Off Topic Politics Thread

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rednright said:
All fair points and certainly the political map may change to pro and anti eu parties forming. Not a fan of opinion polls - who do they ask? I remember when paddy ashdown (good man rest his soul) famously predicted to eat his hat based on opinion polls and exit polls advising the Lib dems would do well but they were nearly wiped out. Remain could well-win another Ref or it could be incredibly tight again so we would be in the same position. I know plenty of remainers who consistently tell me that the result was 50/50 so would be interesting if the boot is on the other foot. For me leaving the EU is more a political position than econom
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Opinion polls are one of those things that people seem to question only when they disagree with the speaker's views. By all means take them with a pinch of salt if you choose (though they tend to hit within their mergins of error) but one area they tend to be *eerily* accurate on is how much opinion is changing on a subject.

Paddy Ashdown offered to eat his hat because he *didn't* believe a poll that turned out to be right.

Vin
 
VocalMinority said:
It depends how the referendum is done. I still think it will be very close if we just have the ambiguous yes or no but I think it will be far more in remain's favour of you actually define what leave means by choosing between no deal and mays deal first.
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IF there is another Referendum , it will be Leave by a bigger margin than before .

Just based on what I am hearing at work .
 
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Onionman said:
Opinion polls are one of those things that people seem to question only when they disagree with the speaker's views. By all means take them with a pinch of salt if you choose (though they tend to hit within their mergins of error) but one area they tend to be *eerily* accurate on is how much opinion is changing on a subject.

Paddy Ashdown offered to eat his hat because he *didn't* believe a poll that turned out to be right.

Vin
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Ashdown didn't believe an exit poll that countered all pre vote polling. You are equating that to current pre-vote polling on a referendum that hasn't been announced let alone commenced campaigning. Big difference between an exit poll and other polls. Exit polls are normally much more likely to be accurate. Even then the exit polls were under the actuals. One problem we have had is that the pre polls used to be more accurate than they are now and thus were near enough the same as the exit polls however since 2010 the "shy" vote has increased vote on vote as a section of society has decided that anything but their view is shameful.

"Exit polls*" on the EU referendum were much closer than polls that had been compiled in the months before the referendum. they still had remain in the lead but it was much closer. A month earlier there were some polls that had remain as much as 18pts in the lead.
*there weren't exit polls on the referendum per se but there were some done the day before.

Even on the channel 4 program on that Survation poll John Curtice was trying to play down the enthusiasm of the presenters with caveats and they just ploughed on ignoring him and saying there had been an 8pt swing.

And we are here now looking at polls outside of a campaigning period and claiming they are more accurate as they are showing a change........

..........which means the Tories will easily win an election if held now and remain will surely win a second referendum!!!

There is however a quiet confidence growing amongst leave groups on what the result of any second referendum might be and while they aren't backing a second referendum they are quietly confident the result would be the same or more.
 
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Number 1 Jasper said:
IF there is another Referendum , it will be Leave by a bigger margin than before .

Just based on what I am hearing at work .
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See my comment below. I could say it again but it isn't just "folks on the street" to base this on. Plenty of commentators are whispering this as well now (ahould there be another referendum.)
 
VocalMinority said:
"I think it will be far more in remain's favour of you actually define what leave means by choosing between no deal and mays deal first."

Was what you were replying to.
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The Opinion I am hearing more and more is basically " Who do the EU think they are , trying to bully us " , F**k em , I'm voting leave .
 
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