Relegation Watch

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Cruyff's Turn said:
I don't know what others think but for my money today's result was one of the best of the season.Given the circumstances of the dodgy decisions it would have been easy to have crumbled.Not only did we not do that but for long spells of the game we didn't look under pressure at all.We didn't drop deep as teams often do in those situations and with a bit better luck could have easily won it.I was sat with a couple of Mackems in the pub and they reconed that it was not a red card and it was either no penalty or one a piece.
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Was a huge point and required a big performance to get it. Very proud of them. International break so rest em up. tettey and possibly Ruddy back from injury and we are good to face Wigan.

Frankly, I'd take a point there as well, given their end of season jamminess.
 
Yes, a huge point today. Even with their win, I can't see Wigan getting much more than 9-10 points (36-37 points) and they would have to play very well to do that. The key could lie in the four home matches remaining. Wigan have Norwich, Spurs, Swansea and that last match against Villa. Villa have Liverpool, Fulham, Sunderland and Chelsea left. Sunderland have ManUtd, Everton, Stoke and Southampton. Southampton have Chelsea, West Ham, WBA and Stoke. By comparison, City have Swansea, Reading, Villa and WBA.
 
I thought 38 points would've been enough. However, Wigan always seems to make the other teams needing that extra win. Looks like one from eight to go with the two who play in blue and white hoops. Long way to go of course.
 
OK DHCanary, thanks. If I mess up with my posts, please advise me! Not quite sure with all these options. I have to say, been looking at other forums and I don't like the bitching towards other City fans. This site seems more sensible. We all have opinions, we're all 'managers' and want to see our team win!
 
Does anyone know when Wigan play their game in hand which is Manchester City away? Hopefully their FA Cup and Newcastle's Europa Cup exploits can hold them back.
 
Hi Guys - what are you worrying about? I believe City will be fine.

Relegation is between the current bottom 6, with the bottom 4 most likely. Having said that, I have a sneaky (smallish) bet on Wigan staying up.
 
As City seem to be a bogey team for the four starting with an 'S' and the two in blue and white hoops, we will get a minimum of three points. If we don't get at least five then finish the job at home to Aston Villa.
 
I've lost the thread I did the last version of this on, so here seems the most appropriate place. New graph taking into account the most recent round of fixtures:

You must log in or register to see images


So since last time, there's been some teams form improve, some teams lose form, and other stay the same.

Starting with ourselves, we seem to be stuck on 1.2 points a game. It's dramatically better than Christmas (when this graph starts), and for the last few weeks there's always been at least 3 teams in worse form than us, which is key. On paper, things look pretty good for us, 1.2 points per game predicts 43-44 points by the end of the season, which most would call safety. Also our fixtures, as others have pointed out, are kinder than many of the other relegation candidates.

Sunderland appear to have finally stopped their decline with a point today, but then it could hardly get much worse. 0.4 points per game predicts a final total of just 34-35 points, making them very much relegation fodder. Reading also appear to be in free-fall, the benefits of sacking their manager yet to be realised. Dreadful form, and a prediction of just 27 points.

In other news, Villa's recent revival has only lifted them to the same form that we're on, although they probably have more momentum. Their win against QPR appears to have blunted QPR's rise. Wigan and Southampton are also on the rise, currently with the best form of the teams considered. Whilst most people would say Newcastle have little chance of relegation, the honeymoon period with their January signings appears to have ended, and they could yet slip back into trouble.

Predicted final table on last 5 games form:
Norwich 43-44
Newcastle 42-43
Southampton 42
Wigan 39-40
Villa 39-40
Sunderland 34-35
QPR 29-30
Reading 27

Surprisingly, it's not even close for who gets relegated. By that prediction it's likely the bottom 3 would be decided before the final game of the season.
 
DHCanary said:
I've lost the thread I did the last version of this on, so here seems the most appropriate place. New graph taking into account the most recent round of fixtures:

You must log in or register to see images


So since last time, there's been some teams form improve, some teams lose form, and other stay the same.

Starting with ourselves, we seem to be stuck on 1.2 points a game. It's dramatically better than Christmas (when this graph starts), and for the last few weeks there's always been at least 3 teams in worse form than us, which is key. On paper, things look pretty good for us, 1.2 points per game predicts 43-44 points by the end of the season, which most would call safety. Also our fixtures, as others have pointed out, are kinder than many of the other relegation candidates.

Sunderland appear to have finally stopped their decline with a point today, but then it could hardly get much worse. 0.4 points per game predicts a final total of just 34-35 points, making them very much relegation fodder. Reading also appear to be in free-fall, the benefits of sacking their manager yet to be realised. Dreadful form, and a prediction of just 27 points.

In other news, Villa's recent revival has only lifted them to the same form that we're on, although they probably have more momentum. Their win against QPR appears to have blunted QPR's rise. Wigan and Southampton are also on the rise, currently with the best form of the teams considered. Whilst most people would say Newcastle have little chance of relegation, the honeymoon period with their January signings appears to have ended, and they could yet slip back into trouble.

Predicted final table on last 5 games form:
Norwich 43-44
Newcastle 42-43
Southampton 42
Wigan 39-40
Villa 39-40
Sunderland 34-35
QPR 29-30
Reading 27

Surprisingly, it's not even close for who gets relegated. By that prediction it's likely the bottom 3 would be decided before the final game of the season.
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Wow, this looks good. No West Ham or Stoke in there though?
 
Crucial games over the last fortnight and the situation seems to have changed. Before, it looked like 3 out of 4 for the drop (with the possible addition of Southampton). Now, after Wigan's flukey win against Newcastle (according to the reports, should have been down to 10 men following horror tackle, clear handling of the ball before winning goal in stoppage time), and Villa's two victories, the bottom has taken on a different complexion. It's now looking like two have gone (QPR, Reading) and the last place is between Wigan, Villa, Sunderland, Southampton, West Ham, Stoke and us. Personally I don't see Newcastle being in any danger despite having a point less than us, and I think Fulham's win at Spurs has more or less guaranteed them safety.

As for us, two wins should do it, since that would require two wins by Wet Spam, three wins by Villa and Sunderland, and four wins by Wigan. The spirit looked good yesterday and we should be able to manage that, although it's hard to judge because Sunderland really did look very poor.
 
Just when it's getting interesting we get the boring Internationals,so my focus will turn to Leagues 1 and 2.

A strange quirk has thrown up a bizarre set of fixtures for the Easter weekend.Wigan v Norwich is the only one of the ten games where two teams in the bottom half play each other.All the games are:

15th plays 1st

5th plays 19th

2nd plays 13th

16th plays 3rd

9th plays 4th

14th plays 8th

6th plays 11th

17th plays 7th

10th plays 20th

Wigan v Norwich

So if the form guide works then Wigan v Norwich may be the only points gained by bottom half sides. (OK I know it doesn't work like that)
 
What with Carla's calculator, DH's underground map and now Cruyff's positional analytics, we must be the most mathematically minded board on the whole site. Impressive guys (and gal). Massive point yesterday and slowly slowly we are geeting there. The performance was truly impressive and I think that is the thing that has raised spirirts generally.
 
Love that graph DH, looks like something from a GCSE maths lesson.

although points on the board are better than games in hand (and that's against Man city), Wigan seem to have their destiny in their own hands with the game against us coming up that is winable on paper in their eyes. beat us then it drags saints and villa right back in it, and sunderland in more bother.
 
Cmon guys, if you can get a point at The Stadium of ****e with ten men against 12, you can beat Wigan and nip their revival in the bud. That would severely reduce their chances of yet another last minute escape.
 
I always like to come over here and have a look at your analysis of the relegation battle. Actually that's not true. I always like to come over here and have a look at your analysis of the relegation battle after Saints have won a game <laugh>

It's certainly getting interesting with so many teams bunched together. There's currently only 4 points separating 17th - 11th. And for the first time in a long while, it looks like the points needed for survival might have increased a little bit with a fair few wins coming from the teams at the bottom of the table in recent weeks.
 
I love the stats, the graphs and the mathematical theories. However as an oil engineer who has seen more dry wells than is healthy for my career I prefer the evidence of my eyes to mathematical models. And on that basis I would be very scared if I was a Mackem.
 
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