I think there's a lot of truth here. Generally speaking how likely people are to be caught and how likely they are to go to prison at all matter more than the possible length of sentence they could get. I just don't think longer sentences matter when people don't think they're going to get caught and don't think they're likely to go to prison even if they are caught. I mean, in theory you can get 5 years for possession of cannabis but nobody believes that's going to happen.
I actually worked for the probation service in London close to 20 years ago and I spent a while supervising offenders (how I'm not sure, I got by but had very little idea what I was doing). Some of them I felt a bit sorry for. There was one lad a similar age to me who'd been done for burglary for breaking into a shed on a campsite he was staying at while pissed and trying to take some plastic chairs or something. It was hard not to imagine myself in his shoes. Although when I talked to him about getting a job we went over his finances and he was getting more in benefits than I was being paid to supervise him! Prison did work in some cases. I distinctly remember one guy who'd been put away for drink driving who said to me "I'm never doing anything like this again. They put me in Belmarsh. There's killers and rapists in there. I'm never going back. I can't."
But as you say, there were dozens of people getting community sentences despite a list of convictions pages long, not attending appointments, getting repeated warning letters and so on. I met Pete Doherty at Thames Magistrates Court and he's a decent example of someone who took the absolute piss. In court being sentenced for drug offences and when leaving heroin falls out of his coat pocket. Just no respect for the law or the situation at all. And his punishment for that? A fine.
The quality of probation officers varied hugely too. Some were fantastic, others were terrible and about half openly talked about wanting to get another job. There was one older guy who supervised more dangerous offenders but was well known for disappearing down the pub if he didn't fancy dealing with someone he was due to see that day. Other officers could be soft, while one of them actually went on a date with one of the men she was meant to be supervising. I remember one guy I saw when his usual officer, who I knew was a bit of a soft touch, was off sick. He'd been on a reality show, was quite overbearing and asked if we could speed up the appointment because "I've got 3 businesses to run." I told him he should have thought about that before getting drunk and driving and kept him there for longer than I really needed to just to prove a point. That wasn't long before I left but I'm sure his usual officer went back to letting him walk all over her.
In summary, our non-custodial criminal justice system was nowhere near "lock em up and hang em high" and I very much doubt any of this has got any tougher in the intervening years.
