Is Scottish referendum a canary in the coal mine?
By
Andrew Wilson 15 Sep, 2014 at 14:20
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The nation state is under pressure as an entity.
Is it still fit for purpose in a technology-driven globalised world, and do official borders on a map mean that much? The bulk of human existence has instead been based around tribal-type organisational structures, and one can see a reversion to that model today in the Middle East, or rather the reality that in many places it was never left that far behind.
Civilizations have tended to collapse when the marginal pay-off no longer rewards their level of complexity and continued investment (taxes), and hence people decline to give ongoing support to the structure. This has been well documented over the years, for example by Joseph Tainter in 'The Collapse of Complex Societies'.
The current political model in the developed world shows early signs of such vulnerability, as seen in the various independence campaigns highlighting more local aims, even just in Europe, and topically, in Scotland. The large nation state has had a good run, for some 400 years, but perhaps more decentralised systems with greater economic freedom (even City states?) might come in to vogue again.
One perspective is that most social democracies are already technically insolvent, no longer fit for purpose, and ultimately poor value for tax payer money. The Chinese Dynasties were known for running into financial difficulties, each after a hundred years or so, and perhaps this is just an inevitability of human nature and governance, and that stimulates renewal. Today's issues range from Welfare systems that are unable to endure in anything like their current form, to increasing regulation and inefficiencies that are the very last things that any country in the "global race" needs, or that anyone would themselves vote for.
The irony for the Scots is that they are not choosing whether to go it alone when they lead the world in education, engineering, finance and philosophy, as they did 150 years ago; or even when they have uncovered a bountiful, rather than depleted, energy inheritance. Nevertheless, a substantial 'Yes' vote, even if not a majority, would evidence a desire for structural political change, perhaps more broadly held, that could be a canary in the coalmine, and to eventually prove irresistible in other countries. Investors, as much as politicians, will need to adapt to this potential reality.