Sectionals - Humour Me

[OddDog]

So here's me humouring you:

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[Ron]

Nass, are you reviewing the results to see if there's potential for refinement? Eg if you retrospectively applied the sectional up/downgrades for previous races and then for the one in which it just ran, might it be possible to find some pattern that could help in eliminating some of those that come up in future?

 

[NassauBoard]

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
TOTAL -78.80


Today is the day. Or something like that!!


15:30 Ayr Samra Star Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:05 Ayr Sophiesticate Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:15 Warwick In This World Summer Jumps = Sectionals
16:25 Chepstow Blue Point Express Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
16:42 Ayr Carlton And Co Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:00 Chepstow Soi Dao Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:00 Chepstow Power Of Gold Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:17 Ayr Jewel Maker Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:35 Chepstow Diamond Cottage Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
18:40 Kempton A Major Payne Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
18:50 Gowran Park Daymer Bay Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
19:30 Brighton We'renotreallyhere Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
20:10 Kempton Liosa Sectionals - Will they lead and get easy lead?
20:30 Brighton Tronido Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
20:40 Kempton One Million Dreams All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
20:40 Kempton Autumn's Breeze Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
20:40 Kempton Cornish Storm All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
20:40 Kempton Cloudside Rock All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG


39 staked

 

[NassauBoard]

Nass, are you reviewing the results to see if there's potential for refinement? Eg if you retrospectively applied the sectional up/downgrades for previous races and then for the one in which it just ran, might it be possible to find some pattern that could help in eliminating some of those that come up in future?

Exactly the plan @Ron

 

[NassauBoard]

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
2025-05-21 -14.42
TOTAL -93.22

Two winners, but unfortunately one was a dead heat. Plenty of the big prices ran well again.


14:25 Yarmouth Desejada Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
14:55 Yarmouth Queen's Company Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:47 Haydock Duran Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
16:25 Yarmouth Chola Empire Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:00 Yarmouth Hinitsa Bay Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
17:15 Chelmsford City Saligo Bay All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
19:50 Chelmsford City Buraback Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
19:50 Chelmsford City Agostino All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
20:20 Chelmsford City Combustion Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
20:20 Chelmsford City Yoshimi All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG

 

[Benvenuto Cellini]

longest stride last furlong is pretty meaningless

you can see from the graphs, while the stride length does tail off a bit, its the cadence (sps) that drops significantly when theyre tired, the stride length is more steady, they just cant turn their stride over at the same rate

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a horse with a long stride could be finishing tired and still have a longer stride than a horse finishing strong in the last furlong

a better thing to check for would be (peak stride length - final furlong stride length), to measure the drop from the maximum, with the lowest being the best score for the race

and also same for sps (peak sps - final furlong sps), lowest scores for these would better tell you who was finishing strongest

 

[NassauBoard]

Just to state, I know someone who I have ignored has commented. I won't be checking what was stated. My use of this site is on the understanding that I can't be bothered arguing etc with folk, so whoever it is, that is why. Thanks.

 

[OddDog]

It was quite interesting actually - the relative importance of stride length v cadence. I liked it.

 

[stick]

I didnt say anything

 

[TIGERSCAVE]

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
2025-05-21 -14.42
TOTAL -93.22

Two winners, but unfortunately one was a dead heat. Plenty of the big prices ran well again.


14:25 Yarmouth Desejada Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
14:55 Yarmouth Queen's Company Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:47 Haydock Duran Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
16:25 Yarmouth Chola Empire Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:00 Yarmouth Hinitsa Bay Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
17:15 Chelmsford City Saligo Bay All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
19:50 Chelmsford City Buraback Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
19:50 Chelmsford City Agostino All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
20:20 Chelmsford City Combustion Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
20:20 Chelmsford City Yoshimi All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG

A good day for you today Nassau...

 

[NassauBoard]

Yep, can't grumble at the luck for the 22nd. 4 winners at BSP's of -

20.47
6.38
10.19
4.12

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
2025-05-21 -14.42
2025-05-22 63.51
TOTAL -29.7

Time Course Horse System Name
13:50 Haydock Prince Achille Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
14:40 Goodwood King's Reign Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
14:40 Goodwood Wonder Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
14:40 Goodwood Trooper Bisdee Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
14:50 Bath Alshimali Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:25 Goodwood Great Acclaim Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:25 Goodwood Dream Of Mischief Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:57 Worcester I'm A Starman Summer Jumps = Sectionals
19:25 Curragh Daamberdiplomat Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO

 

[NassauBoard]

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
2025-05-21 -14.42
2025-05-22 63.51
2025-05-23 8.42
TOTAL -21.29

Another day of profit, thanks to the summer jumper.


13:15 Haydock Thunder Roar Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
13:15 Haydock Local Hero Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
13:15 Haydock Dashing Darcey Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
13:50 Haydock City Of God Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
14:50 Catterick Lillistar Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
15:55 Beverley Billyb Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:10 Haydock Easy Peeler Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
16:25 Beverley This Years Love Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:55 Goodwood Walnut Sectionals - Will they lead and get easy lead?
17:20 Salisbury Chourmo Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:25 Curragh Far From Dandy Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
19:35 Windsor Raffles Angel Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
19:35 Windsor Noel Fox Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
19:50 Salisbury Arizona Rock Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
20:20 Salisbury Tryfan Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO

 

[NassauBoard]

Two non runners in that lot. So £26 staked today.

 

[NassauBoard]

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
2025-05-21 -14.42
2025-05-22 63.51
2025-05-23 8.42
2025-05-24 -18.56
TOTAL -39.85

Just the one winner, with Tryfan winning at 3.55 BSP. Disappointing.

A day of reflection coming up. But todays bets first


14:03 Uttoxeter Pooley's Promise Summer Jumps = Sectionals
14:38 Uttoxeter Marlacoo Summer Jumps = Sectionals
14:38 Uttoxeter Miss Maverick Summer Jumps = Sectionals
14:58 Fontwell Sam's Amour Summer Jumps = Sectionals
15:13 Uttoxeter Crystal Spring Summer Jumps = Sectionals

25 staked on summer jumpers.

 

[OddDog]

How long for it to become statistically relevant Nass? I'd give it at least 30 days. Also I think you picked probably the hardest part of the year to start this, with the ground changing, many horses on their first run of the season etc. Do you think it would be more successful in July/ August where there are maybe fewer variables?

 

[NassauBoard]

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This shows that the system that is causing the overall loss is the Turf Sectionals. This system is ticking over at 7% strike rate as is usual, but is giving many fewer winners than market expectations, meaning that where in previous years its been showing a healthy profit, it is now showing a not so healthy loss. The system is the one with the most bets by far, with 97 bets staked and 190 points staked with 149.63 returns.

It feels pertinent to start thinking about dropping the system in stake or completely, but we have only done a small segment of testing, and near misses still suggest that it can bring out good priced horses. The key here is the strike rate is low, so seeing a major change from the previous trend is hard to judge in fewer than 100 bets.

 

[NassauBoard]

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
2025-05-21 -14.42
2025-05-22 63.51
2025-05-23 8.42
2025-05-24 -18.56
2025-05-25 -1.54
TOTAL -41.39

One winner, but a small loss for the day. Can Bank Holiday make the bank, or break the bank?

14:01 Huntingdon Flemen's Tipple Summer Jumps = Sectionals
14:10 Windsor Snuggle Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
14:50 Redcar Desert Raider Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:11 Huntingdon Pottersmattyeeehaa Summer Jumps = Sectionals
15:25 Redcar Safanah Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:40 Leicester Sea Regal Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:40 Leicester Pasha Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:55 Windsor Sean Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:55 Windsor Socialite Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:30 Windsor Miletus Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:35 Redcar Penzance Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:50 Leicester Dutch Decoy Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:05 Windsor Cabeza De Llave Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
17:10 Redcar Cash In Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:40 Windsor The Hrse Horse Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
17:45 Redcar Curious Mrs Fox Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO


38 staked

 

[OddDog]

Probably the most exciting aspect of a dreary bank holiday set of cards

 

[NassauBoard]

Disappointing day, but close to making a decent return. The Hrse Horse hit 1.3 in the run!!

Daily Profit/Loss Summary:
Date Total Profit/Loss (£)
2025-05-10 15.05
2025-05-11 4.99
2025-05-12 -16.00
2025-05-13 7.25
2025-05-14 -20.00
2025-05-15 -9.19
2025-05-16 -46.00
2025-05-17 20.80
2025-05-18 -15.34
2025-05-19 -12.36
2025-05-20 -8.00
2025-05-21 -14.42
2025-05-22 63.51
2025-05-23 8.42
2025-05-24 -18.56
2025-05-25 -1.54
2025-05-26 -24.52
TOTAL -65.91


15:30 Leicester Desert Beauty Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
15:30 Leicester Freedom Bay Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
15:40 Brighton Imperial Cult Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:40 Brighton Dubawi Time Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
15:50 Redcar Naturalia Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:20 Redcar Ratafia Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
16:35 Leicester Pivotal Affair Sectional - Longest Stride last furlong but didn't win
17:10 Leicester Hawk Jet Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:10 Leicester Devasboy Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:15 Brighton Arlecchino's Gift Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
17:25 Redcar Evoluir Turf - Sectionals - Upgrade LTO
19:42 Wolverhampton Dopamine All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
19:42 Wolverhampton Eden Storm All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG
20:42 Wolverhampton Sid's Annie All Weather - Sectional Upgrade - NOHG

 

[OddDog]

Just out of interest Nass - is your system able to say anything about the Derby field already?