Off Topic Politics Thread

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Ian Thumwood said:
I have enjoyed alot of the posts by those people criticising me when the subject has stuck with football and the last thing I want to do is to be personal. I am saddened that there are so many people in this chatroom whose position regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be considered ironic - especially when similar criticism has been levelled for similar errors by British governments such as the invasion of Iraq.

I am not sure that European intervention in Ukraine will make the situation any better. Certainly the idea of supporting the independence of Ukraine with weapons (as well as British mecenaries) is both unhelpful and dangerous. This is even worse that British companies supplying arms to Saudi to kill civilians in Yemen. The threat of sanctions is probably more realistic albeit I do not think it will have the desired effect as China will simply address any shortfall. Access to financial institutions will probably be more damaging, especially to Putin's cronies but , if I was in Putin's shoes, the cutting of gas and grain supplies would be the option I would pursue as this would potentially hit Western Europe harder.I do not concur, as some suggest here, he is a man on the back foot. By contrast, I think he has shown how reliant the West is on Russia for things like grain as well as fuel.

It fascinates me that the opprobrium currently served against Russia has united the rest of the world in a fashion that we have not seen since apartheid in South Africa. Globale pressure eventually brought that regime down without military action and I see no reason why a longer game is not played with Russia. Interestingly enough, alot of other countries such as India have refused to condemn Russia's actions and it is not difficult to appreciate why up and coming super powers like india and China are quite keen for this to remain a European issue which humiliates the West. The world is changing and I feel that both the US and Western Europe cannot count on being the dominant voice in world politics. I would go further and say that Russian intervention in parts of Africa and in Syria will also mean that Putin will be viewed by some countries as a man who sorts out problems. We may consider ourselves to be more sophisticated and abhor the means Putin has at his disposal but I feel that the argument that Western democratic influence being as significant as it once was does have a lot of truck.

Personally, I feel severely let down by the politic leaders in the West who have misjudged the situation for nearly twenty years whilst happy to turn a blind eye to Russian's misdemeanours whilst taking her money. Putin has played a patient game with the West and, with regard to a country like Germany, has maneouvered them in to a position where they are dependent upon Russian fuel. He has out-thought us completely and I totally disagree that the West has either the means or the apetite to confront him. As I said previously. we are now in a situation where a satisfactory conclusion is to prevent closer ties between Russia and China. As someone said earlier in this thread, Russia's actions may emboldened Chinese action in Taiwan having witnessed a belated, concerted effort by the EU to thwart Russia. That horse has now bolted and, I am afraid that Russia is very much the country call Europe's tune in the near future.

Any form of military action against Russia would be a folly and we are entering an era of appeasement until such time as the people of Russia are fed up with Putin and oust him themselves.
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Your first paragraph seems to assume that the people disagreeing with you supported the invasion of Iraq. Stop it. That is a very bad faith move

What makes you believe China will prop up the Russian economic shortfall? How can you possibly be so confident in this. Any shortfall? Any? Even if they wanted to support them financially they will have a limit.

There is a chance that Western Europe don’t even need to have the stomach to directly fight Russia. Russia are busy enough with the Ukrainians.

I don’t know what is so amazing about the world uniting to check the expansionist aims of a nuclear state who would happily extend it’s borders up to Berlin if it could. The fact that you find this amazing is, well, amazing in and of itself

Your attempts to draw equivalencies with other wars reveal how little you understand of the situation. I don’t blame you as it is an incredibly complex one. But you seem to be falling over yourself to blame the West at least equally if not more than the person who is truly to blame here. It is seemingly the go to of both the Radical Left and the “Alt Left”. I’m not certain which you are (and that is not meant as an insult by the way)

You also mention China and India staying out of this and letting this stay in “Europe” and letting the West humiliate itself. As it currently stands unless you are mistakenly including Russia as part of “the West” and “Europe” then I’m not sure what you are going on about. Because what the West is doing is introducing firm measures that has caused Putin to react in a way that a person in a position of weakness would. As I mentioned before - you don’t invoke a nuclear deterrent if you are as superior conventionally as you are trying to convince yourself that Russia are. Why would you need to? Why would you need to try and spook the west out of joining if you weren’t convinced that their sanctions really do hurt and the more involved they get the less chance you have? Always ask “why”. You don’t seem to have done that
 
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Ian Thumwood said:
I have enjoyed alot of the posts by those people criticising me when the subject has stuck with football and the last thing I want to do is to be personal. I am saddened that there are so many people in this chatroom whose position regarding the Russian invasion of Ukraine could be considered ironic - especially when similar criticism has been levelled for similar errors by British governments such as the invasion of Iraq.

I am not sure that European intervention in Ukraine will make the situation any better. Certainly the idea of supporting the independence of Ukraine with weapons (as well as British mecenaries) is both unhelpful and dangerous. This is even worse that British companies supplying arms to Saudi to kill civilians in Yemen. The threat of sanctions is probably more realistic albeit I do not think it will have the desired effect as China will simply address any shortfall. Access to financial institutions will probably be more damaging, especially to Putin's cronies but , if I was in Putin's shoes, the cutting of gas and grain supplies would be the option I would pursue as this would potentially hit Western Europe harder.I do not concur, as some suggest here, he is a man on the back foot. By contrast, I think he has shown how reliant the West is on Russia for things like grain as well as fuel.

It fascinates me that the opprobrium currently served against Russia has united the rest of the world in a fashion that we have not seen since apartheid in South Africa. Globale pressure eventually brought that regime down without military action and I see no reason why a longer game is not played with Russia. Interestingly enough, alot of other countries such as India have refused to condemn Russia's actions and it is not difficult to appreciate why up and coming super powers like india and China are quite keen for this to remain a European issue which humiliates the West. The world is changing and I feel that both the US and Western Europe cannot count on being the dominant voice in world politics. I would go further and say that Russian intervention in parts of Africa and in Syria will also mean that Putin will be viewed by some countries as a man who sorts out problems. We may consider ourselves to be more sophisticated and abhor the means Putin has at his disposal but I feel that the argument that Western democratic influence being as significant as it once was does have a lot of truck.

Personally, I feel severely let down by the politic leaders in the West who have misjudged the situation for nearly twenty years whilst happy to turn a blind eye to Russian's misdemeanours whilst taking her money. Putin has played a patient game with the West and, with regard to a country like Germany, has maneouvered them in to a position where they are dependent upon Russian fuel. He has out-thought us completely and I totally disagree that the West has either the means or the apetite to confront him. As I said previously. we are now in a situation where a satisfactory conclusion is to prevent closer ties between Russia and China. As someone said earlier in this thread, Russia's actions may emboldened Chinese action in Taiwan having witnessed a belated, concerted effort by the EU to thwart Russia. That horse has now bolted and, I am afraid that Russia is very much the country call Europe's tune in the near future.

Any form of military action against Russia would be a folly and we are entering an era of appeasement until such time as the people of Russia are fed up with Putin and oust him themselves.
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Well there's at least more sense in this one than the last one, Ian, which seemed to be tantamount to saying "let Putin do what he wants and keep out of it", which frankly was abject lunacy (and if anything would lead to WW3 and destruction, it would be that policy).

Like it or not, a liberal democracy, for all it's faults and quirks, is the best and fairest system of government we have. And yes, the autocrats are (worryingly) rising up these days. But that's not a good thing. I agree, Putin has played a patient game with the West. He's a chess master when it comes to that. But he's also right now exposed his king with a very reckless move. A predictably reckless move, because he's arrogant and has gone a bit loopy and paranoid over the past two years. Now whether you *like* the idea of putting special forces in to support a resistance to Putin, under the guise of plausible deniability, is frankly irrelevant. There's an opportunity right now, and a very, very rare one (in fact the only one we've ever really had) to potentially begin the end of the most pernicious influence on modern society, without having to go head to head in open battle with him.

That's an opportunity we should take (and it looks like we are). We should absolutely leap upon it. He's an awful man, with awful intentions, who has caused untold damage, and continues to do so around the world (check out the Wagner Group and their 'work' in Africa. Check out the Internet Research Agency in St Petersburg and the influence they have and continue to have, particularly in meddling with Western election process). You hate Brexit and Trump. Well you can thank Yevgeny Prigozhin and his buddies for enabling them to become a thing. Yes, there's risk involved, but we can be rid of Putin via the Russian populace, and this is the chance to do so. It's either that, or take your policy of sitting back and watching him take over whatever he wants. I know which is the right one, personally.
 
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"Any form of military action against Russia would be a folly and we are entering an era of appeasement until such time as the people of Russia are fed up with Putin and oust him themselves."


But nobody here is advocating this, unless he invades a NATO nation (which he would be much more likely to if we just sat back and let him take Ukraine - do you not see that?)

You're also massively overestimating the Russian military strength in real terms, by the way.
 
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St Badger said:
A piece here about the Chinese equivalent of Swift, (CIPS) that may enable the Russians to move money around by using Yuan instead of the dollar.
The system is still a work in progress, but may give Putin some breathing space.

https://asiatimes.com/2022/02/chinas-swift-alternative-may-undercut-us-sanctions/
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Yes, there's talk of this potentially being a way around the SWIFT stuff, and it would bring China and Russia closer together. But so far, the Chinese, whilst not completely denouncing the invasion (or at least not pointedly calling it an invasion) aren't exactly enthused by it either. But the fact there's a potential get-around for Putin doesn't mean we shouldn't continue to put the pressure on, and that solution doesn't help the oligarch assets held here and in the EU etc.
 
Ian Thumwood said:
The world has done totally mad in the last week. I think Putin invasion of Ukraine is reprensible but , the same same token, the response of the EU is actually almost as bad as the drivel coming out of Moscow. Botb sides need to seriously rein in the rhetoric. It is pretty shocking that the talk of sanctions and further action coming from the likes UvdL is far more hawkish that anything being said by Biden.

1. The West should recognise that the addrangisement of NATO is seriously inflaming the situation in the East of Europe and there should be serious endeavours to ensure that this does not continue and, indeed, countries such as the former Baltic states and Poland need to have far looser ties than is the case at present.

2. I think that there will ultimately be a negotiated settlement between Russia and Ukraine and the proposal to meet in Belorussia should actually be what the EU should be promoting and not talk of further sanctions or military action. I would like to see these talks brokured by a country that has no political aliance to either Europe or Russia. (Perhaps a country from South America or Asia where there has been no meddling by Putin.)

3. I have been staggered by the notion from "Dizzy Lizzy" that she would be happy for British nationals to joined foriegn legions fighting the Russians in Ukraine. She should be immediately dismissed for making this statemenbt and this is exactlythe last thing we need t do. We must stay out of this conflict. It does not stand to reason that we condone action of British citizens in Europe whilst criminalising the same for serving in IS. Bth are wrong and neither should be entertained - ever!!

4. The ramping up of the rhetoric by the West this afternoon is particularly wrong. I believe the Russians have 30,000 tanks and the likes of the UK and Germany have something like 200 each. The West cannot win a conventional war against Russia despite the apparent disorganisation we have witnessed in Ukraine.

5. Reading the Sunday Telegraph this afternoon, it is fascinating to see how Putin's government is being perceived by western intelligence. There is a strong suggestion that the real control is on;y held by a handful of individuals. I am wondering that if Putin went too far, how quickly other factions in Russia will move against him. I have a gut feeling that this is going to happen muh more quickly than people think. I am not convinced by the Russian anti-war protesters having any impaxt as there certainly seem to be as many other Russian citizens who approve of his actions. For me, it will be those people who look certain to lose their fortunes and influence in the West who will make the move. i.e. The challenge will almost certainly not come from the streets.

6. It is disconcerting that the EU has really shown it's true colours this afternoon. I have been very disappointed with their reactions and would have thought better of them. They have not acted to cool the situation down but have actually fanned the flames far more seriously than Boris has acheived.

7. The issue of refugees intrigues me. We have been extremely poor to accept refugees from countries such as Iraq and Afghastan where the UK has had such a terrible impact but seem all to ready to accept white refugees from a country we have had little to do with.


In a nutshell, the whole of Eastern Europe has always been something of a basket-case. We shoulf not interfer in the politics of countries we do not understand to the detriment of other countries that are considered as an enemy. I just think that this is a massive failure of diplomacy and far too many people are itching for a war. This reminds me so much of what happened to kick World War One off. Effecitvely, the west should not meddle and not be involved. Russia has never grasped the principle of democracy and whilst they have occasionally waved a flag for internationalism, it is naive to think they will ever share our values. If it does kick off, I think that America is very likely to sit this one out and let Europe get on and sort out it;s own mess. Shame that many of the politicians cannot see that an form of conflict is to no one's advantage and is not what the people they represent want. The Russians will all too soon get rid of Putin and it is just a time of being patient.
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The EU have been brilliant, and are a far better example than the UK. The fact is, the Ukrainian president is leading his nation in a fight for survival, and has asked for our help, so I see no problem at all with doing what we can. The war in Ukraine is happening, now, despite many weeks of diplomacy, because Putin is a madman.

And on the British nationals fighting thing, this may be a pretext to quietly send in some Black Ops units to wreak havoc in an anonymous way.
 
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ChilcoSaint said:
The EU have been brilliant, and are a far better example than the UK. The fact is, the Ukrainian president is leading his nation in a fight for survival, and has asked for our help, so I see no problem at all with doing what we can. The war in Ukraine is happening, now, despite many weeks of diplomacy, because Putin is a madman.

And on the British nationals fighting thing, this may be a pretext to quietly send in some Black Ops units to wreak havoc in an anonymous way.
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How would that end up working out if the Russians capture those black ops?
 
Another big risk is that the financial sanctions hit us as badly as they hit Russia.

In 2008, Lehman bros failed with 600bn in assets and it nearly broke the system.

We've just frozen assets worth a lot more than that. All of the assets are now deficits. How many defaults will that cause? What sort of economic chain reaction? It’s extremely hard to predict what will happen next.
 
Gregm1988 said:
Last year I watched “The Americans” that is set during the backdrop of the Soviet-Afghan War and it was a very powerful underlying point of the story

I saw someone on Twitter the other day try to big up the Russian army by citing Napoleon and Operation Barbarossa. Completely missing that those where when the Russians were in the same situation as Ukraine is now - fighting to defend their homeland

And if Putin is to be believed - they are very similar people…
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Not just fighting to defend their homeland, but with the enormous advantage of extremely long lines of supply for their adversaries, and the spring thaw. Mud probably did more for defending Russian territorial sovereignty than any general ever has.

And this has been the phase where Russia should do well. Superior weaponry will get you to the cities, but to actually win urban warfare on the offensive depends on well-trained troops, high morale, good operational command, excellent logistical support, etc. And Russia...has none of those. Russia has crazy-long convoys of heavy vehicles and tanks that are sitting ducks:

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It's just kinda a bad army (whole thread is worth reading):

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Why do people defending Russia say “many people in Ukraine speak Russian”.

They’d never say that if the U.K. wanted to annex Ireland. Or given Bolsanaro was the latest - if Portugal decided it wanted Brazil back (and we lived in a world where that was even remotely possible)

It is probably the most ignorant talking point of them all

How about if Germany wanted to annex Austria as part of their ancestral homeland? Because that both went and was generally received so well last time wasn’t it ?
 
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