Off Topic Politics Thread

[Schad]

The Czechs and Hungarians are backing harsh financial measures against Russia.

Germany is providing AT weapons to Ukraine.

That's the two members of the EU normally most supportive of Russia, and their powerful go-between in Europe, all taking a pretty aggressive posture. I'm honestly surprised by how quickly even the right-nationalists have rallied against Putin.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

What would be really interesting now, and actually really clever if Boris had a brain. He could legally now have a clearout of all the slightly dodgy oligarch connections to the Tory party, whilst also significantly impacting the war effort, by forcing through what are called "unexplained wealth" seizures of the oligarchs London properties.

He could raise a huge amount of cash by doing so (and solve some housing issues too, but lets not go too far), sever some unsavoury connections, and help turn the oligarchs against Putin (at which point, it's game over for Dobby the House Elf). It would be legal too. And he should.

Let's see.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

The Czechs and Hungarians are backing harsh financial measures against Russia.

Germany is providing AT weapons to Ukraine.

That's the two members of the EU normally most supportive of Russia, and their powerful go-between in Europe, all taking a pretty aggressive posture. I'm honestly surprised by how quickly even the right-nationalists have rallied against Putin.

Yep. Orban turning like that is very significant.

I think/hope/suspect he's ballsed this right up, as was predicted.

 

[Osvaldorama]

What would be really interesting now, and actually really clever if Boris had a brain. He could legally now have a clearout of all the slightly dodgy oligarch connections to the Tory party, whilst also significantly impacting the war effort, by forcing through what are called "unexplained wealth" seizures of the oligarchs London properties.

He could raise a huge amount of cash by doing so (and solve some housing issues too, but lets not go too far), sever some unsavoury connections, and help turn the oligarchs against Putin (at which point, it's game over for Dobby the House Elf). It would be legal too. And he should.

Let's see.

The more likely outcome is that Roman has done this before his personal sanction so he gets to keep the income and asset under someone else’s name.
I have no faith in boris to actually do anything meaningful against the billionaires.
But we can hope

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

The more likely outcome is that Roman has done this before his personal sanction so he gets to keep the income and asset under someone else’s name.
I have no faith in boris to actually do anything meaningful against the billionaires

Me either. But he could, and it would be smart of him on a number of levels.

 

[tomw24]

The Czechs and Hungarians are backing harsh financial measures against Russia.

Germany is providing AT weapons to Ukraine.

That's the two members of the EU normally most supportive of Russia, and their powerful go-between in Europe, all taking a pretty aggressive posture. I'm honestly surprised by how quickly even the right-nationalists have rallied against Putin.

Putin's now been backed into a corner. He was expecting to take Ukraine quickly - that plainly is not going to happen. Meanwhile the sanctions are piling up, the protests are growing and he's losing supporters by the day. But I just can't see Putin admitting he ****ed up so I can only see this war continuing until he takes Ukraine.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

Putin's now been backed into a corner. He was expecting to take Ukraine quickly - that plainly is not going to happen. Meanwhile the sanctions are piling up, the protests are growing and he's losing supporters by the day. But I just can't see Putin admitting he ****ed up so I can only see this war continuing until he takes Ukraine.

Or he can ‘save face’ by calling a ceasefire and hauling the Chinese in to moderate a meeting. That kind of thing.

 

[tomw24]

Germany has also now softened its stance on imposing sanctions for Russia on Swift. Good.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

I would say, let’s not get excited just yet. This could very much still go either way. It feels at a dangerous point right now.

 

[Schad]

Yep. Orban turning like that is very significant.

I think/hope/suspect he's ballsed this right up, as was predicted.

And now we get to the question: what is his new victory condition? The desired one -- which seems to have been quickly toppling the Ukrainian government, hopefully installing (at least temporarily) a more Russia-friendly government and solidifying the breakaway republics in the East -- isn't going to work out. He can still accomplish those goals, but it's quite clear that such a government wouldn't last a week unless Russian troops continue to occupy the country, and would be replaced by an even more stridently anti-Russian government the second they leave.

So, does he:

- Knock off the Ukrainian government and GTFO, allowing Russia to declare victory and pull back to Belarus and the breakaways while maintaining a war footing, with no real agreement;

- Attempt to occupy Ukraine long enough to have some sort of sham election that would give them a government that would put to paper some of their demands on the breakaways/Crimea;

- Take some sort of peace deal with Ukraine in a week or two that gives some sort of recognition to the autonomy of the breakaways (short of actual independence) and no agreement on Crimea.


Because #3 is the most achievable pseudo-victory, but it's also so transparently a loss that it will be enormously damaging to his position. #1 is also likely achieveable, but means that Russia will be stretched thin ensuring that an emboldened Ukraine doesn't try to take the breakaways by force, and means a long-term crisis that will get extremely expensive for Russia. #2 is the only actual victory, but it would be unimaginably costly, and relies on the Russian army to hold a hostile country for probably a year, minimum.

 

[Archers Road]

And now we get to the question: what is his new victory condition? The desired one -- which seems to have been quickly toppling the Ukrainian government, hopefully installing (at least temporarily) a more Russia-friendly government and solidifying the breakaway republics in the East -- isn't going to work out. He can still accomplish those goals, but it's quite clear that such a government wouldn't last a week unless Russian troops continue to occupy the country, and would be replaced by an even more stridently anti-Russian government the second they leave.

So, does he:

- Knock off the Ukrainian government and GTFO, allowing Russia to declare victory and pull back to Belarus and the breakaways while maintaining a war footing, with no real agreement;

- Attempt to occupy Ukraine long enough to have some sort of sham election that would give them a government that would put to paper some of their demands on the breakaways/Crimea;

- Take some sort of peace deal with Ukraine in a week or two that gives some sort of recognition to the autonomy of the breakaways (short of actual independence) and no agreement on Crimea.


Because #3 is the most achievable pseudo-victory, but it's also so transparently a loss that it will be enormously damaging to his position. #1 is also likely achieveable, but means that Russia will be stretched thin ensuring that an emboldened Ukraine doesn't try to take the breakaways by force, and means a long-term crisis that will get extremely expensive for Russia. #2 is the only actual victory, but it would be unimaginably costly, and relies on the Russian army to hold a hostile country for probably a year, minimum.

Another possibility is Russia’s military leaders depose him. No idea how likely that is, but without the support of the army and security forces he’s ****ed.

 

[Schad]

Another possibility is Russia’s military leaders depose him. No idea how likely that is, but without the support of the army and security forces he’s ****ed.

It's entirely possible that the military (and oligarchs, who are looking at being deprived of all their luxury and standing in Europe) depose him, particularly if this turns into an attempt at long-term occupation. The Russian military didn't want this conflict, by most reports.

And that's why I'm curious what his endgame is at this point, because all of those scenarios involve risks to his grasp on power. #3 will make him and Russia look weak, which will increase the ferocity of opposition in the country. #2 places an enormous strain on the military, which increases the risks of a putsch. #1 ensures that Russia is financially isolated long-term, while having to maintain an aggressive posture, which places him under threat from both the military and the billionaire clique.

 

[Le Tissier's Laces]

Hmmm...the Russkies have regained control of Hostomel airport to the north of Kyiv, which is a shame. I wonder if he goes very airborne attack on the centre as his next move. Possibly targeting the government centre?

 

[San Tejón]

Are we really doing this?

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[Gregm1988]

Are we really doing this?

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Pretty sure this is misrepresentation. As far as I can tell (from the Guardian of all places) is that we haven’t relaxed existing rules just because of this. But this tweet it worded in such a way as to make people think we are actively suspending applications

Not saying I agree but if so it is very manipulative writing

Granted I only scan read the guardian article

 

[berlinersaint]

It's entirely possible that the military (and oligarchs, who are looking at being deprived of all their luxury and standing in Europe) depose him, particularly if this turns into an attempt at long-term occupation. The Russian military didn't want this conflict, by most reports.

And that's why I'm curious what his endgame is at this point, because all of those scenarios involve risks to his grasp on power. #3 will make him and Russia look weak, which will increase the ferocity of opposition in the country. #2 places an enormous strain on the military, which increases the risks of a putsch. #1 ensures that Russia is financially isolated long-term, while having to maintain an aggressive posture, which places him under threat from both the military and the billionaire clique.

Yeah, thats more or less how I,m looking at the situation. I know personnely Russians and Ukraniens, They are like one people, the same. The Russian troops dont want to be there anymore than the Ukraniens want them there,its got (IMO); more to do with Putins ego.
When the Berlin wall fell, the last soviet soldier to leave his border-post was a certain Vladimir Putin! "Not a lot of people know that"
Vladimir, leave your post.

 

[Gregm1988]

And now we get to the question: what is his new victory condition? The desired one -- which seems to have been quickly toppling the Ukrainian government, hopefully installing (at least temporarily) a more Russia-friendly government and solidifying the breakaway republics in the East -- isn't going to work out. He can still accomplish those goals, but it's quite clear that such a government wouldn't last a week unless Russian troops continue to occupy the country, and would be replaced by an even more stridently anti-Russian government the second they leave.

So, does he:

- Knock off the Ukrainian government and GTFO, allowing Russia to declare victory and pull back to Belarus and the breakaways while maintaining a war footing, with no real agreement;

- Attempt to occupy Ukraine long enough to have some sort of sham election that would give them a government that would put to paper some of their demands on the breakaways/Crimea;

- Take some sort of peace deal with Ukraine in a week or two that gives some sort of recognition to the autonomy of the breakaways (short of actual independence) and no agreement on Crimea.


Because #3 is the most achievable pseudo-victory, but it's also so transparently a loss that it will be enormously damaging to his position. #1 is also likely achieveable, but means that Russia will be stretched thin ensuring that an emboldened Ukraine doesn't try to take the breakaways by force, and means a long-term crisis that will get extremely expensive for Russia. #2 is the only actual victory, but it would be unimaginably costly, and relies on the Russian army to hold a hostile country for probably a year, minimum.

Surely number 3 isn’t an option since he is basically on record as saying Ukraine is basically Russian territory and not a county (“historic mistake”). He can’t easily make a speech like that and then negotiate with them without losing an extreme amount of face

 

[Schad]

Surely number 3 isn’t an option since he is basically on record as saying Ukraine is basically Russian territory and not a county (“historic mistake”). He can’t easily make a speech like that and then negotiate with them without losing an extreme amount of face

It's not a good option. It only really becomes an option if the potential consequences of the other options appear worse...sometimes better to lose face than your head.

 

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Surely number 3 isn’t an option since he is basically on record as saying Ukraine is basically Russian territory and not a county (“historic mistake”). He can’t easily make a speech like that and then negotiate with them without losing an extreme amount of face

He definitely cannot solidify the existence of the breakaways. That happens and he has achieved the exact opposite of his plan. Ukraine would have no border dispute and would be a NATO member fairly quickly, I should imagine...

 

[Gregm1988]

He definitely cannot solidify the existence of the breakaways. That happens and he has achieved the exact opposite of his plan. Ukraine would have no border dispute and would be a NATO member fairly quickly, I should imagine...

No border dispute ? Slightly confused but there is a lot of nuance to this situation