Relegation Watch

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Assuming that QPR an Reading are now gone that leaves the competition to avoid 18th place between:

Wigan 8/11 on favourites for the last relegation spot.Spurs at home this weekend.

Villa 5/2 against,Still some tough fixtures to come.Away to Wigan on Survival Sunday.

Newcastle 16/1

Stoke 23/1

Norwich 28/1

Sunderland 33/1
 
The hit on Villa's goal difference tonight is reassuring. Altho our goal difference looked better than theirs already, when you factor in the impact of villa catching us up by 4 points it was actually very close until tonight.

our goal difference remains (effectively) slightly 'worse' than wigan's as they couldn't catch us without improving their gd and ours getting worse.
 
I'm still not convinced by Cruyff's argument about the idea that the 18th place will always stay a couple of points short of the number of games. At this stage of the season, I think teams either collapse (Wolves last year, QPR & Reading this) or start to turn out the results because of the pressure. I still think we need another win to get us to 41 points.

But I would love to come on here when Wigan or Villa finish up with 36 or 37 points, Cruyff, and eat humble pie and admit you were right all along. :D
 
vietnamcanary said:
I'm still not convinced by Cruyff's argument about the idea that the 18th place will always stay a couple of points short of the number of games. At this stage of the season, I think teams either collapse (Wolves last year, QPR & Reading this) or start to turn out the results because of the pressure. I still think we need another win to get us to 41 points.

But I would love to come on here when Wigan or Villa finish up with 36 or 37 points, Cruyff, and eat humble pie and admit you were right all along. :D
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Don't worry - you will :emoticon-0136-giggl
 
vietnamcanary said:
I'm still not convinced by Cruyff's argument about the idea that the 18th place will always stay a couple of points short of the number of games. At this stage of the season, I think teams either collapse (Wolves last year, QPR & Reading this) or start to turn out the results because of the pressure. I still think we need another win to get us to 41 points.

But I would love to come on here when Wigan or Villa finish up with 36 or 37 points, Cruyff, and eat humble pie and admit you were right all along. :D
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Well it's not a precise art but a numbers game.Try tossing a coin ten times and the most common outcome will be 5heads and 5 tails,folowed by 6-4.It could be 10-0 but you might have to do it for a couple of months before it happens.It's fairly likely that Wigan will take five or six points from their remaining games and that Villa will take four or five.But of couse they could take 13 and 10 respectively and finish on 44 and 45.(they cant take full points due to playing each other)Similarly there is probably a 10% chance that one of the clubs on 37 wont take another point.I am sticking by the 37 point guess which I did at the start of the thread bck in December.If it works out that way then it's a victory for the maths.Wish I had put a tenner on it though.
 
Both Wigan and Villa are playing well lately without getting the goals. That will be the key, I think. There is the 'football is a funny game' factor as well, CT, which mathematical permutations and combinations don't necessarily cover, but I still think 37-38 is about right. Wigan produced a miracle last year, but trying to do that again will be much tougher this year, IMO. How WBA and Swansea play out there final matches could also be a key, as neither has much to play for.
 
To me the key now is to avoid defeat to Stoke and then Villa. That would give us 40 points and with so many other teams at the bottom playing each other it would take a lot for us to go. Plus as has been said above the goal difference with Villa does effectively give us the extra point. Finally, by the time we play Man Citeh, they surely won't give a proverbial so we shouldn't get drubbed as usual and so protecting the GD as it stands.
 
As the matches have progressed, we are now in a relatively good position. With games at Stoke and home to Villa next, Wigan will certainly want us to win those to give them a better chance. I think we have a better chance of winning at Stoke.
 
Four matches this weekend that are absolutely crucial to the fight to avoid the drop.Saturday 3pm it's:

Stoke City v Norwich City

Wigan v Spurs

Newcastle v Liverpool

And then on Monday night

Aston Villa v Sunderland


Beginning at Wigan,it's imperative that they get all three points after two defeats on the road the steam has definitely run out of the annual Wigan survival spurt.32 points or less with four to play would be looking very shaky.

At The Brittania a point a piece would not be a disaster for either team laving The Potters on 38 and Norwich on 39 with three games left.That result would suit Norwich more than Stoke,but given the two teams styles of play it looks a likely outcome.

Newcastle will want three points too and now that the cannibal is sidelined that looks a more likely scenario.Liverpool have stuttered anyway and look to be outside the elite top group for a while yet.

Villa -Sunderland is the big one this weekend.A home win and Villa are right back in the mix,anything less and Lambert will be heading for the following weekend's showdown at Carrow Rd desperate for the three points to stay in touch.Defeat,or even a draw there could set up the final Wigan -Villa game nicely.
 
That is actually how I see the most likely outcomes.Interestingly the bookies odds on offer for all four games are very close to 5/2 the draws.Spurs are very short for the away win at roughly evens while Villa are the favourites for a home win at 5/4.
 
That is actually how I see the most likely outcomes.Interestingly the bookies odds on offer for all four games are very close to 5/2 the draws.Spurs are very short for the away win at roughly evens while Villa are the favourites for a home win at 5/4.
 
i think we will be just edged out by Stoke, 2-1, after their win vs QPR gives them a boost at home despite all the Pulis bashers, draw with Villa and beat WBA
42 points going into the last game
that's how i see it now
 
Can't help but feel that the Stoke result was a false dawn for them. By all accounts they really did not deserve the win.

Also, they have got to the same place where Chelsea were a few months ago and Villa were last season - the crowd are so badly on their back at home (or, more likely, the manager's back) that the team is actually performing better away.

I think we've got our best chance of an away win now, but I suspect we'll only manage a draw. I really hope that Hughton recognises that this is not the time to beat Stoke at their own game, better to keep it on the deck.
 
Canary Rob said:
Can't help but feel that the Stoke result was a false dawn for them. By all accounts they really did not deserve the win.

Also, they have got to the same place where Chelsea were a few months ago and Villa were last season - the crowd are so badly on their back at home (or, more likely, the manager's back) that the team is actually performing better away.

I think we've got our best chance of an away win now, but I suspect we'll only manage a draw. I really hope that Hughton recognises that this is not the time to beat Stoke at their own game, better to keep it on the deck.
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I was thinking something similar, QPR really should have won at the weekend, they were pretty unlucky, Stoke just took their (few) chances. As for playing Stoke at their own game, it's a tough one as I don't know if we've currently got the right players to play significantly differently to disrupt them. Wessi would be pretty lightweight against their back line, and they're missing a key CB which could make them more vulnerable, especially as their defending from set-pieces has been poor of late.

Another factor is that for some reason Pulis has stopped playing with traditional wingers. Using Shotton and Walters to support a lone striker seems bizarre, and they'd do better to use Etherington and create some width. For that reason, I'd go 4-4-2 with Tettey and Johnson holding to help negate the threat down the middle, and with Snodgrass and Pilks/Benno wide to angle balls into Kamara and Holt. Whittaker is back in contention so I'd like to see him play at LB, so we can make use of an overlap on both wings. Ruddy back could also be a big help, as he's better with the inevitable high balls.
 
I like CH's comments about 'finish the season flying'. One win out of the remaining games is enough for safety, IMO, and it would be good to finish mid-table. That said, I think he will start with a 4-2-3-1 against Stoke with Kamara playing on the flank, with the option of going 4-4-2 if we need to chase the game. It also depends on whether he considers Pilks fit enough to start.
 
Canary Rob said:
I think we've got our best chance of an away win now, but I suspect we'll only manage a draw. I really hope that Hughton recognises that this is not the time to beat Stoke at their own game, better to keep it on the deck.
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... and so say all of us!!!!! <cheers>
 
I have a feeling Newcastle will lose all of the remaining games and be relegated, they have a very tough run in. 37 points being the drop number and 38 being the magic safety number. Just my opinion.
 
I just have a sneaking suspicion that The Geordies will take something from Liverpool.Suarez' absence could leave their attacking options looking a little toothless.
 
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