Nass's System testing thread

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OddDog said:
Going well Nass <ok>
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So far so good. Pleasing that big priced winners are doing the job.

Todays horses.

13:15 Newmarket Flying Barty 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 2
13:15 Newmarket Dreaming Princess 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 2
13:15 Newmarket Lucy Lightfoot 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 2
13:15 Newmarket Lost Angel 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 2
13:50 Newmarket Beyond Equal April Trainers - First time out 2
13:50 Newmarket Boogie Time Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 2
13:50 Newmarket Gale Force Maya April Trainers - First time out 2
13:50 Newmarket Strike Red April Trainers - First time out 2
13:50 Newmarket Punchbowl Flyer April Trainers - First time out 2
16:10 Newmarket Pride Aside First run 3 year old April 2
16:10 Newmarket Dancing Eagle First run 3 year old April 2
16:10 Newmarket Auyouni First run 3 year old April 2
16:45 Newmarket Israr April Trainers - First time out 2

26pt staked
Balance now +80.85
 
Old boy can I ask a few questions re fillies / mares running whilst in foal. Going to be quite a lot over the next few weeks so wondered if (i) this can be profitably exploited by a system, (ii) there is already a 'known' system in place to cover (no pun intended) this 'group' of runners, (iii) there is a resource or racecards where it is detailed that a filly / mare is in foal and (iv) at what stage in the pregnancy (I believe that they can run up to 120 days after being covered) are fillies / mares most profitable and most unprofitable to follow.

I don't know the answer to any of these questions but I thought it something, and highly relevant at this time of the year, to consider on the subject of systems.
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Old boy can I ask a few questions re fillies / mares running whilst in foal. Going to be quite a lot over the next few weeks so wondered if (i) this can be profitably exploited by a system, (ii) there is already a 'known' system in place to cover (no pun intended) this 'group' of runners, (iii) there is a resource or racecards where it is detailed that a filly / mare is in foal and (iv) at what stage in the pregnancy (I believe that they can run up to 120 days after being covered) are fillies / mares most profitable and most unprofitable to follow.

I don't know the answer to any of these questions but I thought it something, and highly relevant at this time of the year, to consider on the subject of systems.
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The issue with this one is that it isn’t reported on the Racing Post as a declared “aid” or the like, so finding a list of these mares is nigh on impossible.

@PNkt would be best placed I would guess to see if such a list occurs elsewhere in racing, but from this punters position it is one of the great variables that isn’t mapped. (Along with the other one that is “are they trying”)
 
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Last season I was told Punting had been covered by Without Parole (had a filly foal this week by the way) and then went back to Hughes. Was then told she was outgalloping previous equal partners. Sure enough she won her first race back.
I find it hard to believe it improves a horse but I do believe it can get rid of unwanted traits: like excitability, coming into season etc..
It would be helpful to know if a filly has been covered though..
 
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NassauBoard said:
The issue with this one is that it isn’t reported on the Racing Post as a declared “aid” or the like, so finding a list of these mares is nigh on impossible.

@PNkt would be best placed I would guess to see if such a list occurs elsewhere in racing, but from this punters position it is one of the great variables that isn’t mapped. (Along with the other one that is “are they trying”)
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Thanks. Not good that there's no list anywhere - still maybe one day...

The only mare that I know that has been covered and set to run, soon, is Midnightreferendum (Nathaniel). Her final race will be at Haydock Park on Saturday.

Must say though that I've no strong opinions re how she will fare. Fascinating to see how she gets on though.
 
Todays picks - I've reduced stake because of so many selections in each race.

13:00 Beverley Zuffolo 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Galaxy Gazer 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Stella Blue 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Zakram 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Brave Emperor 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Zuffolo 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Glendown 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:15 Newmarket Gulf First run 3 year old April 1
13:15 Newmarket Shining Al Danah First run 3 year old April 1
13:15 Newmarket Ashky First run 3 year old April 1
13:15 Newmarket Aurora Papillon First run 3 year old April 1
13:40 Beverley Gliding Bay April Trainers - First time out 1
13:40 Beverley Cabinet Maker Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
13:40 Beverley Marquis Of York April Trainers - First time out 1
13:40 Beverley Loudspeaker April Trainers - First time out 1
13:50 Newmarket Tolstoy April Trainers - First time out 1
13:50 Newmarket Vintage Clarets April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Liberated Light April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Liamarty Dreams Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
14:15 Beverley Liamarty Dreams Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
14:15 Beverley Makalu April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Grifter April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Sezaam April Trainers - First time out 1
14:25 Newmarket State Event First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Sweet Fantasy First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Secret State First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Caesar Nero First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Francesco Clemente First run 3 year old April 1
14:50 Beverley Havagomecca April Trainers - First time out 1
15:25 Beverley Can Can Girl Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:25 Beverley Scheggi Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:25 Beverley Carrigillihy Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
15:25 Beverley Can Can Girl April Trainers - First time out 1
15:25 Beverley Berry Edge April Trainers - First time out 1
16:10 Newmarket Cosmic Desert First run 3 year old April 1
16:10 Newmarket Byker First run 3 year old April 1
16:35 Beverley Katie's Kitten Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
16:35 Beverley Stand Free Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
16:35 Beverley Katie's Kitten April Trainers - First time out 1
16:45 Newmarket Damaar April Trainers - First time out 1
16:45 Newmarket Dreaming April Trainers - First time out 1

41pts staked
 
NassauBoard said:
Todays picks - I've reduced stake because of so many selections in each race.

13:00 Beverley Zuffolo 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Galaxy Gazer 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Stella Blue 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Zakram 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Brave Emperor 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Zuffolo 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
13:00 Beverley Glendown 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:15 Newmarket Gulf First run 3 year old April 1
13:15 Newmarket Shining Al Danah First run 3 year old April 1
13:15 Newmarket Ashky First run 3 year old April 1
13:15 Newmarket Aurora Papillon First run 3 year old April 1
13:40 Beverley Gliding Bay April Trainers - First time out 1
13:40 Beverley Cabinet Maker Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
13:40 Beverley Marquis Of York April Trainers - First time out 1
13:40 Beverley Loudspeaker April Trainers - First time out 1
13:50 Newmarket Tolstoy April Trainers - First time out 1
13:50 Newmarket Vintage Clarets April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Liberated Light April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Liamarty Dreams Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
14:15 Beverley Liamarty Dreams Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
14:15 Beverley Makalu April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Grifter April Trainers - First time out 1
14:15 Beverley Sezaam April Trainers - First time out 1
14:25 Newmarket State Event First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Sweet Fantasy First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Secret State First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Caesar Nero First run 3 year old April 1
14:25 Newmarket Francesco Clemente First run 3 year old April 1
14:50 Beverley Havagomecca April Trainers - First time out 1
15:25 Beverley Can Can Girl Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:25 Beverley Scheggi Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:25 Beverley Carrigillihy Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
15:25 Beverley Can Can Girl April Trainers - First time out 1
15:25 Beverley Berry Edge April Trainers - First time out 1
16:10 Newmarket Cosmic Desert First run 3 year old April 1
16:10 Newmarket Byker First run 3 year old April 1
16:35 Beverley Katie's Kitten Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
16:35 Beverley Stand Free Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
16:35 Beverley Katie's Kitten April Trainers - First time out 1
16:45 Newmarket Damaar April Trainers - First time out 1
16:45 Newmarket Dreaming April Trainers - First time out 1

41pts staked
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isuppse you can’t narrow it down ? without scrapping it , is there a nh version of this ?
 
rudebwoy said:
isuppse you can’t narrow it down ? without scrapping it , is there a nh version of this ?
Click to expand...


That is the process I am going through this season, checking on performance of the systems and then seeing if I can reduce the selections further. The April system for instance has about 200 bets a year (historical data) and a strike rate of 17%. I need to decide if that is fair enough or whether I can reduce it down without impacting on returns.

The two year old systems aren't doing very well this year, and perhaps that is a learning point that you need to be more agile when betting on juveniles, throwing in good first season sires as soon as they show promise. Again, another learning point! It may well be that I scrap those systems after this season.

Today is a bit of a perfect storm with Beverley on, which has its own system.

In terms of the jumps, I have been testing a few systems over the winter, without backing them. I need to sit down and look at those at some point!!

In theory I don't see why similar approaches can't be taken, I am sure trends exist that are profitable and system creationable. However I do prefer following the jumps racing and probably betting them blind is a bit alien for me on the jumps.

Similarly, I am sure you could do the same for the All Weather, but as you know I prefer to follow the form more closely and I do think things like speed ratings and course form stack up better on the all weather. Therefore I study those races in a different way too.
 
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NassauBoard said:
That is the process I am going through this season, checking on performance of the systems and then seeing if I can reduce the selections further. The April system for instance has about 200 bets a year (historical data) and a strike rate of 17%. I need to decide if that is fair enough or whether I can reduce it down without impacting on returns.

The two year old systems aren't doing very well this year, and perhaps that is a learning point that you need to be more agile when betting on juveniles, throwing in good first season sires as soon as they show promise. Again, another learning point! It may well be that I scrap those systems after this season.

Today is a bit of a perfect storm with Beverley on, which has its own system.

In terms of the jumps, I have been testing a few systems over the winter, without backing them. I need to sit down and look at those at some point!!

In theory I don't see why similar approaches can't be taken, I am sure trends exist that are profitable and system creationable. However I do prefer following the jumps racing and probably betting them blind is a bit alien for me on the jumps.

Similarly, I am sure you could do the same for the All Weather, but as you know I prefer to follow the form more closely and I do think things like speed ratings and course form stack up better on the all weather. Therefore I study those races in a different way too.
Click to expand...
So Nass, what wins what at Newmarket today?
 
13:00 Ripon Beach Breeze 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 2
13:50 Newmarket Fragrance 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:50 Newmarket Kingdom Of Dreams 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
13:50 Newmarket Cheeky Maxi 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
15:25 Ripon Blenheim Boy April Trainers - First time out 2
16:10 Newmarket Accidental Agent April Trainers - First time out 2
16:20 Bath Amalfi Gem Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 2
16:20 Bath Notre Maison April Trainers - First time out 2
16:45 Newmarket Han Solo Berger April Trainers - First time out 2
16:55 Bath Global Effort 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
16:55 Bath Mintana 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
16:55 Bath Clear To Land 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril
18:00 Bath Granary Queen April Trainers - First time out 2
19:00 Bath Weardiditallgorong Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
19:00 Bath Lady Elysia Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
19:00 Bath Cloudy Rose April Trainers - First time out 1
19:00 Bath Lady Elysia April Trainers - First time out 1
19:00 Bath Tibbie Dunbar April Trainers - First time out 1

bank now at +55.49
 
Another good day so far, with 19.39, 9.6 and 8.48 BSP winners. It would be nice to finish the day with a profit in the 7:00 but I doubt that is going to happen.
 
Lots tomorrow, but I am taking it easy and cutting stakes to 1pt per horse...

13:32 Musselburgh Sunday Justice April Trainers - First time out 1
14:04 Musselburgh Northern Express April Trainers - First time out 1
14:39 Musselburgh Dakota Gold April Trainers - First time out 1
14:39 Musselburgh Raasel April Trainers - First time out 1
15:14 Musselburgh Diocletian Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:14 Musselburgh Hms President April Trainers - First time out 1
15:35 Newbury Cu Chulainn April Trainers - First time out 1
15:35 Newbury Trais Fluors April Trainers - First time out 1
15:35 Newbury Migration April Trainers - First time out 1
15:47 Musselburgh Just Dashing 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
15:47 Musselburgh Little Betty 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
16:10 Newbury Metabolt First run 3 year old April 1
16:10 Newbury Gulf First run 3 year old April 1
16:10 Newbury God Of Thunder First run 3 year old April 1
16:10 Newbury Imperative First run 3 year old April 1
16:45 Newbury Tashkent First run 3 year old April 1
16:45 Newbury Broadshare First run 3 year old April 1
16:57 Musselburgh Spartakos Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:07 Nottingham Val De Travers April Trainers - First time out 1
17:20 Newbury Shadowfax First run 3 year old April 1
17:20 Newbury Ottoman Fleet First run 3 year old April 1
17:20 Newbury Natural World First run 3 year old April 1
17:40 Nottingham Rocket Rodney 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril
17:40 Nottingham Dare To Hope 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril
17:40 Nottingham The Full Bronte 2YO-Sires_MarchApril
17:40 Nottingham Glorious Angel 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril
17:40 Nottingham True Statesman 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril
17:40 Nottingham The Full Bronte 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril
17:55 Newbury Rival Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:55 Newbury Beautiful Crown Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:55 Newbury Danville Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:55 Newbury Sweet Reward April Trainers - First time out 1
17:55 Newbury No Recollection April Trainers - First time out 1
17:55 Newbury Danville April Trainers - First time out 1
18:15 Nottingham Space Odyssey First run 3 year old April 1
18:45 Nottingham Pyrrhic Dancer Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
18:45 Nottingham Caesar's Palace Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
18:45 Nottingham Manshoodah April Trainers - First time out 1
19:45 Nottingham Coup De Force April Trainers - First time out 1
19:45 Nottingham Gabriella's Spirit April Trainers - First time out 1

34 staked
 
Fortunately/unfortunately not got time today to do this. Will update yesterdays results this evening and selections for tomorrow
 
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SaveTheHumans said:
Would need extreme discipline to handle the variance. Do you plan on a system refinement over time?
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Key for me is having varied systems, so not just concentrating on one yard, one sire or one course, which hopefully will help balance the impact of variance over years.

In terms of system refinement, it depends on the system and its variables, the ones such as the disastrous 2yo system will be impacted more by First Season Sires and new variables, whereas systems based on speed ratings, handicap races and field sizes would be more likely to be stable over time.
 
13:39 Redcar Take My Chances First run 3 year old April 2
14:49 Redcar Sin E Shekells April Trainers - First time out 2
14:49 Redcar Marwari April Trainers - First time out 2
15:24 Redcar Mossbawn April Trainers - First time out 2
15:24 Redcar Queen's Sargent April Trainers - First time out 2
15:59 Redcar Air Raid April Trainers - First time out 2
16:34 Redcar Time To Rumble April Trainers - First time out 2
17:09 Redcar Highland Sky Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 2
17:09 Redcar Tykenwear April Trainers - First time out 2
17:44 Redcar Rum Going On April Trainers - First time out 2

20 staked
 
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