Leicester have been achieving pretty close to 2 points a game all season so with 8 games left the central estimate of how many points they will drop is 8. As other posters have pointed out they appear to have had slightly above average luck so far and they might also get nervous in the run in. Look at Newcastle under Keegan. If they reverted to type for a mid-table team they might easily end with 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses so dropping 13 points.
Another way of looking at this is that we normally get at least 0.7 points more per game than clubs like Leicester. So we should make up 5 or 6 points over 8 games. It is more likely that the two clubs will revert to their normal form over the next 8 matches than their current runs will continue.
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THE LAST 38 LEAGUE
The Last 38 league is a look at how the Premier League table would finish when based on a team's performance over their last 38 league games based on an idea by
@OmarChaudhuri.
The data is updated on a rolling basis after every gameweek and all teams with at least some Premier League experience
are included and in some cases for newly promoted sides data will include their previous results even if these occurred several years ago. For the weekly update articles the table has been limited to only show active Premier League teams.
Teams are ordered by PPG, then by PTS, GD and finally by opposition name.
Common Key for tables: PLD, W, D, L, F, A, GD, CS,FS, BTTS, U%, PTS and PPG. Tables are sortable just click the column headers to sort; use shift key to sort on multiple columns.
Last 38 - limited to active Premier League teams
Team PLD W D L FS CS BTTS F A GD PPG PTS
Leicester 38 24 10 4 4 16 21 70 37 33 2.158 82
Man City 38 22 6 10 7 18 18 76 41 35 1.895 72
Arsenal 38 20 10 8 10 15 18 61 36 25 1.842 70
Spurs 38 19 12 7 10 13 19 61 32 29 1.816 69
Man Utd 38 17 10 11 13 14 17 49 38 11 1.605 61
Chelsea 38 16 12 10 8 12 22 55 46 9 1.579 60
Everton 38 15 12 11 8 12 21 66 48 18 1.500 57
West Ham 38 15 12 11 9 13 20 50 43 7 1.500 57
Stoke 38 15 10 13 13 12 17 46 44 2 1.447 55
Liverpool 38 15 10 13 10 12 19 53 55 -2 1.447 55
Southampton 38 14 9 15 12 13 16 50 42 8 1.342 51
West Brom 38 13 11 14 11 14 17 41 51 -10 1.316 50
C Palace 38 14 6 18 13 7 21 45 50 -5 1.263 48
Swansea 38 12 10 16 12 9 20 42 51 -9 1.211 46
Watford 38 12 9 17 14 11 17 40 46 -6 1.184 45
Sunderland 38 9 10 19 12 7 21 43 64 -21 0.974 37
Norwich 38 7 8 23 17 6 17 35 68 -33 0.763 29
Newcastle 38 7 7 24 16 6 18 36 71 -35 0.737 28
Aston Villa 38 6 8 24 14 7 19 34 75 -41 0.684