Off Topic Politics Thread

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Le Tissier's Laces said:
If anybody retains interest in hearing what my friend has been saying - it's not new really, but does at least provide some very learned context. It's restating a lot what was being said at the outset, which is being borne out to be true.

He thinks that the Russian "victory" in terms of taking over Ukraine is inevitable, as Putin knows NATO can't pick this fight, and the sheer rules of war and the fact that ultimately mass will always win means that they will, eventually, get there.

BUT

Then he has to garrison it, and that will take all, if not more, troops that he's put in so far. And they'll be facing continued insurgency/guerilla tactics etc.

The other point is that Putin has shown up his military. They've failed massively on logistics, but also conscripts will only work longer term and passably if they believe in what they are doing, or because they're defending something.

So they may win the battle, but the war is going to be a long, drawn out nightmare for them.
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I think your friend is right, NATO cannot get directly involved and that, unfortunately, Russia will win the present conflict. If you accept that and, accepting that it would be bitter pill to swallow, is there not a case for Ukraine to surrender, thereby saving possibly thousands of their citizens lives and possibly negotiating a relatively better platform for their nation.

Please don't think I'm an apologist for Putin but , as brave as the Ukrainians are, I think that a pragmatic resolution at this stage may be better than engaging in a war that cannot be won but one which may cause too many Ukrainians to die and wreck their country's infrastructure.
 
milton archer said:
I think your friend is right, NATO cannot get directly involved and that, unfortunately, Russia will win the present conflict. If you accept that and, accepting that it would be bitter pill to swallow, is there not a case for Ukraine to surrender, thereby saving possibly thousands of their citizens lives and possibly negotiating a relatively better platform for their nation.

Please don't think I'm an apologist for Putin but , as brave as the Ukrainians are, I think that a pragmatic resolution at this stage may be better than engaging in a war that cannot be won but one which may cause too many Ukrainians to die and wreck their country's infrastructure.
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What negotiation would this be? If they surrender to Putin I don’t expect a negotiation
 
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It seems obvious to me that Putin will not accept anything less than taking the major Black Sea ports and forming a land bridge from Russia to the Black Sea via the eastern states of Ukraine they have already annexed.
I don't see Ukraine will accept that as any part of a negotiated surrender.
Unfortunately I see the most likely outcome will be Russia will eventually gain administrative control of Ukraine, and the only hope of that not happening is that it takes so long to do that the sanctions and the casualties become so large too hide from the Russian populace.
 
Schad said:
The question becomes: is that a world we want? To the extent that we can make acting in that fashion undesireable for bullies, should we do so?

Because even last month, Ukraine had a choice here: prostrating themselves to Russia, or fighting for self-determination. They chose the latter. It was not a choice foisted upon them by the West...that appears to have been a significant part of Putin's miscalculation, and the reason he's now in quite a mess. Abandoning Ukraine as merely a natural puppet of Russia would be making that decision for them.
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I agree that we don’t want that world order & yes Ukraine have chosen their path. I didn’t say abandon them.
 
SaintStu said:
It seems obvious to me that Putin will not accept anything less than taking the major Black Sea ports and forming a land bridge from Russia to the Black Sea via the eastern states of Ukraine they have already annexed.
I don't see Ukraine will accept that as any part of a negotiated surrender.
Unfortunately I see the most likely outcome will be Russia will eventually gain administrative control of Ukraine, and the only hope of that not happening is that it takes so long to do that the sanctions and the casualties become so large too hide from the Russian populace.
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Trouble is I don't the Putin can afford to back down from this without at least seeming to have achieved some sort of victory, even a phyrric one they could manipulate to look more successful.

I think the war ends either with Russian control of Ukraine, in which they install a anti-western dictatorship. This will essentially see Ukraine become a puppet state like Belarus.

Or Ukraine hold out sufficiently long enough for sanctions and military losses to ruin the Russian economy & state to the point where Putin is over thrown, blamed for the invasion and the new government withdraws and places blame on the Putin regime in exchange for lifting of sanctions.
 
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ChilcoSaint said:
That’s because the UK is one of the few countries in Europe where the EU is portrayed in the mass media as a bad thing. It isn’t. It is one of the main reasons why World War 3 hasn’t actually happened yet, and people in countries like Ukraine know this only too well.
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Quite right Chilco. What a triumph Brexit has been. Like a lot Scots, I feel particularly let down and marginalised right now.
 
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VocalMinority said:
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141-5

Russia's 4 friends are: Belarus, Eritrea, Syria and of course, North Korea. Such friendly countries.
I'm sure Russia will be getting plenty of financial help from that lot to help resist the sanctions <laugh>
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Perhaps they can have another vote to stop Saudi Arabia bombing Yemen.
Ironic that Saudi supported this.
 
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VocalMinority said:
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141-5

Russia's 4 friends are: Belarus, Eritrea, Syria and of course, North Korea. Such friendly countries.
I'm sure Russia will be getting plenty of financial help from that lot to help resist the sanctions <laugh>
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China, South Africa and India are notable abstentions

But apparently India’s energy imports are split 50:50 between Russia and the USA
 
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I may (probably) be being naive here, but I wonder if there's a glimmer of hope that Lavrov is saying that Russia recognises Lezensky as the legitimate president, and that Ukrainians have the right to choose their own leader.
 
So, per reports Russia's endgame is to depose Zelenskyy, and install Victor Yanukovych, the much-despised ex-President who has been a wanted criminal in the country on charges resulting from his security forces killing hundreds of protesting civilians, plus some property and financial crimes for funsies. Yeah, I'd imagine that will be very well-received by Ukrainians, and won't require Russia to permanently occupy the country in order to maintain his grasp on power. He won't even be able to rely on the Ukrainian military to (temporarily) prop him up this time; he'd be on trial or dead in a ditch within a week.

Even those in Eastern Ukraine (including members of his old party) are pretty clear that they have zero love for the idea of being 'liberated' by having their cities leveled:

https://www.ft.com/content/131068c8-5a5e-466a-a476-48de30d97760

It's genuinely difficult to state how profoundly disconnected from reality all of Russia's moves have been.
 
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