Rival watch

[The RDBD]

...

Football is cyclical. Southampton had a run of 8th, 7th, 6th and 8th beginning almost a decade ago, with a series of players (and one manager) who would go on to make moves, many wildly successful, to ‘Big 6’ clubs. Their academy was seen as the envy of the league and their recruitment was smart and a breeding ground for clubs at the sharp end of the league and Europe. Now they’re relegated. Just like Leicester may well be, who won the league in a perfect storm, recruited well for a while, won the FA Cup, and now their hot streak is over and they’re in serious trouble. I know their owners have had financial issues off the back of Covid too. But both these clubs were held up as examples of how to do it, for a while.

The only way to break the cycle is serious ‘**** you’ wealth and a ruthless pursuit of excellence. We don’t quite have the former (though we have a lot of revenue generation now) and we clearly don’t have the latter right now. But I’d rather we try and be the best version of Spurs than copy Brighton or anyone else. Learn from others and learn from what made us successful in the past too, even if some of that was down to good fortune rather than pure planning. And always keep an eye on what’s next.

Bruce Lee, in his quest for martial arts excellence,
came up with the following adage :

Absorb what is useful.

So "cherry-pick" what works from various schemes/regimes,
without dogmatically adhering to "all or nothing" stupidity.
The "sum off the parts" outcome often far surpasses any
of the latter - even when they are are operating at their best possible.

 

[Dier Hard]

They absolutely are. They’ve had a run of excellent recruitment decisions and it’s showing. I think it’s worthwhile to take learnings from their approach and incorporate it into how Spurs are ran, but we should also be looking to get ahead of the next curve. Their approach won’t be a differentiator for ever. The league is too competitive for that. It’s much, much harder to be Dortmund in the PL, and it isn’t easy to be Dortmund in the Bundesliga.

Football is cyclical. Southampton had a run of 8th, 7th, 6th and 8th beginning almost a decade ago, with a series of players (and one manager) who would go on to make moves, many wildly successful, to ‘Big 6’ clubs. Their academy was seen as the envy of the league and their recruitment was smart and a breeding ground for clubs at the sharp end of the league and Europe. Now they’re relegated. Just like Leicester may well be, who won the league in a perfect storm, recruited well for a while, won the FA Cup, and now their hot streak is over and they’re in serious trouble. I know their owners have had financial issues off the back of Covid too. But both these clubs were held up as examples of how to do it, for a while.

The only way to break the cycle is serious ‘**** you’ wealth and a ruthless pursuit of excellence. We don’t quite have the former (though we have a lot of revenue generation now) and we clearly don’t have the latter right now. But I’d rather we try and be the best version of Spurs than copy Brighton or anyone else. Learn from others and learn from what made us successful in the past too, even if some of that was down to good fortune rather than pure planning. And always keep an eye on what’s next.

With our financial situation you’d like to think we could try taking the best bits/ ideas from particular club’s setups and then utilising our funds for a higher target level but then this is also the same club that thought spending £60m on Richarlison was a good idea so I won’t hold my breath just yet, but I do also try clinging on to at least a bit of hope that sooner or later we’ll have the right people overseeing things to help us click into gear.

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

They absolutely are. They’ve had a run of excellent recruitment decisions and it’s showing. I think it’s worthwhile to take learnings from their approach and incorporate it into how Spurs are ran, but we should also be looking to get ahead of the next curve. Their approach won’t be a differentiator for ever. The league is too competitive for that. It’s much, much harder to be Dortmund in the PL, and it isn’t easy to be Dortmund in the Bundesliga.

Football is cyclical. Southampton had a run of 8th, 7th, 6th and 8th beginning almost a decade ago, with a series of players (and one manager) who would go on to make moves, many wildly successful, to ‘Big 6’ clubs. Their academy was seen as the envy of the league and their recruitment was smart and a breeding ground for clubs at the sharp end of the league and Europe. Now they’re relegated. Just like Leicester may well be, who won the league in a perfect storm, recruited well for a while, won the FA Cup, and now their hot streak is over and they’re in serious trouble. I know their owners have had financial issues off the back of Covid too. But both these clubs were held up as examples of how to do it, for a while.

The only way to break the cycle is serious ‘**** you’ wealth and a ruthless pursuit of excellence. We don’t quite have the former (though we have a lot of revenue generation now) and we clearly don’t have the latter right now. But I’d rather we try and be the best version of Spurs than copy Brighton or anyone else. Learn from others and learn from what made us successful in the past too, even if some of that was down to good fortune rather than pure planning. And always keep an eye on what’s next.

The thing about the PL being cyclical is that it's not just off the field where that's the case, but also on the field

Even by the 2018-19 season the 4231 formation that had served both us and Poch well in the previous 3-4 seasons was starting to become outdated, first with 3ATB meta starting to get established by Conte in 2016-17 (which Poch did copy for a spell) while 433 was definitely becoming more prominent in the Premier League with Fraudiola and Norbert establishing their systems, and yet Poch approached the 2019 summer window looking to swap parts in and out of his existing system such as Ndombele taking the Dembele role and Sessegnon being a straight swap for Rose when realistically he needed to break down and rebuild his system so that his team would evolve into its next phase which also meant a different profile of player was needed for some roles, rather than continue the previous phase with different players

Similar can be said for Conte, who certainly solidified 3ATB in the 2010s and won the double with Chelsea after introducing it to the PL, yet four years later 3ATB is almost entirely confined to Serie A or the Bundesliga and no PL teams really touch it, as 433 has become more firmly established not just at the top of the table but also with clubs like Brentford using it, while 4231 is certainly coming back into fashion with Brighton and Villa both using it

 

[The Huddlefro]

The thing about the PL being cyclical is that it's not just off the field where that's the case, but also on the field

Even by the 2018-19 season the 4231 formation that had served both us and Poch well in the previous 3-4 seasons was starting to become outdated, first with 3ATB meta starting to get established by Conte in 2016-17 (which Poch did copy for a spell) while 433 was definitely becoming more prominent in the Premier League with Fraudiola and Norbert establishing their systems, and yet Poch approached the 2019 summer window looking to swap parts in and out of his existing system such as Ndombele taking the Dembele role and Sessegnon being a straight swap for Rose when realistically he needed to break down and rebuild his system so that his team would evolve into its next phase which also meant a different profile of player was needed for some roles, rather than continue the previous phase with different players

Similar can be said for Conte, who certainly solidified 3ATB in the 2010s and won the double with Chelsea after introducing it to the PL, yet four years later 3ATB is almost entirely confined to Serie A or the Bundesliga and no PL teams really touch it, as 433 has become more firmly established not just at the top of the table but also with clubs like Brentford using it, while 4231 is certainly coming back into fashion with Brighton and Villa both using it

I think what’s notable about the tactical stuff now is that it’s far more complex at the top of the game than it’s been for a while. Both City and Arsenal, and some others, nominally line up in 433 but then a fullback will end up playing in midfield and they’ll have a 325 in settled possession, and often they’ll press out of possession in a 442 or similar. When settled out of possession they go back to a 433.

Shape-wise it’s notable that the in-possession setup isn’t dissimilar to what you end up with in a 343, for example, but the kind of players operating in forward areas is very different. For City or Arsenal it’s a striker, two advanced midfielders, and two wingers. For Conte’s 343 it’s still the striker and wingers but also fullbacks/wingbacks. So the roles across the pitch in possession are different but the end goal is similar. But it fell down in our case as we lacked quality and the right profiles across the pitch. The Pep/Arteta system thrives on fluidity and having players do different things in different phases of the game (not dissimilar to how Poch used Dier as a midfielder in 4231) but Conte doesn’t coach fluidity and his Spurs also didn’t dominate possession.

I’m not going to pretend I know what’s coming next. But I think it’s the natural progression from 3atb systems, which distribute players nicely across the pitch in terms of occupying space. But it’s harder to press in 343 particularly because pressing with one is near impossible and inverting the wide players to pressure the CBs leaves you open on the wings. As we prove, the way to beat City is to bully them physically, match their intensity off the ball, and hit them on the counter. But systemically, I can’t predict the next evolution.

 

[Dier Hard]

But systemically, I can’t predict the next evolution.

There may not even be one, though that's something I can't be sure on, nor know 'til x amount of years down the line.

I suppose people of yesteryear probably said similar too but I just look at football now (and has been for roughly the last 15 years give or take) and I feel like it's at its peak, both from tactical and system viewpoints along with player quality and physicality. We'll obviously see minor tactical tweaks to gain edges here and there but largely I don't see football evolving much from this stage, both from systems POVs and player quality/ physicality POVs.

 

[The Huddlefro]

There may not even be one, though that's something I can't be sure on, nor know 'til x amount of years down the line.

I suppose people of yesteryear probably said similar too but I just look at football now (and has been for roughly the last 15 years give or take) and I feel like it's at its peak, both from tactical and system viewpoints along with player quality and physicality. We'll obviously see minor tactical tweaks to gain edges here and there but largely I don't see football evolving much from this stage, both from systems POVs and player quality/ physicality POVs.

It’s always the kind of thing when you know it when you see it. Any system, perfectly executed, can be a winning one. But I’m sure another dominant trend will arise soon.

 

[humanbeingincroydon]

I think what’s notable about the tactical stuff now is that it’s far more complex at the top of the game than it’s been for a while. Both City and Arsenal, and some others, nominally line up in 433 but then a fullback will end up playing in midfield and they’ll have a 325 in settled possession, and often they’ll press out of possession in a 442 or similar. When settled out of possession they go back to a 433.

Shape-wise it’s notable that the in-possession setup isn’t dissimilar to what you end up with in a 343, for example, but the kind of players operating in forward areas is very different. For City or Arsenal it’s a striker, two advanced midfielders, and two wingers. For Conte’s 343 it’s still the striker and wingers but also fullbacks/wingbacks. So the roles across the pitch in possession are different but the end goal is similar. But it fell down in our case as we lacked quality and the right profiles across the pitch. The Pep/Arteta system thrives on fluidity and having players do different things in different phases of the game (not dissimilar to how Poch used Dier as a midfielder in 4231) but Conte doesn’t coach fluidity and his Spurs also didn’t dominate possession.

I’m not going to pretend I know what’s coming next. But I think it’s the natural progression from 3atb systems, which distribute players nicely across the pitch in terms of occupying space. But it’s harder to press in 343 particularly because pressing with one is near impossible and inverting the wide players to pressure the CBs leaves you open on the wings. As we prove, the way to beat City is to bully them physically, match their intensity off the ball, and hit them on the counter. But systemically, I can’t predict the next evolution.

It wouldn't surprise me if what we saw against the The Sheikh Mansour Team when Conte was having his gall bladder out might have something to do with the next tactical evolution, because in that match what we saw was Romero pushing up from defence but Emerson dropping back from RWB to maintain the 3ATB shape

Asymmetrical FBs definitely does seem to be the growing meta, with the Mansourites and the Bottlers both using it this season (and it has to be said we tried it in 2019-20, as both Poch and the ubermensch attempted to install that system), but I'm thinking the next evolution will be FBs in the mold of Foyth, Davies, Tomiyasu or Hincapie who slide into the CB spots while a CB along the lines of Romero or Vertonghen pushes up into midfield to transition from defending to attacking

 

[PowerSpurs]

When you've got 10 of the best 100 players in the world which is the case for Man City, you can play a very fluid system quite effectively because most of the players have a wide enough skill set to play in most positions.

When most of the squad is in the 100th to 2000th best range, which is the case for Tottenham, you've got to manage a set of players who can do a few things very well but also have glaring weaknesses. Neither Mourinho or Conte seemed to be able to do that.

 

[The Huddlefro]

It wouldn't surprise me if what we saw against the The Sheikh Mansour Team when Conte was having his gall bladder out might have something to do with the next tactical evolution, because in that match what we saw was Romero pushing up from defence but Emerson dropping back from RWB to maintain the 3ATB shape

Asymmetrical FBs definitely does seem to be the growing meta, with the Mansourites and the Bottlers both using it this season (and it has to be said we tried it in 2019-20, as both Poch and the ubermensch attempted to install that system), but I'm thinking the next evolution will be FBs in the mold of Foyth, Davies, Tomiyasu or Hincapie who slide into the CB spots while a CB along the lines of Romero or Vertonghen pushes up into midfield to transition from defending to attacking

Yeah it could be. It’s all about the profiles of the players. It’s not quite asymmetrical FBs that’s happening right now because Jose did that to push a FB wide and high and tucked the other in, whereas when they invert into midfield it’s more about creating a stable box structure to connect the back and front 5s. In settled possession most teams are using a 2/3 or 3/2 as a base and then some combination of 5 players as the main attacking unit.

 

[PleaseNotPoll]

City also have the advantage of being able to play an exceptionally high line with Walker.
Not many teams have the ludicrous pace and physicality of a sweeper right-back.
He's not as technically good as their other options, but he does give them a great option.

We should definitely consider taking Cancelo off their hands, though.

 

[PleaseNotPoll]

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[littleDinosaurLuke]

Brighton have had great recruitment - but to get Brighton into 6th place. That group of players needed three or four top class players amongst their ranks to get into the top four and a few more to be challenging for the title. That is beyond Brighton because of their limited resources.
So as well as Brighton are doing, or Brentford for that matter, their business model and recruitment policy isn’t going to work for a team with ambitions to finish in the top four and win trophies.
Levy has backed managers with funds in recent times and must have restructured the wages policy to enable star players like Kane and Son to stay, but has got it completely wrong with the management structure. The DoF and manager need to be on the same page, players need to be recruited who the manager wants to work with and whoever is appointed as manager needs to able to develop young players and those already at the club rather than be a cheque book manager like Mourinho or Conte, who, inevitably, throw their toys out of the pram when they don’t get their own way on everything.
I don’t know why I posted this, but it’s what I’ve been thinking, reflecting on what Howe has done at Newcastle and (although far from perfect or the end product yet) what ten Hag has done at Utd this season. Improved some players, recruited well and given the team an identity. A lot more work to do but now from a sound base.

 

[The Changing Man]

Brighton have had great recruitment - but to get Brighton into 6th place. That group of players needed three or four top class players amongst their ranks to get into the top four and a few more to be challenging for the title. That is beyond Brighton because of their limited resources.
So as well as Brighton are doing, or Brentford for that matter, their business model and recruitment policy isn’t going to work for a team with ambitions to finish in the top four and win trophies.
Levy has backed managers with funds in recent times and must have restructured the wages policy to enable star players like Kane and Son to stay, but has got it completely wrong with the management structure. The DoF and manager need to be on the same page, players need to be recruited who the manager wants to work with and whoever is appointed as manager needs to able to develop young players and those already at the club rather than be a cheque book manager like Mourinho or Conte, who, inevitably, throw their toys out of the pram when they don’t get their own way on everything.
I don’t know why I posted this, but it’s what I’ve been thinking, reflecting on what Howe has done at Newcastle and (although far from perfect or the end product yet) what ten Hag has done at Utd this season. Improved some players, recruited well and given the team an identity. A lot more work to do but now from a sound base.

I agree with most of this, but clubs at Brightons level can win trophies, they just needed the rub of the green in their FA cup semi final to have reached a final and then they would have had a one off match that they would have been underdogs in, but that they might have won. If they had beaten Utd, (they were the better side) who knows, cups can be won by sides outside the top 4, Leicester, Wigan and Arsenal have all done that.

 

[Dier Hard]

Brighton have had great recruitment - but to get Brighton into 6th place. That group of players needed three or four top class players amongst their ranks to get into the top four and a few more to be challenging for the title. That is beyond Brighton because of their limited resources.
So as well as Brighton are doing, or Brentford for that matter, their business model and recruitment policy isn’t going to work for a team with ambitions to finish in the top four and win trophies.
Levy has backed managers with funds in recent times and must have restructured the wages policy to enable star players like Kane and Son to stay, but has got it completely wrong with the management structure. The DoF and manager need to be on the same page, players need to be recruited who the manager wants to work with and whoever is appointed as manager needs to able to develop young players and those already at the club rather than be a cheque book manager like Mourinho or Conte, who, inevitably, throw their toys out of the pram when they don’t get their own way on everything.
I don’t know why I posted this, but it’s what I’ve been thinking, reflecting on what Howe has done at Newcastle and (although far from perfect or the end product yet) what ten Hag has done at Utd this season. Improved some players, recruited well and given the team an identity. A lot more work to do but now from a sound base.

You have actually in some way touched upon how the Brighton/ Brentford model could potentially work for a club like us and it goes back to earlier where I said to Hudd about basically cherry picking the good bits from their models and then using our position of greater financial strength to improve on it.

I agree that both of their clubs are about 3-4 elite level players away from challenging for top four (and beyond) and that’s where a club like us with our finances could do what they can’t.

If for instance we say in a parallel universe Spurs had their **** together and we were able to sign players such as Raya, Estupinan, Caicedo, MacAllister, Mitoma, Mbuemo, Toney etc for basically the footballing equivalent to a packet of crisps and then focused on bringing in (or produce) a few players like Dunk, Bentancur, Son and Kane then you have the makings for a team that can challenge at the higher end of the table in which rough gems coupled with polished items can then create a near perfect mix that’s only really bettered by clubs with unlimited resources that can buy an XI of world stars.

It naturally relies on getting a lot of things right, as any successful team needs, both the rough gems and the established stars - the latter especially something we struggle with when spending anything over £30m on a player - but you’d like to think with proper planning and proper football people moving towards a clear philosophy, it’s doable. We practically done it with Pochettino, because after building a good young team we brought in players like Alderweireld and Wanyama who provided the immediate quality boost. If we can get anywhere near to that, Spurs fans will go home happy most weeks.

 

[littleDinosaurLuke]

You have actually in some way touched upon how the Brighton/ Brentford model could potentially work for a club like us and it goes back to earlier where I said to Hudd about basically cherry picking the good bits from their models and then using our position of greater financial strength to improve on it.

I agree that both of their clubs are about 3-4 elite level players away from challenging for top four (and beyond) and that’s where a club like us with our finances could do what they can’t.

If for instance we say in a parallel universe Spurs had their **** together and we were able to sign players such as Raya, Estupinan, Caicedo, MacAllister, Mitoma, Mbuemo, Toney etc for basically the footballing equivalent to a packet of crisps and then focused on bringing in (or produce) a few players like Dunk, Bentancur, Son and Kane then you have the makings for a team that can challenge at the higher end of the table in which rough gems coupled with polished items can then create a near perfect mix that’s only really bettered by clubs with unlimited resources that can buy an XI of world stars.

It naturally relies on getting a lot of things right, as any successful team needs, both the rough gems and the established stars - the latter especially something we struggle with when spending anything over £30m on a player - but you’d like to think with proper planning and proper football people moving towards a clear philosophy, it’s doable. We practically done it with Pochettino, because after building a good young team we brought in players like Alderweireld and Wanyama who provided the immediate quality boost. If we can get anywhere near to that, Spurs fans will go home happy most weeks.

Pochettino’s team is the blueprint - almost won the PL title and the CL. Recruitment was exceptionally good and players were developed. I think greater squad depth is probably needed now given the demands on players from the unrelenting schedule and the quality of the top sides (the strong have have got stronger), but in principle, the best of Pochettino’s time is the way to do it. And that is true for any club - even the richest can’t just sign marquee players. City have made some shrewd signings recently - Ake, Akanji, Haaland (for the price), Alvarez- and have brought some youngsters through - Lewis, Foden, Palmer.

 

[PowerSpurs]

You have actually in some way touched upon how the Brighton/ Brentford model could potentially work for a club like us and it goes back to earlier where I said to Hudd about basically cherry picking the good bits from their models and then using our position of greater financial strength to improve on it.

I agree that both of their clubs are about 3-4 elite level players away from challenging for top four (and beyond) and that’s where a club like us with our finances could do what they can’t.

If for instance we say in a parallel universe Spurs had their **** together and we were able to sign players such as Raya, Estupinan, Caicedo, MacAllister, Mitoma, Mbuemo, Toney etc for basically the footballing equivalent to a packet of crisps and then focused on bringing in (or produce) a few players like Dunk, Bentancur, Son and Kane then you have the makings for a team that can challenge at the higher end of the table in which rough gems coupled with polished items can then create a near perfect mix that’s only really bettered by clubs with unlimited resources that can buy an XI of world stars.

It naturally relies on getting a lot of things right, as any successful team needs, both the rough gems and the established stars - the latter especially something we struggle with when spending anything over £30m on a player - but you’d like to think with proper planning and proper football people moving towards a clear philosophy, it’s doable. We practically done it with Pochettino, because after building a good young team we brought in players like Alderweireld and Wanyama who provided the immediate quality boost. If we can get anywhere near to that, Spurs fans will go home happy most weeks.

I've already mentioned why that doesn't work. To get the players you mentioned Brighton signed about 40 players and gradually whittled them down over a few seasons. We can't possibly do that because we can't afford to be in the bottom half for two or three seasons while the process works out.

 

[Citizen Kane.]

I've already mentioned why that doesn't work. To get the players you mentioned Brighton signed about 40 players and gradually whittled them down over a few seasons. We can't possibly do that because we can't afford to be in the bottom half for two or three seasons while the process works out.

Eh?
Since 2019, Brighton have signed 25 players. We've signed 21.

The difference is not in quantity, it's in quality.

 

[PowerSpurs]

Eh?
Since 2019, Brighton have signed 25 players. We've signed 21.

The difference is not in quantity, it's in quality.

MacAllister was on the list and he was signed in 2018-19. According to Transfermarkt they have signed 44 players between that season and now. I think about 10 have turned out to be just below top 4 quality with only one being a regular starter for a top 4 team. So it's a one in four hit rate.

 

[Dier Hard]

I've already mentioned why that doesn't work. To get the players you mentioned Brighton signed about 40 players and gradually whittled them down over a few seasons. We can't possibly do that because we can't afford to be in the bottom half for two or three seasons while the process works out.

I’m assuming you’re accounting for total signings in that with regards to first team, development and youth signings(?). If by a few seasons you mean three, then we’ve brought in 33 total players ourselves (so long as I’ve counted correctly!).

Edit: just noticed you’ve stretched back to 2018-19 with your reply to CK. So we’ll have definitely signed a similar amount, probably more.
Also, you’ve referenced Transfermarkt as your source, just an FYI, they include loan returns as incomings, not sure if your figure has included them or not, if not then disregard.
Their one in four hit rate in that period still far eclipses ours though, as since 18/19, I’d struggle to name more than 5 successful signings in what is probably over 40+ incomings, I think I’d struggle to even name 5 to be honest.