Relegation Watch

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it's not squeeky bum time yet for us. If we lose a game, the gap closes on average by a point a time, so if we lose to Liverpool and at home to Spurs, we might be 5 points above the drop zone.

although we have some tricky fixtures in the next couple, so have some of the others, e.g Saints, fulham are at man city next weekend. Plus 4 teams below us play each other i believe - wigan/sunderland and toon vs reading
 
I agree that we are not home and hosed BUT we have points on the board and if I were following Newcastle (particularly if Coloccini leaves), Villa, QPR, Wigan, Reading or Saints I'd be a lot more nervous. Were we to lose another five or six on the trot and the bottom feeders start putting runs together then I'd be worried but we have a decent squad and our recent poor run has conincided with not having our top striker and keeper playing. We have got quality to come back and I can see us strengthening this month despite all CH's protestations.
 
Never mind five or six, if we lose another two on the trot (not at all unlikely) and those below us pick up wins then it could all start getting a bit more concerning.
 
...and if we did somehow conspire to lose five or six on the trot (which I'm sure we won't) then we would be bang in trouble.
 
No,we wouldn't be in trouble.Undesirable as it may be to lose multiple matches as I explored in the thread "Secret life of a league table" what actually happens is that the teams below you gradually gain ground.

The easiest way to demonstrate this concept is to go to a site like statto and look at the 18th place club in the league throughout the season.What you will find is this.The club that is third from bottom has throughout the season played between two and four games more than the points accrued.Consequently it is likely that if we scored no more points than our current 26 we would not reach a relegation spot until game 28-30.

Bottom clubs don't generally go on winning streaks and it is just as likely that if one does another hits a losing streak for example Reading and Villa.So they creep up on you very slowly.
 
I disagree. If we lost the next six and those below us win two of those (or even win one, draw two and lose three) then they will have virtually caught us up and would have a lot more momentum than we would. Saints, koo pee arr and Reading are all picking up wins, Fulham, Newcastle and Villa have key players coming back so there is no reason to suggest they won't win two of the next six, and if they beat us in the return games then we're right in it.

I'm not suggesting that we will lose the next five or six because I'm pretty sure we won't, but I can't understand how you'd say we wouldn't be in trouble if we do.
 
No,you misread me.I said we wouldn't be in trouble until game 28.Of course if we lost six more that would put us on game 28.QPR of course have only picked up two wins under 'arry.
 
...and Arry is their manager for the rest of the season, which suggests they are set for a much better finish than they started.

I'm not that interested in what has happened in previous seasons, though if I were I could point to the fact someone is usually cut adrift by now, whereas this season that hasn't happened and everyone is still scrapping and capable of picking up wins.
 
i agree with munky.
although the points do genuinely spread like that, we can't rely on that. that is the norm, but not always. there is no reason why a few below us could win a couple of games out of the next 3 or 4 and the whole thing concertinas (is that a word?) up
obviously some of those games will be between them
we're in a healthy position, but it could quite easily go wrong as Hansen pretty much allured to on MOTD
 
We sit today on 26 points.
I think most people agree that 40 points is safe.

With 16 games left,that means only 14 points needed.

8 of these are home games, Spurs possibly
the only one we will struggle to win.

That gives us 7 home games to pick up 14 points
Fulham,Saints,Swans,Reading and Villa are all winnable
Everton and Baggies are drawable.

That leaves 8 aways.
QPR,Sunderland,Wigan and Stoke should be worth 3-4 points
Liverpool,Man U,Man C and Arsenal we can probably write off.

To me that looks like a max of 15 -20 points.

Over optimistic??????
 
Whilst those games certainly are "winnable" it's very dangerous to assume we will win them all, if any - assumption being the "mother of all **** ups" as the saying goes. Newcastle was incredibly winnable yet we came up short.

Not trying to be a doom mongerer or anything, just saying...
 
The point of my argument is this.Teams that sit at the top of the League tend to take points every week.The two Mancs,Chelsea,Arsenal,Spurs usually only lose if they play each other,there are exceptions but not many.Teams in the bottom six tend to only win when they play each other,again occasional exceptions.

When you are talking about an individual team a change of form can occur but it's pretty fair to assume that three out of the bottom six won't suddenly start beating all and sundry.So 18th place,although it changes hands,has a tendency to rise at around a point per game.
 
Cruyff's Turn said:
The point of my argument is this.Teams that sit at the top of the League tend to take points every week.The two Mancs,Chelsea,Arsenal,Spurs usually only lose if they play each other,there are exceptions but not many.Teams in the bottom six tend to only win when they play each other,again occasional exceptions.

When you are talking about an individual team a change of form can occur but it's pretty fair to assume that three out of the bottom six won't suddenly start beating all and sundry.So 18th place,although it changes hands,has a tendency to rise at around a point per game.
Click to expand...

and we are good at beating teams around us. wins against qpr, reading, villa, newcastle etc etc. we lost to wigan 2-0 but that was months ago and since the start of november our goal difference is +2 and we have more points than anyone else in the bottom six during that period. we'll be all right, i think (i hope!).
 
Southampton's fixtures more than just about any other team's have been skewed with the hard games first.If you get to the end of March out of the bottom three than I think you have done it.Bit of luck at Villa though,you won't get decisions like that every week.
 
i think saints will be fine.
worth noting though that they have played a lot of the bottom half teams at home already - us, reading, sunderland, toon, villa, wigan, fulham to name a few, and won quite a few of them. also won a few away so prob doesn't mean much other than their remaining home games on paper are not as easy
 
Ivan Ramis out for the season for Wigan, that'll be a blow for them.
 
There selling Relegation Watches in the QPR club shop. The trouble is all the hands point down and the alarm never stops.
 
Cruyff's Turn said:
Southampton's fixtures more than just about any other team's have been skewed with the hard games first.If you get to the end of March out of the bottom three than I think you have done it.Bit of luck at Villa though,you won't get decisions like that every week.
Click to expand...

theres been at least 5 occasions where we have had goals disallowed unfairly (arsenal) and blatant penalties not given. it wasn't luck, it was karma.
 
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