Scotch Independence - the countdown

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Should Scotland be an Independent Country?

  • Yes

  • No

Results are only viewable after voting.
Rupert The Gayer said:
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It's in the public accounts. It was tax payers money (paragraphs 4 and 5).

Are you honestly that naive that you think they wouldn't have published it if it had been good news for the No campaign?
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You can still get 5/2 against a yes vote. Presumably you'll be lumping on at that price, given that the yes vote is now "surging ahead"?
 
100% of the polls show that the No campaign is ahead, apart from this mysterious one that has disappeared without a trace.

Now anyone with a modicum of common sense knows that polls can often fluctuate wildly.... as this mysterious Area 51 poll exemplifies.
 
That in itself isn't a good enough reason to vote Yes though.

The big danger is that ST and his treeshagging socialist crew get in and ruin the nations economy with fanciful left-wing policies akin to Chairman Mao's Great Leap Forward that killed 30m Chinese.
 
A free marketplace of gamblers, with over £300k exchanged, has it as 28% percentage chance of Yes, 72% of No. http://sports.betfair.com/?tmi=27033458&ex=1&ti=2378961 (you can find percentage by dividing 1 by the decimal price, so (1 / 3.55) yes = 28% chance of happening).

Although the price of Yes has been coming in for some time.

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Boris Fenster said:
scotland will bottle it and vote no

hope im wrong, and maybe we have just enough mad ****s to vote yes but the majority of sensible ****s will not want to risk change

I want yes just because it would be a massive event and a right old girfuy to the english, i would watch the news that night for sure if they vote yes

english beel would be off the radar
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We really don't give a **** :(
 
BBC Radio 1 are in Glasgow at the moment promoting the Big Weekend thing up there.

Why are the BBC wasting money on a soon to be independant country? I'm not happy knowing that my TV licence is getting wasted north of the border.
 
Boris Fenster said:
mick why dont you start praying to the market? its some sort of mathematical deity in your eyes and what it says goes

90% of the market is mug guessing money
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Over a big enough sample and with enough liquidity the market is right (on average). For every below average punter there should be an above average punter fixing the probabilities (and the above average punter tends to bet big, creating a big jolt to fixing flaws in the pricing when they arise).
 
MalteseMick said:
Over a big enough sample and with enough liquidity the market is right (on average). For every below average punter there should be an above average punter fixing the probabilities (and the above average punter tends to bet big, creating a big jolt to fixing flaws in the pricing when they arise).
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Certainly works for shares: if 51% think it's going up then there are more buyers than sellers so it goes up.

Not sure it applies in the scotch indy market as many of the punters won't be scotch. If you could get the figures just for scotch punters that would be useful.
 
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