Off Topic Politics Thread

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Are you familiar with the First Law of Thermodynamics Os? Or Lavoisier’s Law?

Conservation of energy pretty much guarantees that harnessing energy from natural processes is readily achievable if the will to research and develop it is there.

The scientific research shows we could harness all the power we need from solar and wind alone. It just needs the investment - but once set up it is a permanent and green way to do things which means we are not reliant on oil. Moreover, if we could do it through a nationalised energy system, we would bring down household prices significantly. Investing in the UK will also boost the economy and provide jobs.

 

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I wonder what you would find if you add up all of the free media coverage reform has received in just this election cycle compared to the greens in their entire existence. I’d expect you will find the reform coverage exceeds that of the greens. And that’s before you factor in all of the oversized coverage Farage and his various outfits has been granted in the past 10 years or so. What I’m saying is that it’s not exactly comparing like with like

You also have reform squeezing the very unpopular incumbent from the opposite side to its main oppositions. Something the greens haven’t had a chance to do

If we ever exist in a world where the greens get a spokesperson or someone who strongly represents their issues on nearly every question time for a decade and we have a similar period of Labour government then you can reasonably compare. But that won’t happen for a whole list of reasons

I’m not saying it won’t be impressive. And I actually thing the greens would still get fewer that reform in a reverse scenario because we seem naturally more wary of “further” left than “further” right politics - even though are broadly centre/centre left as a country. Also mostly because the greens are honest about all the tax rises their policies will require where as reform’s plans are absurd and completely uncosted and will blow such a hole in the finances that it would be another Truss type event. They seem to want to massively reduce taxes on pretty much everyone. But also make loads of reforms that cost money.

It is almost as if the establishment is conservative (small c) by nature. Like the people who have the power don't really want any change. Reform are, weirdly, the antithesis of reform. They are actually Return. Nostalgia. Go Backwards. The "Things Were Better In My Day" party.

 

[StJabbo1]

Says someone who ignores the fact that in 2023 more than 40% of the electricity in the UK came from renewable energy sources, wind, solar, hydroelectric, and bioenergy. Wind power alone generated 29% of the total electricity requirement.

Lol

This build is going well, NOT. It's an engineering and financial nightmare.
"The UK's Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant, which was expected to be completed in 2027 and cost up to GBP26 billion, is now unlikely to be operational before 2030, with the overall cost revised to between GBP31 to GBP34 billion (in 2015 prices), EDF has said."
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-announces-Hinkley-Point-C-delay-and-big-rise-i
Other sources have later completion and higher costs.

 

[ChilcoSaint]

This build is going well, NOT. It's an engineering and financial nightmare.
"The UK's Hinkley Point C nuclear power plant, which was expected to be completed in 2027 and cost up to GBP26 billion, is now unlikely to be operational before 2030, with the overall cost revised to between GBP31 to GBP34 billion (in 2015 prices), EDF has said."
https://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/EDF-announces-Hinkley-Point-C-delay-and-big-rise-i
Other sources have later completion and higher costs.

I think you quoted the wrong post mate, but what you say is true.

 

[StJabbo1]

I think you quoted the wrong post mate, but what you say is true.

Yeah, I should have included other posts. This from a BBC news article re Hinkey in January which includes Sizewell C objections. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68073279
"EDF now estimates that the (Hinkley) cost could hit £46bn, when taking price rises into account.
The completion date could also be delayed by three years."
Cost estimates have been expressed in 2015 prices for easy comparison over time."

It's going to mean far higher energy costs from these sources if and when these projects are completed.

 

[Gregm1988]

It is almost as if the establishment is conservative (small c) by nature. Like the people who have the power don't really want any change. Reform are, weirdly, the antithesis of reform. They are actually Return. Nostalgia. Go Backwards. The "Things Were Better In My Day" party.

But that is still a big change from the current status quo which is where the illusion comes in

 

[Shandy_top_89]

Wonder if there is some money to be made by going against the polls at this election, because based on nothing but gut feeling I feel the trends are probably right, but they are going so far beyond what I can imagine I just instinctively feel like it can't be right.

I feel like its going to be the following;

Labour landslide but not quite as far as being predicted.

Conservatives to have their record worst performance, but not by as far as expected.

Reform to do much worse than people think and probably only get Farage in, vote percentage will be in the area of UKIP in 2015 but they will get nerfed by FPTP again.

Lib Dems to get roughly the same amount of vote as last time, but it will be much more effective due to running a much more focused campaign and the extent of the Conservative vote drop.

SNP to drop but their vote to be more stubborn than people expect.

DUP to drop a couple of seats in NI, but other than that not much will change there.


GB

Lab 420

Con 135

LD 40

SNP 30

Plaid 3

Green 2

Reform 1

NI

SF 7

DUP 6

Alliance 2

SDLP 2

UUP 1

The fact those figures seem disappointing compared to the polls, but would still be the most extreme result in almost a century shows how crazy the shift has been over the last 5 years.

 

[Gregm1988]

Wonder if there is some money to be made by going against the polls at this election, because based on nothing but gut feeling I feel the trends are probably right, but they are going so far beyond what I can imagine I just instinctively feel like it can't be right.

I feel like its going to be the following;

Labour landslide but not quite as far as being predicted.

Conservatives to have their record worst performance, but not by as far as expected.

Reform to do much worse than people think and probably only get Farage in, vote percentage will be in the area of UKIP in 2015 but they will get nerfed by FPTP again.

Lib Dems to get roughly the same amount of vote as last time, but it will be much more effective due to running a much more focused campaign and the extent of the Conservative vote drop.

SNP to drop but their vote to be more stubborn than people expect.

DUP to drop a couple of seats in NI, but other than that not much will change there.


GB

Lab 420

Con 135

LD 40

SNP 30

Plaid 3

Green 2

Reform 1

NI

SF 7

DUP 6

Alliance 2

SDLP 2

UUP 1

The fact those figures seem disappointing compared to the polls, but would still be the most extreme result in almost a century shows how crazy the shift has been over the last 5 years.

What is the threshold for a “landslide” in the U.K. system ? Or indeed any but specifically this

Because I know the orange one claimed a landslide in 2016 when it clearly wasn’t. Reagan was as he won nearly every state

But it is definitely different in the U.K.

edit : No real technical definition but was previously considered to be a majority of 100. Typically changed with the 80 seat majority by Boris. I guess due to the context and swing

 

[Shandy_top_89]

What is the threshold for a “landslide” in the U.K. system ? Or indeed any but specifically this

Because I know the orange one claimed a landslide in 2016 when it clearly wasn’t. Reagan was as he won nearly every state

But it is definitely different in the U.K.

edit : No real technical definition but was previously considered to be a majority of 100. Typically changed with the 80 seat majority by Boris. I guess due to the context and swing

There's no technical definition of landslide, it basically just means big win.

The last election was described as a Conservative landslide and the Conservative majority was around 80, my prediction would give Labour a majority of 250...

 

[San Tejón]

The biggest danger to labour is complacency from the voters who are looking at the polls and might then decide not to vote.
Probably won’t make a lot of difference but could be the difference between gaining another seat or gifting one to the Tories.
Also, based on the last poll I saw, the only person who can stop Farage winning Clacton is the Tory candidate and if the Labour voters supported him/her it might be enough to stop the Toad from getting his smarmy face in parliament.

 

[Gregm1988]

The biggest danger to labour is complacency from the voters who are looking at the polls and might then decide not to vote.
Probably won’t make a lot of difference but could be the difference between gaining another seat or gifting one to the Tories.
Also, based on the last poll I saw, the only person who can stop Farage winning Clacton is the Tory candidate and if the Labour voters supported him/her it might be enough to stop the Toad from getting his smarmy face in parliament.

Would explain the stories I’ve seen from the more hysterical left wing accounts on Twitter about how apparently Labour have asked their candidate to stop campaigning in Clacton and the guy is apparently in tears as a result. But it’s only really the Owen Jones’s of this world reporting on this - which is weird because he wants Labour to get as few seats as possible and should hate Farage. But they are more about attacking Starmer for not being Corbyn (already) than actually winning and gaining power

 

[Shandy_top_89]

Would explain the stories I’ve seen from the more hysterical left wing accounts on Twitter about how apparently Labour have asked their candidate to stop campaigning in Clacton and the guy is apparently in tears as a result. But it’s only really the Owen Jones’s of this world reporting on this

That's totally daft as well because withdrawing resources to constituencies where you are competitive is absolutely normal activity, hes crying about something that is standard.

 

[Osvaldorama]

Wonder if there is some money to be made by going against the polls at this election, because based on nothing but gut feeling I feel the trends are probably right, but they are going so far beyond what I can imagine I just instinctively feel like it can't be right.

I feel like its going to be the following;

Labour landslide but not quite as far as being predicted.

Conservatives to have their record worst performance, but not by as far as expected.

Reform to do much worse than people think and probably only get Farage in, vote percentage will be in the area of UKIP in 2015 but they will get nerfed by FPTP again.

Lib Dems to get roughly the same amount of vote as last time, but it will be much more effective due to running a much more focused campaign and the extent of the Conservative vote drop.

SNP to drop but their vote to be more stubborn than people expect.

DUP to drop a couple of seats in NI, but other than that not much will change there.


GB

Lab 420

Con 135

LD 40

SNP 30

Plaid 3

Green 2

Reform 1

NI

SF 7

DUP 6

Alliance 2

SDLP 2

UUP 1

The fact those figures seem disappointing compared to the polls, but would still be the most extreme result in almost a century shows how crazy the shift has been over the last 5 years.

Roughly what i would predict too. Polls are always wrong and people normally vote for the same people they always vote for.

 

[Osvaldorama]

The scientific research shows we could harness all the power we need from solar and wind alone. It just needs the investment - but once set up it is a permanent and green way to do things which means we are not reliant on oil. Moreover, if we could do it through a nationalised energy system, we would bring down household prices significantly. Investing in the UK will also boost the economy and provide jobs.

It’s not just about harnessing energy though. If it were that simple, natural, cheap power would already power the world.

It’s how do you store energy, how do you transport energy & make it usable.

You can take oil, coal etc anywhere in the world for relatively cheap. You cant store wind or solar energy. I guess one way we may be able to have huge batteries which can power the world. Then find a way to keep the grid stable. But right now it’s a pipe dream.

So the net zero fantasy will only make everyone’s lives exponentially worse on current technology.

 

[Schrodinger's Cat]

It’s not just about harnessing energy though. If it were that simple, natural, cheap power would already power the world.

It’s how do you store energy, how do you transport energy & make it usable.

You can take oil, coal etc anywhere in the world for relatively cheap. You cant store wind or solar energy. I guess one way we may be able to have huge batteries which can power the world. Then find a way to keep the grid stable. But right now it’s a pipe dream.

So the net zero fantasy will only make everyone’s lives exponentially worse on current technology.

There's a fair bit of research going on into the storage side. I like the system where they use surplus energy at various times of the day to pump water up a mountain, and then generate electricity using turbines when they need too. Obviously need a mountain, but we've got a few scattered around.
Energy storage in phase change materials like salt could also be scaled up

 

[saintrichie123]

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[Osvaldorama]

There's a fair bit of research going on into the storage side. I like the system where they use surplus energy at various times of the day to pump water up a mountain, and then generate electricity using turbines when they need too. Obviously need a mountain, but we've got a few scattered around.
Energy storage in phase change materials like salt could also be scaled up

Until these problems are actually solve “net zero” and all these initiatives will do nothing except make everyone’s lives exponentially worse.

When the technology is actually available, I will be all for it.

But until then it’s utter suicide and costing us billions to keep up the pretence of “green energy”

 

[Osvaldorama]

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Can’t quite believe the Tories are still running a campaign based on “labour will be terrible”.. when they are responsible for the absolute shambles going on.

They’re an embarrassment and a disgrace. I’ve made my feelings on here quite clear and even I would vote for labour over this current Conservative Party.

This GE is going to be very interesting

 

[Puck]

Well here we go. Tomorrow night there'll be a flood of humiliating clips of senior Tories losing their seats. I suspect Labour will get probably their largest majority ever. But the overall picture is less clear. Starmer will enter Downing Street with perhaps the lowest approval rating ever for a new prime minister and some polls suggest we may see the lowest combined Labour and Conservative vote for over a century. What that means for the future remains to be seen.

The overall result is a given but I'm not going to try and predict exact seat numbers. I do think there's a slight feel of 2016 in the air though. I had a few people quietly tell me they were voting leave back then and I've had the same thing happen with Reform this year. I've also read a few articles and watched a few videos where people - particularly women for some reason - are reported or shown as saying things like "I'm voting Reform but don't tell my husband". When it comes to the polls I think there may be a real "shy Reform" effect and I suspect they may end up with more votes than expected. Whether that translates into seats I don't know.

 

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The biggest success of the tories over the last ten years is to convince the electorate that all politicians are equally bad. The fact anyone in the country somehow thinks Reform are the party of morals is crazy.

We really have reached an era where whoever shouts the loudest has the biggest impact.