Daily Racing Thread Saturday 3rd. August 2019

Saturday's Meetings

Chelmsford
A/W 8 Races 1:40-5:40p.m.
Thirsk
Flat 7 Races 1:45-5:10p.m.
Glorious Goodwood
Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:25p.m.
Galway Festival
Mixed 8 Races 2:00-5:55p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 2:05-5:35p.m.
Doncaster
Flat 7 Races 2:20-5:45p.m.
Lingfield(E)
Flat 7 Races 4:55-8:05p.m.
Hamilton(E)
Flat 7 Races 5:50-8:50p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Double for me tomorrow at Goodwood, South Sea Pearl (5-1) and Land of Legends (4-1)

 

I see Squire is giving weight all round again. Goes back up in distance tomorrow and is a course winner. 14/1

Jane Elliot (3lb claimer) rides again but considering she rode him at 7.13 that seems a lot of dead weight (3lb off 2 stone). Seems hard to believe he is now an 8yo. Time flies

 

It’s not easy for a horse to make my tracker, but BERKSHIRE ROCCO (Goodwood 4.15pm) went straight into my notebook.

The Racing Post verdict of this Sir Percy colt’s debut run at Ascot was: ‘Dwelt, well in rear, pushed along before halfway, wandered under pressure 2f out, started to pick up over 1f out, ran on final furlong, nearly snatched 3rd’

I think this an over-generous assessment for the jockey (SDS), who twice found trouble at critical times. All momentum lost on a debutant horse. - twice. Game over.

Berkshire Rocco, who had settled well and was clearly ready to race, ran on eye-catchingly with minimal urgings from the jockey with the race long gone, Opened up at 9s and was 7/s/8s until about 10 minutes before the off, when a serious plunge shortened it up to 11/4 - a serious chunk of change needed to shift the odds so dramatically, so close to the off on a Saturday race. Clearly better expected.

The negative is that SDS has chosen the Johnson runner, so presumably better is expected this time than his 2.5l 3rd - a race that hasn’t yet thrown up a NTO winner, albeit the winner itself hasn’t ran since.

King of Athens also clearly needs respecting, stepping up in trip and back in far calmer waters.

Its a fascinating race as these two-year-olds will be open to any amount of improvement. Hopefully we'll see something that can perhaps inspire us for next year, after the bitter disappointment of this year's 3-year-old crop.

Berkshire Rocco 6/1

And as it’s my debut post, I’ll take on the tricast :

Berkshire Rocco
Gold Souk
King of Athens

N.B. Good luck to backers who got on South Sea Pearl earlier in the week at double figures.

 

Welcome to the forum In-Play

 

Amazingly Buzz also runs today and is also giving weight all round - 11/1 best price at present. We know he acts on switchback courses and ran on well last time out. Maybe an ew bet

 

3.40 Goodwood- Khaadem 8/1

A lightly raced 3 year old who has been pitched in at the highest level this year and only ever over 6f Only raced 3 times as a 2yo one of those times including his first ever a race when he was a 11l 3rd behind Calyx but won his final 2 starts last year. Won his first start of the year pretty comfortablyin listed company at Newbury. Before being found out behind Advertise at Royal Ascot. But was a lot better on his last start in a Group 3 at Newbury. Has now dropped down in handicap company for the first time off a mark of 107 (very generous imo) which is the joint top rated (with his stable mate)in the field but also more importantly he is getting weight from some of the field and the stable has the top weight (probably to keep his weight down) as my pick definitely looks like the first string. Stable won with this in 2015 with Magical Memory who had a very similar profile of a progressive 3yo. He has the class edge over the field which is something I like too (similar to Gifted Master last year) where as a lot of the field are just the usual exposed handicappers and 3yo had a good record in recent years in this race. The pace looks to be on his side of the draw and won’t mind the ground either. I am in the hope that he is the famous cliche of a ‘Group horse in a Handicap ‘ and altho his is fav he is a very strong favourite! And altho the lack of a big field is against him he won’t see many horses and not get held up in traffic problems as I can see him tracking the pace being right up there with only a a couple of horses ahead of him, still travelling over 2f then pick it up inside the furlong pole and Kick on and just leave them for dust So no need for the 6 places, just the win will do for me!!

 

Well Wooly, you'll be glad to hear I've gone for Gunmetal

 

On reflection, I think he (Gunmetal) should have been my ew nap but I'm not changing now

 

How many winners will Danny Tudhope have at Thirsk today? I reckon 3 or 4, I just need to find the right ones.
The football is back at last! Coupon on.
EW Patent in the big field handicaps at Goodwood.
1.50 Tinto
2.25 Proschema
3.40 Arecibo
Good luck to all South Sea Pearl backers. I got on at 12’s. Hope Ryan Moore is better today than usual. Cus, he is riding more like Demi Moore in my view! (Now there’s a thought). Have a good weekend fellas

 

Danny T staying up North
Have a look and tell me he cant win all his races !!!!
One can wish
Small acca on all his rides and a lucky on the short priced one
Stay Frosty
Be lucky
Xx

 

You beat me to it Karlos....but it's worth a look

 

Two for me today.id love to see Richard Hughes have a winner today after the heart break of losing one of his horses the other day.no one rode Goodwood as well as Richard and his puds is we’ll fancied in the first.the old school seem to be in the winners what with stoute in the winners and Paul Cole the other day. To my mind baron bolt could have Cole back in the winners today in the big race.
Cheers.

 

Galway

17,20 Camlann 16/1 e/w

Second in this race last year.

 

Just what you need on a Saturday – two huge cavalry charges at the feature meeting...

Being a form pundit, I am leaving the tip horse South Sea Pearl alone as it will not be winning unless it finds a stone of improvement and Ryan Moore could not give Hayley Turner a decent ride at the moment – she would come first if he tried! Enbihaar and Dramatic Queen are the best fillies in the race in terms of recent form and there must be a doubt about Manuela De Vega really being as good as her 108 rating from the Oaks.

The second race at Goodwood is much more my type of thing: decent size field, half easily discounted on recent form and Mark Johnston with two live chances! Frankie gets the ride on Charles Kingsley presumably because of the ownership or because Joe Fanning had the choice (having ridden both to win last time) and went with KING’S ADVICE, whose only defeat in nine races was on the sand in the Pitmen’s Derby. Curious that a Frankel horse out of champion two year old filly Queen’s Logic would excel over 12/14 furlongs.

I am not a fan of the make up of the card at HQ today; and the small fields except for the £25k nursery suggest that trainers are equally unenthusiastic.

With all the rain ‘ere up norf during the week, the Doncaster card is a no bet, especially since the one I had picked out in the entries, Baasem in the first race, is a short-priced favourite with no soft ground form.

 

Moeen Ali b. Lyon 0 (5 balls)

Moeen had better get a 5-fer in the Aussie second innings or he should immediately be dropped from the Test team. He has been a free wicket for ages as a batsmen and his bowling usually goes around the park whether he gets wickets or not. Bring in Rashid if they need a spin bowler or another batsman and let Root bowl a few if they do not need a specialist.

Bairstow c. Warner b. Siddle 8 (35 balls)

Bairstow needs to stop playing like this is a One Day International. Too many of these players that were in the World Cup are stuck in that mind set and need to get back to building a Test match innings.

 

hi fellas!

mr everesst and estelle ma belle are very much considered for various reasons,but ive got the feeling,that BOTANI could well be the one today.her bumper win a few months ago,where she won with 23 lengths,is beginning to look much better now,so she should be dangerous on hurdle debut today.

 

In the 4.15 at Goodwood the Aidan O'Brien horse has plenty in hand on the Racing Post Ratings for the race. King Of Athens has a RPR of 91 and the nearest to that figure is Ralph Beckett's Great Ambassador, who has a rating of 80. Of course these are young horses open to improvement but when considering which one has the most potential you need to also weigh up how much they would need find to be a typical winner of the race on ratings.

Recent winner Duke Of Hazzard won this race last year but he was atypical as a winner in the last decade because he had already run four times and generally more lightly raced, or debuting horses have won. Duke Of Hazard won with a RPR of 86 but had come in with an official rating of 95, so, in retrospect, he was probably a good bet.

The trouble with King Of Athens is that his 91 figure came when he was 13th in the Coventry and on his previous start, when 2nd, he was eight lengths adrift of winner Arizona. It is probably the reason that the O'Brien colt has drifted this morning in the betting.

Great Ambassador has been 2nd twice and is a contender to go one better this time. He should be thereabouts today.

Berkshire Rocco has been mentioned already and he is popular in the betting. 4th first time up he should certainly improve but he was beaten more than five lengths that time and has 21 lbs to find with King Of Athens who was beaten just over 6th lengths in the Group 2 Coventry. The O'Brien colt may also find more for stepping up from 6F to 7F today.

I am drawn to Golden Souk from the Johnston stable. He was awful on debut but ran much better next time out. Mark Johnston won this race with Dee Ex Bee two years ago and also landed it with Steeler, who went on to win the Royal Lodge later. Golden Souk needs to improve but he made a huge improvement from his first run and you would not rule him out of it at 8/1 odds.

Smuggler has several tips today and he was only beaten a short head first time up. The form of that race has not worked out though. The winner was thrashed in 8th place next time as second favourite and the stable has gone a bit cold this past fornight with no winners.

In the end there was the choice between Golden Souk each way at 8/1 or win only on King Of Athens. I decided to go with King Of Athens because he was dropping from Group 2 back to Maiden company. He should enjoy the extra furlong as his Dam was 4th in the Irish Oaks and although beaten 8 lengths on debut, it was the Coventry winner who beat him that day.

4.15 Goodwood King Of Athens 11/4

I'll do a wee forecast with Golden Souk.

 

The odds available in the Stewards Cup are pretty awful.

Khaadem is interesting but only 5/1, while Justanotherbottle looks well handicapped on last year's second but has not shown a lot since and is skinny at 7/1.

I look for 16/1 upwards for this race and rather than curse Gunmetal backers with my selection, I went with Arecibo at 16/1. Transferred to David O'Meara the horse found form when winning and then placed 2nd twice. Once rated 100, he is down to 91 now and Frankie is on board. I saw someone saying that the horse needed a huge personal best to win this but that makes little sense in a Handicap race where any winner will have to produce a personal best of some sort. I thought he had a decent chance of running well today so at 16/1 and five places he was my pick. You can get 7 places but shorter odds and poorer place terms.

3.40 Goodwood Arecibo 16/1 EW 1-2-3-4-5 (1/4 odds a place)