and See The Stars whilst Camalot also won both. I compared it to a few of the other races commonly banded about as Derby Trials and it had less winners than The Dante, The Derrrinstown, The Chester Vase, The Lingfield Derby Trial and even The Sandown Classic Trial. I guess it could be of use on account of the fact that because of the prestige trainers will have a crack with an unsuited horse, and so if watching out for a horse who fails in the guineas due to a lack of speed over a mile, and so looks as if he will come on stepped up in distance it could be of use as a piece of form, but that does not really allow it the term of best Derby Trial if it's looking out for a losing horse who was staying on. Interestingly the worst Derby Trial is the Epsom Derby Trial, I could not see one Derby winner listed.
Interestingly the worst Derby Trail I could see was the Epsom Derby Trail, I could not see one winner go on to take the Derby.
Don't get me started on the Epsom Derby Trial mate - how many times have you heard "he didn't handle the track" after you've lost your hard-earned on a Derby horse. Get him entered in the ****ing trial race then you moron !!! I think placed horses in the 2000 GNS have a decent record in the Derby - I certainly remember Generous finishing about 4th at newmarket before running away with the Derby (or am i showing my age now? )
Well done! How much did you have on him? SP was 40/1, wasn't such a big shock he won, unbeaten in two runs as a juvenile, 2nd to the favourite for 2,000 Guineas in the Greenham, 40/1 was far too big!
Well f**kadoodledo. Well done stick. It wasn't bollocks at all was it, having looked at his form and pedigree, and having heard Fallon's comment after the race (referring to his defeat by Kingman). It was an immediate reaction to what seemed an anti climax, having looked forward to something winning impressively (preferably Kingman or Toormore). Very disappointed with Toormore. Despite the ground being faster today the time was over 1 second slower than Toormore's win over C&D in the Craven.
Generous - now there was a good horse Oddie. I sometimes feel he was not awarded the recognition he deserved, on the other hand I understand it as he did need an extra bit of form or two to be ranked up there with the best. Visually though he was very impressive.
Kingman’s Guineas price was the result of the ante post market, just as it was for Australia. On form, this was a much more open Guineas than the betting suggested. I did have concerns about the extra furlong for Kingman but I do not think that is why he was beaten; although both sides of his pedigree (his dam being a sister to Oasis Dream and the sire a sprinter) were grounds for worrying. Australia was a paltry 5/2 for the Derby on Saturday morning. Losing the Guineas by half a length and a head reduced that to a best priced 7/4 and as low as Evens with a couple of firms. I think the Guineas is always viewed as the best trial because several of the Derby trials tend to attract horses with reputations rather than actual top class form. The obvious problem, as you have stated, is that most of the field will turn out to be milers or sprinters and there is an extra half mile to go at Epsom.
I expect that discussion about this year’s 2000 Guineas is going to continue for some time, with Richard Hannon’s 40/1 Night Of Thunder turning the Greenham form around by five lengths with favourite Kingman. I am probably going to be really unpopular with Mr Gosden as my ante-post money weighed his charge down and I also fancied Cloudscape in the Newmarket Stakes that was won by Lady Rothschild’s other runner Barley Mow, trained by Richard Hannon. I was at Newmarket and had positioned myself at the side of the Members’ Stand looking down the track, expecting that this might be another Guineas like when Frankel won with the rest of the field only required for background. As the runners had gone to post there was the tall gent standing near me who looked just like John Gosden. There was a good reason for that. When he stood the other side of me, I noticed that he was being shadowed by a TV cameraman. I asked him whether he was bothered by the fast ground. He confessed that he had hoped for some rain during the week but nobody can control the weather. I suggested that there appeared to be a good covering of grass and that would cushion the ground. He acknowledged that our mild winter meant that the grass was in good condition. I have to tell you that what Mr Gosden said next turned out to be highly prophetic. He indicated that he was a little bit concerned about the draw that Kingman had if the field split. Myself, I could not see why a fourteen runner field would split and I was expecting them to group in the middle behind one or more possible front runners, such as the Spanish raider. For what it is worth, Mr Gosden did not have a jig planned for the winner’s enclosure if he had been successful. As the runners did split into two groups and I could not tell from looking straight down the track which had the lead, I looked at the two large screens to try and gauge which group to point my camera towards. The TV people focussed on Kingman’s group close home and I did the same, so I got a load of pictures of the runner-up not winning. If the two meet at The Curragh, I think there is every prospect that Kingman will reverse the placings. As it is not a straight mile over in Ireland, they will not split into two groups there! Plus I think there is much more chance of getting good ground there and the ground seems the most likely explanation for the sudden improvement in Night Of Thunder, although I will not denigrate his victory at Newmarket as he was the best horse on the day as the race panned out.
I used to go to the Epsom Derby most years and have backed a few winners in my time. My biggest bet was Grundy who had finished a fast finishing second in the 2000Gns, and was Timeform top rated with a very positive comment. Given the fav was almost certain not to stay 5/1 was an outstanding bet. So, any horse bred for 12f that runs in the 2000Gns and runs on well is always one I'd be interested in for the Derby. It's the reason I had faith in that lovely horse SNA. Personally, I think the winner, Night Of Thunder, has the best Derby pedigree of those that ran in this year's 2000Gns and must have an excellent chance of winning the Epsom Derby. Sire: Dubawi (Derby 3rd) by Dubai Millennium out of Zomaradah who was by Deploy out of Jawaher. Deploy was by Derby winner Shirley Heights out of Oaks second (to Time Charter) Slightly Dangerous by Derby winner Roberto. And of course Shirley Heights was by the Derby and Arc winner Mill Reef. Jawaher was by Derby "winner" and Arc winner Dancing Brave. Dam: Forest Storm was by Galileo (Derby winner) out of Quiet Storm by Desert Prince. Desert Prince was by Green Desert (2nd to Dancing Brave in 2000Gns) out of Flying Fairy. Green Desert was by Danzig out of Foreign Courier who was by Derby winner Sir Ivor out of a mare by Mill Reef's sire, Never Bend. Flying Fairy was by Bustino out of 1000Gns winner Fairy Footsteps who was by Derby and Arc winner Mill Reef. Quiet Storm was out of Hertford Castle, by Derby winner Reference Point who was by Mill Reef out of Home on the Range by Habitat out of a Busted mare. Hertford Castle was out of Forest Flower who was by champion French 2yo and 3yo Green Forest out a mare by Triple Crown winner Nijiinsky Absolutely littered with class. I hope I've got that right.
Its a really classy pedigree on paper. Forest Flower was a great filly on the track http://www.pedigreequery.com/night of thunder2
Jan,was she a little chestnut miler in the late Paul Mellon colours trained by Ian Balding?...could be well wrong...I think she won a Guineas...the French maybe?..I was only about 11 then!
Impressive research Ron. I think the turn of foot he showed leads me to believe he will stay at a mile until York perhaps...most Hannon horses get a nose bleed after 8f! I reallyl think the pedigree of Australia screams Derby winner..he's the one I would take home re going forward...so many options.
Agree with a lot of that. I stated yesterday that the draw shouldn't have been a problem in a 14 runner race with the stalls central. Re the ground,it was gd/fm gd in places with a great grass cover and if a top class flat horse can't go on that,well,then he isn't. I would expect the winner to extend his advantage over the second next time out...absolutely no reason not to on a stiff Curragh mile with Kingmans achilles heel already exposed..it will ne further exposed with a legion of Coolmore rabbits. The fact that that the first three finished in a heap,without genuine excuses,leads me to believe that the potential horse,Australia is the moral winner.He raced alone without company,cover or a target for much of the event. In fact,given the improvement he will attain,I would take Australia to beat the first two over a mile again even though that scenario will not manifest. He's the best AO'B has ever trained after all...
Surely the Irish 2000 was his Classic win?...he may have a G1 there as a 2-y-o as well or maybe the Beresford which is a G2..don't remember..
Dubawi's group one wins were the National Stakes, the Irish 2000 guineas and the Jacques Le Marois. The more I analyse yesterdays result the more I think there were three very good horses but not one exceptional one. With this rationale I am now sorely tempted to have a punt on TRUE STORY for the Derby. Absolutely no doubt about him seeing out the trip.
