Most of the punters will have had no trouble carrying their wallets and purses home by the end of the first day of the Guineas Festival. The Sunday is again dominated by short-priced favourites.
The fairer sex have centre stage for Sunday’s action, starting with the Dahlia Stakes at 2:25. No surprise that having been touched off in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera on Arc day last year that Jazzi Top is a short priced favourite for victory on the card where she began her three-year-old campaign collecting the Pretty Polly. Several of the others are of interest and it does look like the older fillies and mares could be a very competitive division this term, so I will not be getting back by Longchamp losses yet (unless she gets to 2/1 or better). Fascinating that Fabre has sent Godolphin’s filly Usherette over even though she won on the Chantilly polytrack last time and a Deauville conditions race before that – she was nowhere in Amazing Maria’s Prix Rothschild.
After the defeat of the O’Brien hotpot in the 2000 Guineas, will the bookies be looking to take on Minding in the 1000? I still think that she is the one to beat as her Fillies Mile win clearly marked her as one of the best two-year-old fillies and that course and distance win mean no stamina issues. Mark Johnston’s grey Lumiere has to step up in trip but the yard has been exuding confidence and she ought to prove the biggest threat to the favourite other than stablemate Ballydoyle. Although Nathra strips race fit, it is hard to see her reversing form with the favourite and missing her intended return is a concern regarding Illuminate. If there is going to be a long-priced upset, Criquette Head-Maarek’s Midweek is not here just for a change of scenery.
The aforementioned Pretty Polly Stakes looks like a terrific heat with at least four or five fillies that could turn out to be worth following during the season if they show some promise here. As First Victory disappointed when handicapped by my money, she will probably pop up here at decent odds now that I desert her. Even Song has done nothing wrong, not surprisingly is impeccably bred and looks an obvious danger. Tiptree took advantage of her experience to defeat Swiss Range last year but John Gosden’s filly now has fitness on her side and went in the notebook with her easy HQ victory. Whether I shovel any dosh on Khalid Abdullah’s filly may simply come down to how generous the bookies are feeling by ten to five, as the current 2/1 is a little skinny.
