Well, for what it's worth, I never really thought we were going to overtake you in the league, even when you had that recent sticky patch. Our away form is awful and your fixture list is piss easy, aside from the City game. Even without Kane, you have enough quality to beat the teams you're facing.
If you do lose to City in the league fixture, I still expect you to win all your remaining games.
4th is still up for grabs, though. Between us, Chelsea and United.
But if we lose to Watford on Monday (which is probable), then we should put all our eggs in the Europa League basket, as that would be our best chance of getting CL football next season.