Nass's System testing thread

Positive weekend, so the bank is back up to +95.35

More of the NH systems coming into play, yesterday the mares in handicap hurdles and then today we have the held up at Chepstow system.

13:00 Southwell First Revolution Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
13:30 Southwell Asockastar Held up at Chepstow - Courses NTO 1
13:30 Southwell Dazzling Glory Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
14:15 Pontefract Lady Celia Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:00 Southwell Flighty Bride Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
15:00 Southwell Simply Red Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
15:15 Pontefract Casi Crudo Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
18:30 Musselburgh Urban Road Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:30 Musselburgh Contactless Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:30 Musselburgh Doomsday Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:00 Musselburgh Red Force One Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:15 Windsor Zoom Zoom Babe Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
19:15 Windsor Australian Angel Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:30 Musselburgh Sixcor Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:30 Musselburgh Birkenhead Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:00 Musselburgh Sheikh Maz Mahood Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:00 Musselburgh Chant For More Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:15 Windsor Pink Jazz Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
20:30 Musselburgh Far From A Ruby Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:30 Musselburgh Sparkle In His Eye Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
21:00 Musselburgh Award Dancer June Trainers - First Time Out 1

 

A good day yesterday with 6 winners at -

10.25
2.02
3.8
9.45
18.9
2.99

Bank as such as risen to +123.66

Interestingly it is one system that is vastly outperforming everything, which is the Apprentices - Weight allowance >4. This system has had 259 bets, 42 winners (16% strike rate) and a profit of 159.4 to 1 point level stakes. Interestingly the BSP for this system isn't particularly low either, with a mean of 26.41 BSP.

Whilst it is tempting to put more eggs into that basket when it is performing well, I feel I am too early into this and need to grow the bank further before looking to change stakes.

 

Todays

15:00 Brighton Manshoodah Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:50 Hamilton Kapono Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:10 Brighton King Of War Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:45 Brighton Eastern Star June Trainers - First Time Out 1
16:55 Chepstow Madrinho June Trainers - First Time Out 1
16:55 Chepstow Joy Choi Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:00 Chepstow Maison Beau June Trainers - First Time Out 1
18:00 Chepstow Diamond Cottage Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:00 Chepstow Our Man In Havana Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:00 Chepstow Swiss Mistress Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:00 Chepstow Bird For Life Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
19:00 Chepstow Infiniti Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:00 Chepstow Cloudy Rose Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:50 Stratford Mactavish Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
20:50 Stratford Ilanz Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1

 

13:30 Worcester The Big Sting Over a year off - Positive Trainers NH 1
14:00 Worcester Gouet Des Bruyeres Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
14:40 Musselburgh Will He Dance Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
14:50 Thirsk Dreamcasing June Trainers - First Time Out 1
14:50 Thirsk Ustath Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:50 Thirsk Kolossus Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:00 Worcester Champagne Well Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
15:00 Worcester Starsky Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
15:15 Musselburgh Gweedore Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:00 Thirsk Baba Reza June Trainers - First Time Out 1
16:10 Worcester Masterdream Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
16:10 Worcester Phoebus Lescribaa Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
16:20 Musselburgh Militia Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:03 Thirsk Carbonado Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:50 Bath Recon Mission Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1

 

13:30 Haydock Can Can Girl Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
13:30 Haydock Bookmark Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4
13:50 Yarmouth The Thunderer Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:20 Yarmouth Just Percy Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
14:20 Yarmouth Young Winston Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:20 Yarmouth Mighty Mind Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:20 Yarmouth Western Writer Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:20 Yarmouth Conservative Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:30 Haydock Wobwobwob Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:50 Yarmouth Sir Min Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:50 Yarmouth State Secretary Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:00 Haydock Secret Image June Trainers - First Time Out 1
16:20 Yarmouth Clipsham Gold Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:20 Yarmouth Must Be Royale Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:20 Yarmouth Kraka Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:20 Yarmouth Hi Ho Silver Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:50 Yarmouth Ubahha Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:50 Yarmouth Iesha Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:38 Newbury Upton Park Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:08 Newbury Gert Lush Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:40 Newbury My Ambition Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:50 Epsom Twining Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1

 

13:00 Doncaster Politicism Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:30 Newton Abbot Sofia's Rock Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing
15:20 Doncaster Sampers Seven Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
15:30 Sandown Autumn Festival Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
15:30 Sandown Brilliant Blue Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:40 Newton Abbot Mucuna Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
15:40 Newton Abbot Beerenberg Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
15:55 Doncaster Jeans Maite Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
15:55 Doncaster Instinction Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:13 Newton Abbot Jimmy Bell Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
17:00 Doncaster Crypto Quest Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:08 Sandown Sharla Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:33 Haydock Jacks Profit Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:33 Haydock Caesar's Palace Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp
17:33 Haydock Caesar's Palace Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4
17:33 Haydock Ha Long Bay Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:38 Haydock Mighty Gurkha Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:38 Haydock Shark Two One Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
18:38 Haydock Cold Stare Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:38 Haydock Under Curfew Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:23 Beverley Whitcliffe Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1

 

Bit of an update. 3 mixed days, but a nice positive day yesterday with a 30.0 winner now puts the bank at +126.61

And yes, it is the Apprentices that are performing well again.

 

13:35 Haydock Sir Henry Cotton Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:05 Haydock Valsad Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:25 Sandown Mostawaa Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
14:45 Leicester Night Bear Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:45 Leicester Marie Paradis Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:15 Haydock Brentford Hope Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:15 Haydock Secret Shadow Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:15 Haydock It's Good To Laugh Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:15 Haydock Torcello Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
15:28 Beverley Show Yourself Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
15:50 Haydock Glorious Angel Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:55 Leicester Trusty Rusty Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4
15:55 Leicester Soi Dao Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:05 Beverley Nordhalla Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
16:10 Sandown Taskheer Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:25 Haydock Oo De Lally Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:30 Leicester Precision Storm Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4
16:30 Leicester Magical Mile Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:40 Beverley Bit Of A Quirke Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
16:40 Beverley Where's Jeff Beverley - Pace and Ratings 1
16:55 Haydock Wilderness Girl Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:00 Leicester Divine Magic Newmarket switchers - Hold up Handicaps 1
17:00 Leicester Divine Magic Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:20 Sandown King Of Stars Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:05 Leicester Girl Inthe Picture Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:20 Carlisle Where's Diana Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:20 Carlisle Hot Scoop Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:30 Nottingham Denable Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
19:30 Nottingham Oi The Clubb Oi'S Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
19:50 Carlisle Iron Sheriff Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:50 Carlisle Dandy's Angel Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:20 Carlisle Global Spirit Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:30 Nottingham Caesar's Palace Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
20:30 Nottingham Caesar's Palace Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1


31 staked!

 

Positive day yesterday with the two 2pt horses winning at decent odds. That made up from the day before where the systems lost out.

Bank again floating around +120pt

Today it stands at +124.54pts before todays bets

15:35 Market Rasen Koi Dodville Trainers first time in handicap chases with novices 1
16:10 Market Rasen Royal Village Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
16:10 Market Rasen My Manekineko Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
16:10 Market Rasen One For Billy Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
16:37 Ayr Perfect Soldier Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
16:37 Ayr Highlight Reel Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:20 Market Rasen Little Brother Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
17:20 Market Rasen Awesomedude Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
17:20 Market Rasen Pateen Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1

 

13:35 Worcester Shentri Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
15:00 Ayr Wrecked It Ralph Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
15:00 Ayr Sixcor Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:30 Worcester Lucky Lover Boy Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
17:05 Worcester Tara Niece Mares in handicap hurdles - low stakes big prices? 1
17:05 Worcester Eightytwo Team Mares in handicap hurdles - low stakes big prices? 1
17:05 Worcester Robeam Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
17:05 Worcester The Wild Wild Sea Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
18:45 Ripon Wendell's Lass Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:45 Ripon Ramamaras Boy Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:15 Ripon Greek Kodiac Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
19:15 Ripon Indy Moon Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:45 Ripon Society Red Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1

 

17:15 Pontefract Slate Cracker Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
17:15 Pontefract Slate Cracker Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:50 Ffos Las Dylan's Ruby Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
18:00 Uttoxeter Nayway Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
19:00 Uttoxeter Coeur Aimant Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
19:00 Uttoxeter Rip Rocks Paddy Ok Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1
19:10 Brighton Good Regal Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:50 Ffos Las Alyara Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
20:10 Brighton Mumcat Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:40 Brighton Sparked Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:50 Ffos Las Blazon Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
20:50 Ffos Las Earth Giant Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
21:00 Uttoxeter Corrany Conditional_Amateur - NH Racing 1

 

14:10 Yarmouth Back From Dubai Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
14:20 Catterick Varden Kite Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:50 Catterick Alaskan Wind Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:50 Catterick Where's Diana Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:40 Yarmouth Chloellie Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:50 Catterick Diocletian Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
17:20 Catterick Key Look Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:20 Catterick Desert Dream Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:35 Bath Easy Equation Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:35 Bath Tribuna Uffizi Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:35 Bath Autumn Flight Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:35 Bath Under Curfew Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:05 Bath Edge Of The Bay Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
19:05 Bath Privilege Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:05 Bath Ubahha Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:05 Bath Trailblazer Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:05 Bath Atomise Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4
20:35 Bath Midgetonamission Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
20:35 Bath Patroon Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:35 Bath Dawn Tapper Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1

 

Poor week so far -

13:30 Doncaster Dusky Prince Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
13:30 Doncaster Leodis Dream Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
13:40 Carlisle Real Terms Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
14:00 Doncaster Nibras Again Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:10 Carlisle Chester Le Streak Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:45 Carlisle Fox Hill Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:45 Doncaster Cliffcake Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:20 Doncaster Ba Na Hills Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:20 Doncaster Persian Royal Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:05 Carlisle Mr Coco Bean Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:38 Newbury Sky Blue Thinking Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
18:53 Epsom Rainbow Sign Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:23 Epsom Pablo Del Pueblo Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
19:23 Epsom Prince Of Bel Lir Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:08 Newbury Neverbeen To Paris Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
20:08 Newbury Australian Angel Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:08 Newbury Tazaman Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:23 Epsom Eddy May Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:38 Newbury Swiss Pride Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1

 

13:50 Newmarket Natural World Newmarket - Handicaps 1
14:05 York El Picador Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
14:15 Ascot It's Chico Time Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
14:50 Ascot Teumessias Fox Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:00 Newmarket Summer's Knight Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
15:00 Newmarket Mandoob Newmarket - Handicaps 1
15:00 Newmarket Spirit Mixer Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
15:25 Ascot Cosmic Desert Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:00 Ascot Makinmedoit Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:00 Ascot Pretty Sweet Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
16:10 Newmarket Dashing Dick Newmarket - Handicaps 1
17:00 York Eeh Bah Gum Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:00 York Van Gerwen Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:11 Ascot Asad Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:45 Ascot Grey Fox Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
17:45 Ascot Sucellus Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:15 Chepstow Dundory Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
18:15 Chepstow Papas Boy Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4
18:30 Chester Shine's Ambition Chester 5/6f well drawn and time period 1
18:45 Chepstow Rhubarb Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
18:45 Chepstow Our Man In Havana Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
19:30 Chester The Twilight Lady Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:15 Chepstow Connie's Rose Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
20:15 Chepstow Deacs Delight Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:30 Chester Alcazan Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:45 Chepstow Soldier's Son Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
20:45 Chepstow Grandstand Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1
21:00 Chester Rozalia Apprentices - Weight Allowance >4 1

 

Old boy, last evening young Joseph has runners in 2 races and in both the stable 'shortie' was beaten by a stablemate available at much bigger odds (Magellan Strait and Shoshone Warrior). This got me thinking is there any data available re the strike rate and profit/loss of those stablemates rejected (or given less chance) by the betting market???

 

Interesting question, and one I looked at for Ferg (the other other other O'Brien) runners last season.

Simple answer is, you could look at it, but it isn't a simple query in the database, so it would be a bit of scripting and analysis... so i've done in for young O'B for you...


Since starting training he has had 309 winners in races he had multiple runners in, 48 started at double figure odds. I could progress further, but even looking at that bored me silly.