Off Topic Politics Thread

[Le Tissier's Laces]

Appears to be a partial mobilization. They're also greatly accelerating their timeline to annex the breakaways, plus Kherson and Zaporizhia Oblasts, to the end of this month. Which, on paper, would extend Russia across the whole of southern Ukraine.

I wonder if he'll hold these...ahem...referendums, call the areas 'Russia' by the end of the month, then say that any incursion into them is therefore an incursion into Russia itself (and therefore supposedly punishable by the use of tactical nukes etc).

I mean, yes, that's what he will claim. The ****er.

 

[Schad]

I wonder if he'll hold these...ahem...referendums, call the areas 'Russia' by the end of the month, then say that any incursion into them is therefore an incursion into Russia itself (and therefore supposedly punishable by the use of tactical nukes etc).

I mean, yes, that's what he will claim. The ****er.

For mobilization, at least, it will will be grounds for an official declaration of war, to repel the Ukrainian invasion into the sovereign Russian territory of...Kherson.

I think they vastly overrate how scary the prospect of mobilization is for Ukraine. The Ukrainians aren't idiots, and they're aware that the reason Russia hasn't done this previous isn't restraint, it's that it is unlikely to have major benefits in the short/medium-term, and carries an enormous amount of domestic risk.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

For mobilization, at least, it will will be grounds for an official declaration of war, to repel the Ukrainian invasion into the sovereign Russian territory of...Kherson.

I think they vastly overrate how scary the prospect of mobilization is for Ukraine. The Ukrainians aren't idiots, and they're aware that the reason Russia hasn't done this previous isn't restraint, it's that it is unlikely to have major benefits in the short/medium-term, and carries an enormous amount of domestic risk.

Oh I think mobilisation is the middle of the end (the beginning was the invasion in the first place) at the very least. It's a **** idea for him, but he's in a panic.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

In other depressing news, MLT is interviewing Farage on his channel tomorrow night. Ugh.

 

[Schad]

Oh I think mobilisation is the middle of the end (the beginning was the invasion in the first place) at the very least. It's a **** idea for him, but he's in a panic.

The populace is awfully enthused...

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[Osvaldorama]

Putin has partially mobilised all of Russia.

Conscription will be limited to just former armed forces, current reserves and those with relevant experience.

****.

 

[tomw24]

Putin has partially mobilised all of Russia.

Conscription will be limited to just former armed forces, current reserves and those with relevant experience.

****.

He really is a moron. If the Russian army is struggling, how does he think retired soldiers and those who aren't properly trained will fare any better? Putin's making panic moves now - beginning of the end for him. He's backed himself into a massive corner by not making any sort of deal to end this war and now he's ****ed.

 

[Che’s Godlike Thighs]

All those police in Moscow, St. Petersburg etc who at the beginning of the war were dutifully wrestling to the ground anyone who dared to protest, must now be realising that those very same protesters were actually trying to prevent a situation like this. The irony being that I expect most of the police force are included in this 300,000-strong group of reserves. Maybe they won't be so eager with any future protests.

 

[tomw24]

Putin has partially mobilised all of Russia.

Conscription will be limited to just former armed forces, current reserves and those with relevant experience.

****.

In reality, this will have little impact. Russia haven't got the equipment to supply these new forces to fight effectively. Ukraine have been constantly supplied with up to date weapons and other equipment which is making a huge impact. My only real concern is whether Putin will become desperate enough to use tactical nukes.

 

[West Kent Saint]

They need to get him out from within. There must be rumblings in the Kremlin?

 

[Brinkworth Saint]

He really is a moron. If the Russian army is struggling, how does he think retired soldiers and those who aren't properly trained will fare any better? Putin's making panic moves now - beginning of the end for him. He's backed himself into a massive corner by not making any sort of deal to end this war and now he's ****ed.

The trouble is he might be desperate enough to be really insane unless others in Russia act to remove him and his allies very soon. Personally I'm not sure but this I'm sure of, any sign of weakness shown to him will be very painful for a long time for many countries.

 

[Schad]

They need to get him out from within. There must be rumblings in the Kremlin?

He has largely been a hermit since the beginning of the pandemic. A few photo ops aside, he rarely meets with anyone beyond a couple close associates. Makes it harder for a coup to succeed, but only exacerbates his disconnect from the reality of the situation, which has not really improved their conduct.

A big element here is that they're forcing all of their current contract soldiers to remain indefinitely, even though most are on short-term contracts, and they're cracking down on 'refuseniks': soldiers who basically opt out of going into combat, which was apparently 20%+ in many units. That will prevent them from losing most of their experienced troops before winter, but it's also an enormous risk...you have a lot of Russian soldiers (and officers, who previously could resign) who might have been a couple months from going home and are now staring at being deployed long-term. Even before the conscripts show up, that's going to really crush their already-terrible morale.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

On a slightly different note - if you haven't watched 4 Hours At The Capitol on Netflix yet, you really should watch 4 Hours At The Capitol.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

He has largely been a hermit since the beginning of the pandemic. A few photo ops aside, he rarely meets with anyone beyond a couple close associates. Makes it harder for a coup to succeed, but only exacerbates his disconnect from the reality of the situation, which has not really improved their conduct.

A big element here is that they're forcing all of their current contract soldiers to remain indefinitely, even though most are on short-term contracts, and they're cracking down on 'refuseniks': soldiers who basically opt out of going into combat, which was apparently 20%+ in many units. That will prevent them from losing most of their experienced troops before winter, but it's also an enormous risk...you have a lot of Russian soldiers (and officers, who previously could resign) who might have been a couple months from going home and are now staring at being deployed long-term. Even before the conscripts show up, that's going to really crush their already-terrible morale.

Interesting thread here -

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[Schad]

Interesting thread here -

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It's sounding like they're going to mostly going to dribble (barely-trained) troops out to existing units rather than try to create new corps out of whole cloth again. The good news (for them) is that it'll strain their logistics far less, and allow them to potentially rotate units out so that they don't break completely. The bad news is that it might prolong the war, but they're probably done making forward progress. Unless something radically changes, they're basically holding on for dear life and hoping to plug enough gaps that they don't lose more than just Kherson.

 

[ChilcoSaint]

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[thereisonlyoneno7]

On a slightly different note - if you haven't watched 4 Hours At The Capitol on Netflix yet, you really should watch 4 Hours At The Capitol.

Just added it to my list.

I’ll ask my son in law to take a look too

 

[Schad]

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Protesters against conscription are being forcibly conscripted. This will also be just magnificent for morale.

 

[StJabbo1]

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[San Tejón]

Patient satisfaction in the NHS is at a 25 year low.
Strangely enough 25 years ago was when 18 years of Tory rule was ending and the NHS, thanks to Labour, then entered a golden era, before the Tories returned 12 years ago to undo all the good, this time, for personal gain.
Surely, when the next general election is due, the Labour Party can make a major effort to get this into the public domain and convince those working class Tory voters that they are helping to destroy the free at the point of service health care system that is essential for everyone who cannot afford private health care.