Royal Stud 2022

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Barrier makes her debut and totally loses her chance at the gate. She was left at least 6 lengths. A shame, she'll need to wake up her ideas next time and show us what she's capable of. Picked out by some paddock critics as really good looking. Ultimately finished 7th of 11.

Duty Bound runs this evening and hopefully will show some of the promise he seemed to have when winning at Sandown
 
Two Royal runners at Goodwood this afternoon. Both of them look to be up against it, with Perfect Alibi taking on Hoo Ya Mal in the March Stakes looking very tough. No doubt she'll try to lead all the way and try to put the Derby 2nd under pressure. I hope she does.
The 2nd runner is Candle of Hope, who is 5th in the betting for this field of 8. Obviously her run in the Denford Stakes wasn't quite what was expected. However as I said at the time she was ridden to outsprint the Godolphin winner, who had already finished 2nd in the Superlative Stakes. In my view a stupid plan. She had proved she stayed 7f well, and there's every chance she'll stay further. So today I'm expecting a more positive ride from new jockey (for her) Cowley. At 8-1 she looks a good EW bet.
 
Two Royal bubbles (Desert Hero and Candle of Hope) burst in quick succession. It remains to be seen whether they can rebuild their reputations. So what else is there?

This time last year Gosden had all his Royal 2yos out by mid-September. This year he has not even entered one. Stoute has run two colts and by default Theme Park must go to the top of the pile due to his 2nd to Silver Knott at Kempton, after this the Godolphin colt then went on to win the Solario. Theme Park is entered in a Kempton maiden on Friday. Stoute’s other colt to run was Circle of Fire and he reappears on Thursday at Salisbury, with Moore booked to ride.
Balding had no 2yo Royal winners last year, which was a surprise after a couple of good years. He hasn’t so far had one this year, but has two entered this week. The first is Juryman, who has an entry on Friday at Ascot. He’s a Recorder half-brother to Tactical, who won over 5f as a 2yo at Royal Ascot. Unsurprisingly Juryman starts in a 6f maiden. Their dam, Make Fast, won over 6f as a 2yo and was by Makfi out of a mare who seemed to stay 8f. Make Fast was also 2nd in the Radley Stakes over an extended 7f, so Juryman should get 8f eventually. I fancied him to be one of the early 2yos but here he is starting in September. Recorder hasn’t been a particularly successful sire.
Balding also has his ‘gate failure’ Barrier entered later in the day at both Ascot and Haydock. With luck she’ll get off on level terms this time and being by Australia should enjoy the 8f.

But where are the rest of the 2yos? I did notice that Haggas has his unraced Siyouni filly out of Estimate, Market Value, entered on Arc day in the big fillies 2yo race, but most of these entries have been pie in the sky in the past.
 
A burst of activity, headed by the comfortable win of Naval College yesterday. This gelding is the 6th foal of the very disappointing Sequence and only her 2nd winner. Sequence is a half-sister to Derby/Arc winner Sinndar, and one would hope should do better than this. She has no 2yo or yearling and just a foal by the disappointing Recorder. There is a maiden 4yo Siyouni filly, Orderofsuccession, who may be in the Royal Stud.
Tomorrow, as hoped Juryman and Barrier run at Ascot, with Probert getting both mounts. Theme Park goes to Haydock with Kingscote riding, while the disappointing Duty Bound has Horny in the plate at Kempton.

Today Moore rides Circle of Fire at Salisbury for Stoute. Hopefully he'll have learnt something from his first run.
 
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At 11/4 yesterday, backed into 7/4 fav today. Circle of Fire comfortably won his maiden. The 8th furlong seemed to help but although hard ridden it was mostly hands and heels until he began to bear right and Moore gave him a couple of correcting taps.
As a son of Almanzoor out of a 12f, Galileo, winning mare he should get 10f easily. Still looked a bit green, the Zetland may be a good race for him. He has no fancy entries but could be useful.
 
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Four Royal runners today, hoping to keep up the momentum of the last 2 day (2 runners, 2 winners, both Stoute/Moore). Unfortunately Theme Park looks unbackable. I do think the bookies are taking a chance with the prices of the two Balding 2yos.

Going back to Circle of Fire, he's the 4th foal but only 3rd to race and pleasingly the 3rd to win. Flarepath (Exceed and Excel) won as a 2yo while Evening Sun (Muharraar) showed promising form as a 2yo, won over 7f as a 3yo and was sold for 150,000gns. He's done well in the US, winning Grade races there over 8f. The mare Fiery Sunset was bred by Juddmonte and is from the family of Xaar and earlier El Gran Senor. There's a Fastnet Rock yearling colt and a Time Test filly foal.
 
Theme Park won as expected. A workmanlike performance, he led all the way coming under considerable pressure from several opponents 2f out. He went on by a length coming into the final furlong but then had to resist the challenge of newcomer Alexandrette ( a Rausing bred horse, though despite the name not from her A family: one to watch) and finished a neck clear. Despite the narrow victory, Kingscote seemed to be doing the minimum to get him home. I don't think Stoute (his 3rd Royal winner in 3 days) will ask too much of this colt this year, but he'll do better.
Tactical's half-brother, Juryman, ran fairly green and was looked after by Probert. With luck he'll come on for this gentle debut. Meanwhile Barrier ran better than her 4th of 8 suggests. She was a bit green again but when making her challenge was hampered and from then on Probert took care of her. She looks as if she needs a minimum mile and a 10f maiden may be within her grasp. It wouldn't surprise me if she's better on softer ground.

So here's the 2yo scores on the doors.

Stoute 4 horses 2 runners 2 winners 2 wins
Hughes 2 horses 1 runner 1 winner 2 wins
Haggas 4 horses 2 runners 1 winner 1 win
Charlton 2 horses 1 runner 1 winner 1 win (Garner, who won his 2nd race was a week later taken out of training)
Bell 3 horses 1 runner 0 winners (Crosstitch, who ran 3 times, was sold)
Balding 4 horses 3 runners 0 winners
Cox 3 horses 1 runner 0 winners
Gosden 4 horses 0 runners
Hannon 1 horse 0 runners (Playback was taken out of traning)

Some gaps there, so plenty to play for. Good to see Stoute at the top of the table.
 
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An important day for the Queen as Love Affairs chalks (at Goodwood) up her 20th win of the year.

Still 16 2yos to run or in fact be entered.
 
Out of respect for our late Queen, and her family, driven by my own feeling of personal allegiance to her, built of years of experience and understanding, I will not post on this thread until after the State Funeral of Queen Elizabeth II.
We will miss her.
 
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I didn't want to return to this thread with a controversial note, but I've just read the Julian Muscat article on the Royal Year to Remember: namely 2021. Mr Muscat must be the honorary secretary of the John Warren appreciation society. It comes across as that anyway. Also a lot of what he writes is wrong, and centres around Warren taking over as Racing Manager in 2001. He makes a comparison between 2021 and 2001 (when The Queen won 6 races). One point was that in 2021 The Queen had two Group winners Reach for the Moon and Light Refrain, and says the latter was the result of a family brought into the Royal Stud post 2001. This is incorrect, as the Queen's colt Green Line went into training with Richard Hannon Sr in 2001, having been born at the Royal Stud in 1999. So The Queen is likely to have owned his dam in 1997. So wrong there Mr Muscat, the Queen had another colt called Snow Bunting out of the dam, Marl, in 1998.
His thesis is that the Royal Stud has changed markedly (and it has) and for the better (which needs to be interpreted). These are the winners from pre-2001 owned families in 2021:-
Kings Lynn 2 races
Otago 2 races but sold
Spring is Sprung 1 race
Encourage 1 race
Light Refrain 2 races
Wink of an Eye 4 races
Chalk Stream 4 races
Reach for the Moon 2 races
Realist 1 race
Silver Screen 1 race
Fresh Fancy 1 race
Pied Piper 1 race
Bookmark 2 races but sold
Tynwald 2 races
That's 26 wins for the old families
To this must be added 4 wins for brought in horses, which means at most there were 6 wins for NEW families.

As Muscat said there were almost 3 times as many NEW mares than OLD mares, I'd say the OLD mares are more than pulling their weight.

Sorry Mr Muscat get your facts right.
 
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The Royal period of mourning seems to extend to the entry of horses, as none have been entered for likely races since Monday's funeral. If this is the case, then none will be entered until Tuesday, possibly Monday of next week. There is one colt, Educator, entered for the 28th but that entry was made before the 8th September.
 
Royal entries did appear but disturbingly no 2yos. Spring is Sprung, Saga and Educator were entered for Thursday's Salisbury meeting, while Perfect Alibi got an entry at Ascot on Friday. So there's no embargo on entries. It remains to be seen whether there'll be 2yo entries on Saturday, as there's a pile of 2yo maidens.
 
Three Royal runners over the last 3 days, all started favourite and all beaten. In a tough Newmarket handicap Mellow Yellow went off very short but seemed to not see out the last furlong (that, or she totally lost it in the dip). She needs 10f.
Educator came 2nd in a 4 horse race at Salisbury. He looks beautiful but is maybe a muscle-bound glamour boy. Maureen says he had a setback in the Spring and needs a lot of racing (she implied he's shown brilliance at home). He may have a future as a gelding.
Kings Lynn was probably slightly unlucky at Ascot (but often is). Last year he ran some good races in the closing month and may do so again.

Entries being made but no 2yos: why?

Not a great start for our King.
 
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Tattersall's first big sale starts this week. While there is generally no Royal interest in buying yearlings, at the end of the month are the Horses in Training Sales. This gives the King a chance to have a clear out, and the entries are in. Stoute seems to be sending 3 colts/geldings to the HIT Sales. While Just Fine is not a surprise, the inclusion of Kiteflyer (who looked very promising in the Spring) is: there's probably something wrong with this colt. An even bigger surprise is 2yo Theme Park, who has run twice and won once and whose form does not look bad.
Balding is offloading the disappointing Tactical (who should have been gelded a year ago: I blame SBC). He's also getting rid of Duty Bound. Haggas is selling the extremely disappointing General Idea (given a Derby entry in February), while Bell is selling Spring is Sprung.
All these are colts/geldings but Cox is down to sell the Queen's last winner, the filly Love Affairs. He is also selling an unraced 2yo filly called Quiet Life (by Oasis Dream).
Of course, a lot can happen between now and the Sales, and it's not unknown for horses to be withdrawn from the Sale.
A more important Sale for the Royal Sud is the breeding stock sales in late November, when fillies and mares are sold. More than anything this Sale will give some pointers to the future for the Royal interest in racing.
 
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A new 2yo is entered at last, but it's the sale-bound Quiet Life. It's not unknown for horses to be earmarked for the sales yet win. So we'll see .

The King did get off the mark with Just Fine (sales-bound). Educator ran another poor race and if he's as good as they say should be gelded. He's taking the p**s. Missed Naval College, whom Stoute is also sending to Newmarket HiT sales.
 
In all seriousness I think Tactical being sold is one of the biggest racing stories of the season. Am fascinated to see how much he goes for, who buys him and then, ultimately, what they do with the old boy. I've already given my view, many times, so won't dwell on these but really, really interesting to see what happens next week.

Re Naval College surely he must be the ideal type for the NH sphere. Maybe he might even go on to be Dartmouth's first ever runner over the sticks. Although as I've said many times lately this sort of animal, these days, are making the switch of codes far, far, far less frequently than a decade (or even 5 years) ago.
 
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Perfect Alibi gives the King his second winner, and his/her first Black Type. She won easily and impressively, and it's a shame there's not a solid G3 race over 14f she could be aimed at. Will she stay in training as a 4yo? She could but she's very valuable being a daughter of Le Havre.
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Re Naval College surely he must be the ideal type for the NH sphere. Maybe he might even go on to be Dartmouth's first ever runner over the sticks. Although as I've said many times lately this sort of animal, these days, are making the switch of codes far, far, far less frequently than a decade (or even 5 years) ago.
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Yes, one would think so. Horses with form are finding their way to the Middle East these days, rather than Fontwell.
 
Goodness, two 2yo fillies entered next week: that only leaves 10 fillies and 4 colts to be entered. Market Value (a Siyouni daughter of Estimate) goes to Yarmouth for Haggas, while Value Added (a full-sister to Kiteflyer) goes to Kempton for Hughes. Next Wednesday sees that 2yo day at Newmarket, with 6, though likely to be 8, 2yo races and not one Royal horse entered.
Next Wednesday sees the publishing of the Breeding Sales Catalogue (Fillies and Mares). Interesting to see if there's a clear out this year.
 
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