Daily Racing Thread Saturday 26th. September 2020

Saturday's Meetings

Market Rasen
N/H 8 Races 12:35-4:25p.m.
Curragh
Flat 8 Races 12:50-4:50p.m.
Haydock
Flat 7 Races 12:55-4:15p.m.
Newmarket
Flat 7 Races 1:15-4:40p.m.
Listowel
N/H 8 Races 1:40-5:30p.m.
Ripon
Flat 7 Races 2:20-5:40p.m.
Chelmsford(E)
A/W 8 Races 4:45-8:15p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

At 8/15 he is a stupid price for that race. No way should he be that short.

 

Oddly, Dorking Rogue in the bumper. Look at the dam side family!!! 8/1 with B365 but hoping for 10s

 

I like JAY JAY REILLY as he has a lovely pedigree and the yard are very good in bumpers here. 10/1 is a monster price and that will not hold.
Henderson does well in bumpers here but the 10lb claimer is not inspiring. The last horse he legged him up on was a very well beaten fav, Buttsbury Lady!

 

I've gone slightly mad (more than usual) tomorrow

13:05 - Soldier On Parade @ 11/4
13:35 - Waitonit @ 3/1

Each Way thievery double.

I know the weights and measures don't help Soldier On Parade against Hiconic in terms of their meeting earlier in the season, and also on their handicap marks. However I think Hiconic has been on the go for a long time and I think Soldier On Parade has improved since his hurdles debut.

Waitonit @ 3/1 single

This horse landed a right old touch on chase debut off 97, the fourth that day has won a little race and Jen's Boy has run two good races in defeat off higher marks since that race too. I think the mistake at the last really made the distance of winning much shorter than it should be, and 6lbs rise in the weights looks very fair. I think Market Rasen will suit and I expect this horse could easily be a 120 performer.

2:10 - Vinnie The Hoddie @10/1 & Lungarno Palace at 16/1

The former won last time after making a good seasonal reappearance. 8lb rise but I think that is very fair and I think this improving 6 year old can run very well again off this mark.

Lungarno Palace has been disappointing this season, however he is the type of horse who can turn up and win a race like this. As such at big prices I think he is worth a small dabble too.

14:45 Highly Prized @ 10/1

I can't believe the price on this one, just beaten by Jamacho last time and well clear of Dino Velvet who reopposes here. He is a class act and this bigger field should suit him more, he travels and he is classy.

15:55 Justice Knight @ 10/1

Was well supported on chase debut but didn't jump very well. Back to hurdles with blinkers on and in a rubbish race. I am happy to take a chance at 10/1.

16:25 Dorking Rogue - 8/1

I love the family that this horse comes from, being out of Megasue, which means he is related to Ballyandy, Megastar, Stonegate, Zhakiera Spirit, Nanny Pat's who I think all won bumpers for either the Gary Moore yard, the Twiston Davies' or Howard Johnson. Dorking Boy is a half brother too, who won on bumper debut for Tom Lacey, and at which course? Market Rasen of course, by 6 lengths that day.


I've backed all the single bets each way, and had doubles of Highly prized, Dorking Rogue and Waitonit too.


To say I normally have one or two views on a racecard, tomorrow is quite something!!

 

I have a small bet on Sun Rising Hill 5/1

Newmarket

15,35 Kryptos 66/1 e/w (six places)

 

What do we make of the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes of the 'morrow in Newmarket?

I am strongly fancying Lucky Vega, and I'm not sure what to make of the Minzaal form as I've not got much time to get into it currently. Method has looked potentially top class with 2 nice victories so far and Supremacy is another who might be hard to catch if he breaks well.

 

Hi all,

Newmarket 3.35pm Good Birthday 22/1 each way 7 places with Bet365. Had go on tonight as thought this was a stand out price at 1/4 odds.

Was third in the race last year and has dropped to a mark 8lbs below what it was in this race last year. Turned out pretty quickly again and whilst his form figures don't really appeal at first glance his last run wasn't as bad as it would seem. The specialist distance of 1 mile 1 furlong is ideal and a bit of juice in the ground will suit. Needs some luck in running but has a big chance.

I also fancy Bell Rock in the above too so backing both Balding horses. My other bet will be Alternative Fact but awaiting to the morning to see if the prices drift on these two.

Good luck all!

 

I listened to the Racing Post podcast at work earlier (it beats work anytime). They were really sweet on Mick Channons Milltown Star in the 2.05 Haydock, especially if the rain comes. So I’ve had a go. (First race special with Skybet).
Also done,
2.25 Newmarket Alcohol Free (deffo not me)
Each way singles and ew double. We see what happens after these.
Have a good weekend fellas. Good luck with yours

 

In the usual cavalry-charge Cambridgeshire today, Owner Prince Khalid Abdullah certainly has a strong hand with Derevo (trained by Sir Michael Stoute) and Tempus (trained by Roger Charlton). Both have very good chances as indicated in the betting. I slightly prefer Derevo, but have also backed Tempus with a small R/F to round it off (yes, I'm a dreamer, you've got to be at this game!) They are drawn about 12-boxes apart, with Derevo over on the far side, and Tempus in the middle. I have always preferred the far side in this race (low numbers nowadays) so my vote went to Derevo, who I backed at 14/1 three days ago. The distance of 1m1f should be absolutely ideal for both horses.
Good luck today fellas!

 

Morning

3.30 Ripon-Ey Up Its Mick @ 4-1 [Bet 365]

Bit unlucky a couple of days ago

 

At the Curragh I went with High Definition in the Beresford, Not big odds but I feel he's a long-term prospect for Aidan O'Brien and it is fairly unusual that those types bred out of Galileo are capable of winning on debut. The normal process is a low key start and then fairly big improvement next time. High Definition went off 7/1 in his first race and that would suggest he was not expected to win his opening race. The fact that he did so perhaps indicates that he is smart and he quickened well from near the back to come through for a taking start.

Long term I feel he is likely to go from this race to the old Racing Post Trophy race at Doncaster and then go into the winter with the Derby as the long-term aim. In a year pretty much dominated by faster colts I thought there was every chance that a win today would see High Definition clear favourite for the Derby, so I have backed him for that at 25/1 with such a current dearth of colts with the form/breeding combination to appeal for Epsom.

3.15 Curragh High Definition 7/4

2021 Epsom Derby High Definition 25/1

Hopefully the first bet pays for the second.

 

Hi Reebs- if you select the race on bet365 you have option of 5 places and 6 places enhanced. Above this you have an 'each way extra' option. This will give you the option on this race to cover each way up to 10 places.

For example Good Birthday last night was each way 28/1 5 places, 25/1 6 places, 22/1 7 places and 20/1 8 places ( I stopped looking after 8 places). It's a good option in these big field handicaps..Each way extra is on a lot of races through bet365. I only tend to use it though in these big field handicaps..

Bet365 the only bookie doing quarter the odds too..

 

Bets today:

Haydock 2.05pm Alternative Fact 11/2 each way
Newmarket 3.35pm Good Birthday 22/1 each way 7 places
Newmarket 3.35pm Bell Rock 12/1 each way 5 places.

The latter I feel has a very good chance although I like both Balding horses in it. Bell Rock was quite ambitiously tried last season and came back to form in his recent run over 1 mile 2 furlongs. Strikes me as the type to really enjoy a strongly run Cambridgeshire over a furlong less. Murphy rides and horse likes the course. Interestingly owner has 3 runners in the race so must be trying to win it..this her chief hope.

Good Birthday runs off 8lb Mark lower than last season and finished 3rd in it behind Lord North. Not sure if he is a bit regressive or whether this has been the aim all season but at 22/1 I 'll take a chance.

Good luck all!

 

Yep..plus Paddy Power doing 7 places and think one or two others. You will struggle to beat bet365 though with up to 10 places on offer (select how many placings you want) at 1/4 odds not 1/5th.

 

Interesting fields for the first of the big juvenile races and what looks a handicap good thing in the Cambridgeshire.

Just the five for the Royal Lodge but the betting is as open as a greyhound race. Cobh won a Listed event after chasing home Chindit in a similar but better contested event at Ascot. He had no chance of winning at Ascot and that form flatters him but he is priced on the exploits of the winner since. The easy conditions will be no problem for Ontario but his third in the Futurity at The Curragh looks good because the second won easily next time. Pleasant Man is the unknown in the field, winning his debut readily enough and now pitched in the deep end. New Mandate has improved with each race culminating in a Listed race at Doncaster last time and is clearly going the right way; however, preference is for the Acomb winner GEAR UP, although the form of that race looks suspect he is the only Group race winner in the line-up and the mile should be no problem.

The Cheveley Park features a rematch between the first three from the Lowther, where favourite Sacred continued to have seconditis behind Miss Amulet with Umm Kulthum more than three lengths behind in third. The third picked up a Group 3 last weekend, so will this come too soon for her? Whilst I expect Alcohol Free to come on for her Group 3 second last time, DANDALLA has clearly been laid out for this having not run since winning the Duchess of Cambridge in July to follow up her easy win in the Albany.

Several form lines meet in the Middle Park and many will be looking to Lucky Vega, easy winner of the Phoenix Stakes (The Lir Jet behind) but deemed Unlucky Vega in the National Stakes. Method has had a couple of months off since a good win in the Rose Bowl at Newbury and needs to find some improvement to get in the shake up here, as does Tactical, only a fair fifth in the Prix Morny last time when well fancied. Supremacy is definitely one for the clock watchers as the form of his runaway victory in the Richmond has worked out poorly and HQ is quite different to Goodwood. If my jinx jockey can steer a straight line, impressive Gimcrack winner MINZAAL can keep the Hamdan bandwagon rolling on this season.

I cannot do my jinx jockey twice on the same card, so I will only be watching Montatham in the Cambridgeshire. As it is I can see the favourite being “smashed up” with just a 4lb penalty for a facile win last time: Tempus comes from a very good family and could soon be running in pattern races.