Basically, a schedule analysis of all the teams from 10th down which could conceivably be pulled into the relegation fight.
The numbers are the average points/match hauls of their remaining opponents...the lower the number, the better. For the sake of comparison, the average PL team has garnered 1.36 points/match, so anything below that represents a relatively favourable schedule.
Included is the average points needed for the team to reach 38 points, as that feels like it ought to be a pretty good gauge of safety this season.
Bournemouth - 7 home matches, 6 away. 0.77 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.25.
Average opponent away: 1.29
Average opponent overall: 1.26.
Shorter version: it'd be really, really surprising if Bournemouth got dragged into it. Their schedule is quite favourable, and in 9th they're not far from safety.
Watford - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.22.
Average opponent away: 1.63.
Average opponent overall: 1.41.
Watford has a sizable home/road split, so the recipe is simple: win some of their comparatively easy home matches and they're safe. Slip up and they're going to be sucked back into it, because those away days are brutal. For added difficulty, they have been the worst home team in the Premier League to date.
West Ham United - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.49.
Average opponent away: 1.49.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.
I realize that the generally accepted logic is that West Ham is too good to go down. But man, they still have eight remaining matches against teams in the vaunted single digits. Part of their recent uptick in standing has owed to an easier schedule, but it's going to bare its teeth soon.
Crystal Palace - 7 home, 6 away. 0.92 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.45.
Average opponent away: 1.23.
Average opponent overall: 1.35.
Similar to us, a couple really important home matches and some very difficult ones, and they might need to take points away from home to breathe easily...but it's something they haven't done terribly well all year.
Newcastle - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.41.
Average opponent away: 1.39.
Average opponent overall: 1.40.
More away matches than home and a schedule slightly harder than average isn't a spectacular combination, but pretty close to par.
Brighton - 7 home, 6 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.43.
Average opponent away: 1.56.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.
Really difficult schedule, and like ours, it's heavily backloaded...next three are West Ham, Stoke and Swansea, after which it's exceedingly difficult. Brighton needs to do work quickly, or they're in major trouble.
Stoke - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.55.
Average opponent away: 1.30.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.
Stoke is the worst away team in the PL to date, and they have a hard remaining home schedule. They have to be rated among the favourites to go down.
Huddersfield - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.18.
Average opponent away: 1.64.
Average opponent overall: 1.43.
Their next four home affairs are against Bournemouth, Swansea, Palace and Watford; it's a favourable situation, representing the softest home slate of any team...so long as they win some of them.
Southampton - 5 home, 8 away. 1.15 points/match needed
Average opponent home: 1.76.
Average opponent away: 1.19
Average opponent overall: 1.41.
Unique among the possible contenders, we only have five home matches left, and they're doozies. With 15 points away from the line where we can consider ourselves safe without real assistance, we will need to play to win on the road, as we have the largest split in opponent quality home and away of any side. There's no such thing as a good road draw against other relegation contenders...we need wins, even if that means risking losses.
Swansea - 6 home, 7 away. 1.15 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.27.
Average opponent away: 1.43.
Average opponent overall: 1.36.
With a schedule that skews a little easier at home, Swansea can dig out of this. Their home match against Stoke on the final day could be playing on everyone's second screen, too.
West Brom - 7 home, 6 away. 1.38 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.35.
Average opponent away: 1.48.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.
Average schedule, but they basically have to be a top eight team from here on out. Not easily done.
So, basically: if you're looking at teams whose schedules work against them, ourselves (Southampton), Stoke and Brighton have to rate; thanks to tricky home fixtures (us, Stoke) or tricky fixtures overall (Brighton), there aren't many matches in which those three will go in favoured to take a win. Similarly, if West Ham slips up in their next couple, they could be sneaky picks to backslide into the bottom three, because their schedule is absolute hell from that point forward.
Pinched from the Saints board, with grateful thanks to Schad for his hard work, food for thought aye!........
The numbers are the average points/match hauls of their remaining opponents...the lower the number, the better. For the sake of comparison, the average PL team has garnered 1.36 points/match, so anything below that represents a relatively favourable schedule.
Included is the average points needed for the team to reach 38 points, as that feels like it ought to be a pretty good gauge of safety this season.
Bournemouth - 7 home matches, 6 away. 0.77 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.25.
Average opponent away: 1.29
Average opponent overall: 1.26.
Shorter version: it'd be really, really surprising if Bournemouth got dragged into it. Their schedule is quite favourable, and in 9th they're not far from safety.
Watford - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.22.
Average opponent away: 1.63.
Average opponent overall: 1.41.
Watford has a sizable home/road split, so the recipe is simple: win some of their comparatively easy home matches and they're safe. Slip up and they're going to be sucked back into it, because those away days are brutal. For added difficulty, they have been the worst home team in the Premier League to date.
West Ham United - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.49.
Average opponent away: 1.49.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.
I realize that the generally accepted logic is that West Ham is too good to go down. But man, they still have eight remaining matches against teams in the vaunted single digits. Part of their recent uptick in standing has owed to an easier schedule, but it's going to bare its teeth soon.
Crystal Palace - 7 home, 6 away. 0.92 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.45.
Average opponent away: 1.23.
Average opponent overall: 1.35.
Similar to us, a couple really important home matches and some very difficult ones, and they might need to take points away from home to breathe easily...but it's something they haven't done terribly well all year.
Newcastle - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.41.
Average opponent away: 1.39.
Average opponent overall: 1.40.
More away matches than home and a schedule slightly harder than average isn't a spectacular combination, but pretty close to par.
Brighton - 7 home, 6 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.43.
Average opponent away: 1.56.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.
Really difficult schedule, and like ours, it's heavily backloaded...next three are West Ham, Stoke and Swansea, after which it's exceedingly difficult. Brighton needs to do work quickly, or they're in major trouble.
Stoke - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.55.
Average opponent away: 1.30.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.
Stoke is the worst away team in the PL to date, and they have a hard remaining home schedule. They have to be rated among the favourites to go down.
Huddersfield - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.18.
Average opponent away: 1.64.
Average opponent overall: 1.43.
Their next four home affairs are against Bournemouth, Swansea, Palace and Watford; it's a favourable situation, representing the softest home slate of any team...so long as they win some of them.
Southampton - 5 home, 8 away. 1.15 points/match needed
Average opponent home: 1.76.
Average opponent away: 1.19
Average opponent overall: 1.41.
Unique among the possible contenders, we only have five home matches left, and they're doozies. With 15 points away from the line where we can consider ourselves safe without real assistance, we will need to play to win on the road, as we have the largest split in opponent quality home and away of any side. There's no such thing as a good road draw against other relegation contenders...we need wins, even if that means risking losses.
Swansea - 6 home, 7 away. 1.15 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.27.
Average opponent away: 1.43.
Average opponent overall: 1.36.
With a schedule that skews a little easier at home, Swansea can dig out of this. Their home match against Stoke on the final day could be playing on everyone's second screen, too.
West Brom - 7 home, 6 away. 1.38 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.35.
Average opponent away: 1.48.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.
Average schedule, but they basically have to be a top eight team from here on out. Not easily done.
So, basically: if you're looking at teams whose schedules work against them, ourselves (Southampton), Stoke and Brighton have to rate; thanks to tricky home fixtures (us, Stoke) or tricky fixtures overall (Brighton), there aren't many matches in which those three will go in favoured to take a win. Similarly, if West Ham slips up in their next couple, they could be sneaky picks to backslide into the bottom three, because their schedule is absolute hell from that point forward.
Pinched from the Saints board, with grateful thanks to Schad for his hard work, food for thought aye!........
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I don't think it will be that easy! 
