Off Topic Politics Thread
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The remain crowd can keep on going. Every time they talk they add to the leave numbers. Leave don't even have a presences on the media at the moment other than a few crank MPs that get asked to come on:
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Read the actual results, though; 28% no deal/24% second referendum/11% snap election/8% keep trying on May's current deal (no idea the choice of the other 29%). That's hardly overwhelming support for any option, and there's the problem: there is no actual Brexit result that has majority support. When Remain is polled against no-deal, it wins; when Remain is polled against May's deal, it wins. When Remain is polled in an open-ended way that allows people to substitute their own Unicorn Brexit, that's when it's close.
Far too much good logic in this post.
“We will be fine though, we survived word
War 2 we can survive this” - 99% of brexiters
We would read things differently. We all know that if it is a leave/remain there is about 40% or so on each side that are entrenched. So 28% that want no deal are part of that 40%.
I am not trying to say there is a majority for any option, although it is interesting that no deal has more support (it seems) than a second referendum. I am merely suggesting that as with the first referendum where they assumed that most of the "don't knows" would end up being "don't votes" or vote for remain (status quo,) the current assumptions are pretty similar. They are under-estimating how many "sensible" leavers that do not favour "no deal" will go that way if it is the only option.
I should also add that some of the most prominent campaigners for a people's vote (Adonis / Campbell) are quite happy to state that the people's vote has majority support. Vince Cable is much more restrained saying it has "growing support." Considering they are very happy to use polling numbers when it suits their argument then I'll ignore that it is not going to be overly accurate, this polling shows that if "people's vote" has "majority support" then no deal has even more support.
My main point though is the continual assumption over the past couple of years that all options would veer towards remain if they have to choose and that "don't knows" move towards "no change."
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Thing is though, Imps, Brexit remains a really, really stupid idea. All the polls in the world won’t alter the fact that this is a monumental self inflicted catastrophe. That’s what you are losing sight of here.
They'd only need a tiny amount if you base the results on the referendum rather than your assumptions. Either way there's no way no deal would win any vote that contains remain and soft brexit. As a single option its not prefered to remain and its clearly not going to win as a compromise. Only way we no deal is if hard Brexiteers keep scuppering any form of democracy as per their current strategy and Remainers don't compromise so we end up with the least democratic option and default. Though its of course part of hard brexiteers narrative that this is the public's prefered option
This is basically a 3 way game of chicken at this point.
They'd only need a tiny amount if you base the results on the referendum rather than your assumptions. Either way there's no way no deal would win any vote that contains remain and soft brexit. As a single option its not prefered to remain and its clearly not going to win as a compromise. Only way we no deal is if hard Brexiteers keep scuppering any form of democracy as per their current strategy and Remainers don't compromise so we end up with the least democratic option and default. Though its of course part of hard brexiteers narrative that this is the public's prefered option
This is basically a 3 way game of chicken at this point.
That would depend on if remainers also get a say on which "leave" option they prefer. And you assume that soft Brexit will knock no deal out, leaving second preferences adding on to remain or soft Brexit.
Seeing as all we hear about is "Tory Brexit" and that most leavers are voting Tory, then current Tory member's polling should interest you:
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I’m not sure Labour pushing for a general election is the best way forward for them, right now.
I can’t see how they can launch a new manifesto saying that they would adhere to the Brexit Referendum result, without losing potentially millions of Remain voters, who would potentially switch to the Lib Dems, who are in support of Remain. According to YouGov 65% of Labour supporters voted Remain.
This is possibly one of the reasons for the Tories “possibly considering a snap election”.
They know that no matter how much they screw this country over, their core support will stay loyal, so their share of the vote could remain stable whilst Labour lose out.
Probably best, from a Labour point of view for Brexit to play out, with the Tories getting it through, then see how the electorate vote in a few years time when the true scale of the disaster is known.
I can’t see how they can launch a new manifesto saying that they would adhere to the Brexit Referendum result, without losing potentially millions of Remain voters, who would potentially switch to the Lib Dems, who are in support of Remain. According to YouGov 65% of Labour supporters voted Remain.
This is possibly one of the reasons for the Tories “possibly considering a snap election”.
They know that no matter how much they screw this country over, their core support will stay loyal, so their share of the vote could remain stable whilst Labour lose out.
Probably best, from a Labour point of view for Brexit to play out, with the Tories getting it through, then see how the electorate vote in a few years time when the true scale of the disaster is known.
Tories don't want a GE. More likely May in house thinking of how to keep her in position for longer!!! She didn't discuss it with her cabinet last time round. She told them and then announced it. Remember her turning up to announce the "dementia tax" with her cabinet on the front row hearing it for the first time!
I agree on Labour but they would have to vote in favour. The Fixed term policy is a meaningless policy.
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As Archers says above, whatever the polls say, short of declaring war against the USA or legalising murder, leaving with or without a deal is possibly the worst thing Britain could do. This isn’t really in dispute by any serious commentators apart from those on the far right and those who still think we have an Empire to exploit. It really is up to the Remain majority in Parliament to show some leadership and get us out of this self-inflicted mess.
That's the point. No deal only comes close to winning if you ignore half the voters and rig it in no deals favour. But it's nowhere near the most popular option of the population.
And actually I don't. I believe I said in a previous post when I proposed AV in order to give leave a proper chance that it would probably knock out May's deal first as it would have poor first round support. That would be the closest no deal would come to winning democratically. If you have two votes with leave/remain voted on first than as some MP proposed then the opposite would be true by a large margin and Remain possibly knocked out first.
They might not want one, but the indicators are there that background preparations are there. You read more political stuff than most, so you have probably read about it as well.
Want it, or not, doing it would potentially split the Labour Party vote, leaving them a weaker opposition, even more reliant on other party support than now.
Alternatively the Tories that voted Remain just might switch their allegiance.
Interesting time.
There is also a proportion of people who, when asked, think "No Deal" means remaining in the EU. Estimates in polls I've seen range from 4% to 26%.
Vin
It’s a pity then they didn’t show this leadership before the referendum. At the moment ‘they’ are not united in what ‘they’ want or else we’d all be clearer on the way forward.
CCHQ has been "preparing" for months because of the deal / May / confidence situation. Problem being that activists and local memberships are refusing to join in because of the "deal / May / confidence situation.
What I meant is the suggestion that people are wanting it. It is just a backup. They are in the worst position to choose to do it without their membership on board.
4% I can believe. Likely 4% think a deal means remaining too but not much analysis on that side of the argument. The exaggerated high numbers are as ridiculous as Adonis and Campbell saying that the people's vote now has majority support:
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Full study released in the past half hour
http://ukandeu.ac.uk/new-report-rev...ger-than-party-identities/?platform=hootsuite
No deal is increasing because it's becoming apparent that there is no good deal to be reached, and some just want to get out of the EU at all costs, and 'no deal' is quickly becoming the only (to them) acceptable way to do so. Like all decisions made out of spite, it's not a rational choice.
We agree entirely on the first sentence
The language you use in the second differs from mine. I would suggest "out of reluctance" not "out of spite."