Off Topic Politics Thread

[ImpSaint]

Why would you expect them to act?

Remember, the British state turned a blind eye to (and continues to drag its feet on investigating) the rape of tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of children because the people who were in a position to do something about it were scared of being called racist. This small potatoes in comparison.

In a "Democracy" voting integrity is the No1 issue! Without that nothing else matters. If you can't trust a vote then you cannot trust anything. IT is more in marginals that would become an issue! small swings can turn a majority from one side to a majority the other side. It could swing things into far right or far left very extreme majority control based on small swings created by "small potatoes" that leave you with something very nasty, religious orientated, ethno nationalism, nazi etc! As a citizen of any country if you can't trust a vote we are in big trouble!

Green commentariat talking about "Who are these people, no-ones ever heard of them" is kinda bad IMO. Spinning it as Reform being sore losers is one thing but openly questioning who independent observers are when they are approved by the electoral commission as being nobodies is plain weird because we've constantly heard the same people talking up independent observers of other countries elections.

And on the subject matter you nudge about. Things are changing! The status quo parties are being smashed up! That hegemony can no longer just control everything like that! Everything is being looked at from all angles with all sorts of spin and angles and vested interests but everything is being questioned by someone these days!

It is small potatoes in real life however it is the biggest of all biggies when it comes to the integrity of voting in a democratic nation. Without voting integrity "nothing else matters" and we are not a true democracy.

 

[ImpSaint]

What is worrying in this exchange between the observers group and the acting officer of this election is this line!

"It is extremely disappointing that Democracy Volunteers have waited until after polls have closed to make such claims."

Which is responded to by the President of the Observers Group:

"It is a normal international standard not to issue a comment until after a voting has finished"

So the acting officer of an election by their own statement does not understand Purdah rules! That is the reason the statement was released when the election had closed. lol They are trying to dismiss the observer's statement by suggesting that it should have been released while the election was still going on! Its laughable really. Does no-one in this country in authority know the rules of the things they are officiating over?

 

[SAINTOSPREY]

What is worrying in this exchange between the observers group and the acting officer of this election is this line!

"It is extremely disappointing that Democracy Volunteers have waited until after polls have closed to make such claims."

Which is responded to by the President of the Observers Group:

"It is a normal international standard not to issue a comment until after a voting has finished"

So the acting officer of an election by their own statement does not understand Purdah rules! That is the reason the statement was released when the election had closed. lol They are trying to dismiss the observer's statement by suggesting that it should have been released while the election was still going on! Its laughable really. Does no-one in this country in authority know the rules of the things they are officiating over?

Needs VAR = Voting Action Reviewing

 

[ImpSaint]

Needs VAR = Voting Action Reviewing

"Ya don't know what yer doing, ya don't know what yer doing"

"You're not fit to, you're not fit to, you're not fit to referee...........you're not fit to referee."

 

[ImpSaint]

I think the danger is of the bubble all talking about a change from 2 party politics to 5 party politics when the reality could be this is only true in a transitional period to a different 2 party politics with 2 new parties replacing the old ones!

The speed of this change since the last GE and with 3 more years to go until the next could just be Greens vs Reform with the Tories and Labour becoming those 10-14% parties that lose votes to the 2 new contenders when "the polls narrow" closer to a general election.

 

[SAINTOSPREY]

One Problem I have is Prime Ministers Question Time, the fact is that Starmer seldom answers a question, just comes up with a load of historic babble.

 

[SAINTOSPREY]

The Liberal Democrats have retained a Southampton City Council seat following a narrow by-election triumph.
Chris Shank secured victory in Shirley with just 21 more votes than Labour’s James Clark after residents went to the polls on Thursday, February 26.
The by-election was called following the resignation of Liberal Democrat George Percival, who resigned with immediate effect last month.
The full results in the Shirley ward by-election were:
Chris Shank (Liberal Democrats) – 975
James Clark (Labour Party) – 954
Paul Chance (Reform UK) – 681
Joanne Clements (Green Party candidate) – 539
Andy Palmer (Local Conservatives) – 288
Andrew Douglas Pope (Independent Network) – 122
David Cowley (Independent Trade Unionist and Socialist Candidate) – 16

Majority: 21
Turnout: 35 per cent

 

[Shandy_top_89]

One Problem I have is Prime Ministers Question Time, the fact is that Starmer seldom answers a question, just comes up with a load of historic babble.

This is literally every Prime Minister tbf

 

[Gregm1988]

I think the danger is of the bubble all talking about a change from 2 party politics to 5 party politics when the reality could be this is only true in a transitional period to a different 2 party politics with 2 new parties replacing the old ones!

The speed of this change since the last GE and with 3 more years to go until the next could just be Greens vs Reform with the Tories and Labour becoming those 10-14% parties that lose votes to the 2 new contenders when "the polls narrow" closer to a general election.

I don’t think the Greens have the financial backing for that to be the case

 

[Gregm1988]

This is literally every Prime Minister tbf

Yes. Absolutely not unique to Starmer

 

[Shandy_top_89]

The Liberal Democrats have retained a Southampton City Council seat following a narrow by-election triumph.
Chris Shank secured victory in Shirley with just 21 more votes than Labour’s James Clark after residents went to the polls on Thursday, February 26.
The by-election was called following the resignation of Liberal Democrat George Percival, who resigned with immediate effect last month.
The full results in the Shirley ward by-election were:
Chris Shank (Liberal Democrats) – 975
James Clark (Labour Party) – 954
Paul Chance (Reform UK) – 681
Joanne Clements (Green Party candidate) – 539
Andy Palmer (Local Conservatives) – 288
Andrew Douglas Pope (Independent Network) – 122
David Cowley (Independent Trade Unionist and Socialist Candidate) – 16

Majority: 21
Turnout: 35 per cent

The Daily Echo comments section will be very upset.

 

[Shandy_top_89]

I think the danger is of the bubble all talking about a change from 2 party politics to 5 party politics when the reality could be this is only true in a transitional period to a different 2 party politics with 2 new parties replacing the old ones!

The speed of this change since the last GE and with 3 more years to go until the next could just be Greens vs Reform with the Tories and Labour becoming those 10-14% parties that lose votes to the 2 new contenders when "the polls narrow" closer to a general election.

It is genuinely impossible to predict, because so much of it relies on the 'regionality' of voting.

For example the Liberal Democrats have established a really strong presence in the South and East and are likely to retain / push further in these areas, whilst being anonymous elsewhere.

Reform UK have a reasonable level of support in almost every seat it seems, but they excel in very few places leading to a low yield for their vote.

The Greens are in sort of the same boat as Reform UK.

Labour are getting gored in polling but will still have strong and experienced teams on the ground for when a General Election comes up which will allow them more campaign flexibility.

Conservatives in a similar situation to Lab, although I think they have taken a much bigger hit in terms of party activists willing to do the work and resources.

Whilst the Conservatives and Labour might be really badly hit that will probably keep them from being completely erased.

Our electoral system is such a turd that it is almost impossible to tell what will happen with 5 parties on 10%+

 

[ImpSaint]

One Problem I have is Prime Ministers Question Time, the fact is that Starmer seldom answers a question, just comes up with a load of historic babble.

That is PMQs as a whole. It has never been about answering questions. It is and in my lifetime always has been about not answering questions in a way that gets your side chortling and guffawing. Not a lot to do with Q&A at all yet the bubble still goes on and on about it despite most of the public not giving a total sh1t about it at all! Its a bubble sideshow that they can talk about who "performed" the best!

 

[ImpSaint]

I don’t think the Greens have the financial backing for that to be the case

They haven't got it now. Students and affluent comfortable middle class volunteers cost nowt and the internet is free Its not the 1980s where you need to pay Saatchi a million to get the best adverts and then pay for them to be splashed all over the place.

This "not got the groundforce" or "campaign budget" is very old school. Farage is going after oldies. He needs to spend money on old school. Green's are going after the internet generation.

And even if we play the devil's advocate game of the Muslim "bloc vote" then the Imam's delivering the instructions on who to vote for costs nowt either.

Its the right wing that needs to spend loads. The left wing is pretty much dominated by internet savvy, new media devouring folks.

 

[ImpSaint]

It is genuinely impossible to predict, because so much of it relies on the 'regionality' of voting.

For example the Liberal Democrats have established a really strong presence in the South and East and are likely to retain / push further in these areas, whilst being anonymous elsewhere.

I think this is wishful thinking. The Lib Dems go up and down, especially down when the vote is pinched. If Reform look close to winning at GE they will be down massively again.

Reform UK have a reasonable level of support in almost every seat it seems, but they excel in very few places leading to a low yield for their vote.

Indeed I have said for a long time. They get a strange mixture of hardline old school Tories "Queen and Country" as well as old school Labour "British jobs for British workers" with seemingly none of the inbetween!

The Greens are in sort of the same boat as Reform UK.

Old Greens. They look the real deal atm in this era. They could now go on to emulate the breakthrough that Reform made but on the left! ITs all about voter confidence. People end up voting for winners not also rans. Thats why the vote narrows, not because one of the top 2 suddenly convinced people of their policies.

Labour are getting gored in polling but will still have strong and experienced teams on the ground for when a General Election comes up which will allow them more campaign flexibility.

Teams on the ground are needed to cut through to demographics that are not new media hounds. Labour is losing the older vote bar the most staunch who will vote Labour anyway. Greens are going after those that search out their message rather than needing it spoonfed to them. If you go on most Labour forums they have increasingly been talking shops of (now) former Labour supporters now fully behind the green project! Labour social platforms are now dominated by Green supporters. This matters a lot more with the Greens because their demographic is much more new media and online savvy than the right wing of politics who are in general older.

Conservatives in a similar situation to Lab, although I think they have taken a much bigger hit in terms of party activists willing to do the work and resources.

We agree.

Whilst the Conservatives and Labour might be really badly hit that will probably keep them from being completely erased.

They won't be erased. They will just swap places with the new insurgent parties. polling in that 10-14% region and come election day lose a chunk to switch voters. Tories will become the old reform/UKIP numbers. Labuor will become the old Greens, bit higher base number than 4-5% but you know what I mean.

Our electoral system is such a turd that it is almost impossible to tell what will happen with 5 parties on 10%+

There will not be 5 parties in contention closing in on the next election. Votes will move towards the top positioned left and right parties as it always does! There will still be a couple in the 10% region like Lib Dems and some that are below but have more than 10% seats but there is no room for 5 parties of close numbers of seats. We will end up with 2 big parties as we always do.

 

[Gregm1988]

They haven't got it now. Students and affluent comfortable middle class volunteers cost nowt and the internet is free Its not the 1980s where you need to pay Saatchi a million to get the best adverts and then pay for them to be splashed all over the place.

This "not got the groundforce" or "campaign budget" is very old school. Farage is going after oldies. He needs to spend money on old school. Green's are going after the internet generation.

And even if we play the devil's advocate game of the Muslim "bloc vote" then the Imam's delivering the instructions on who to vote for costs nowt either.

Its the right wing that needs to spend loads. The left wing is pretty much dominated by internet savvy, new media devouring folks.

I hope you are right if for no other reason than if Reform win we might as well pull the plug and ask who is going to stay behind and turn off the lights. We’d be speed running to a USA style setup without the economy / reserve currency status to “get away with it” (and I’d suggest they are only just about managing it)

 

[ImpSaint]

Scottish polling.....from before last night's results! Labour into 4th!

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[Shandy_top_89]

Scottish polling.....from before last night's results! Labour into 4th!

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Cheeky little Conservatives into 6th worth mentioning as well (they are currently 2nd)

Badenoch is doing a truly **** job as their leader, but seems to be getting away with it.

 

[ImpSaint]

Cheeky little Conservatives into 6th worth mentioning as well (they are currently 2nd)

Badenoch is doing a truly **** job as their leader, but seems to be getting away with it.

You could have Merlin in charge of the Tories at the moment. No magic will work. They are in that Hague>IDS>Howard period again.

 

[Archers Road]

Its the right wing that needs to spend loads. The left wing is pretty much dominated by internet savvy, new media devouring folks.

Seems to me the nationalist right completely dominates the internet. They certainly have X, aided of course by its owner. The rise of the far right extremism seems to be largely an internet phenomenon, or have I got that wrong?