Monday 22nd October Daily Thread

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stick

stick

Bumper King
Jan 17, 2012
18,609
11,653
113
Maidenhead, Berkshire
Good to see Windsor racecourse acknowledging Richard Hughes feat with Royal Windsor Hughsie Seven Handicap at 4.00pm tomorrow. The Rebecca Curtis trained Monte Cavallo is the overnight favourite but I firmly believe that conditions will not suit.
I do like one quite a lot in the race in the form of PIVOTMAN 18-1. He comes to the race with very uninspiring form figures but if you dig a little deeper you will find that he looks an Autumn horse. Since showing some smart form last September he has run some shockers but this has led to a tumbling in the ratings and he comes to this on a very handy mark.
He has one sparkling piece of form, a second to Kirthill beaten only 3/4 of a length off a mark of 93 at Newbury last year. Kirthill would win carrying these! Today Pivotman runs off a mark of 76.
The key to him is allowing him to bowl along in front. I wont have the luxury of watching him but those of you that can could choose to bet in running.
I am confident conditions will suit and it would be of no surprise to see the yard having a little tickle on this one.
Good luck if you play.
 
I think you have found a decent bet there Stick, as you mention the handicapper has been more than generous and dropped him to his lowest mark. In his last race, which was decent enough as it contained a big improver in John Gosdens Sunpass as well as a good winner in Art Scholar, Pivotman ran very well for 8 1/2 furlongs before being swallowed up but still kept on. He will like this groud more than most and at the odds looks a good bet. I have just backed him at the 18's with Betvictor, so fingers crossed.

A great jockey as well in my opinion in Jim Crowley, very underated.
 
Was at Ascot on saturday now I find myself going to Pontefract on Monday.

What a difference a few days make <laugh>
 
An obvious one this, but nothing else on the card really appeals, so my only bet of the day is Pete The Feat, 3.40 Plumpton. Not a very strong race, so a repeat of his recent Uttoxeter run should be enough for Charlie Longsdon's 8yold gelding to follow up here off a mark of 105. A faction over evens on Betfair seems fair enough.
 
If O'brien were to get a 1-2 up in the RP trophy would that be enough to snare the trainers championship?
 
4.05 Tipperary

Dromdeals Princess 20/1

Very surprised such a big price is available about David Harry Kelly's rules debutant and I'm hopeful of a big run. This 6 year old has already had two starts in Point to Points and was successful on her 2nd start in this sphere when coming home a 12L victor (I'm not looking too much into this as only 3 horses of the 11 starters finished). Although that P2P probably took very little winning, she at least got her head in front and you've got to be buoyed by the fact that she has is already on the winning thread. In terms of breeding, this mare is a &#8364;15,500 purchase and is a half sister to Rebecca Curtis's bumper winner The Romford Pele and comes from the same family as triple Grade 2 winning chaser Life of a Lord so she's a likeable enough mare on breeding as well. The main thing that caught my eye about her was her rookie trainer who only began training (at least under rules) in May of this year. David Harry Kelly has already made a very bright start to his career, especially in bumpers, and currently has an excellent strike rate in this sphere of 36% (4-11) and as such any bumper horses he has make me sit up and take notice. In addition, he has sent out two winners on debut which is again very pleasing for a horse who is having her first run under rules. 7lb claimer Pa King takes the ride and he rode Dromdeals Princess in both points so his familiarity with the horse is a clear positive and King has ridden all 4 of Kelly's Bumper winners and has a 44% strike rate when teaming up with the trainer in this sphere. Although a competitive enough looking race, I think Dromdeals Princess looks very overpriced at 20/1 and hopefully she can keep her trainer's excellent record going by landing what will be a huge test of stamina.
 
God, sorry chaps, completely lost track of the time, glad Croco Mister didn't win, that would have looked bad. Wondered why I could not get a bet on <doh>.
 
The Racing Post is shaping up to be probably one of the deepest 2yo fields of the season, Trading Leather, Battle Of Marengo, First Cornerstone, Fantastic Moon, Steeler, and a couple of unexposed types in Kingsbarns and Ven Der Neer, forget the rest. I think the Irish will dominate but Obrien dosent have a hope in hell of having the first 3 home and ill be amazed if JOB isnt on Battle Of Marengo, Kingsbarns was visually impressive but it was an egg and spoon maiden and I didnt get the Camelot/St Nic feel about him. First Cornerstone would be a big player if the ground was really soft but if the ground is decent I think the two main players here are Trading Leather and Battle Of Marengo and I would expect them to dominate the betting with Battle Of Marengo the likely favourite. Its still a week away and its hard to get a real good feel for it until the final decs, I like Trading Leather but Obriens record in the race cant be ignored and im not 100% yet, I dont think there will be much between them and the only thing that is making it hard for me is the fact that Bolger normally targets Dewhurst day and this is normally the target for Obriens best, but I dont think Bolger has sent many to this race so might be making too much of it and he has said a while ago that he had this race marked for Trading Leather.
 
Windsor 5:00
Byrd in Hand 14/1 looks to have form over a fair few of these on weights and enjoys the mud. Fav looks hard to beat with the 7lb twisty davies claimer so a small bit on the RF.
 
Certainly wouldn't give up on Dromdeals Princess. She travelled into the race well but got very tired very quickly after seeing a fair bit of late money for her. Nothing wrong with that considering it was 2m4f on such testing ground and I wouldn't hesitate backing her next time.

With Regards Stick's Pivotman, don't think Gosden's horse did him any favours taking him on for the lead in the manner he did. Wouldn't discount him completely just yet.
 
5.20 Pontefract

Sir Geoffrey 66/1 NAP

Could finish last but Scott Dixon's 6 year old looks an absolutely massive price in this competitive looking handicap at Pontefract. Could be crazy putting the NAP tag to it but if he's on a going day he could run a monster race. Formerly a horse that loved to make all, he's had to have a change of tactics now he's gotten a little older but he's still a talented animal on his day (and he's a horse who only does it when he wants to!) Although not at his best his past few starts, that isn't much of a concern given that he's a moody horse. Sir Geoffrey was clearly in good heart during the summer when finishing a short head 2nd over todays C+D off a 5lb lower mark before deservedly landing a 5f event at Doncaster on his next start off a mark of 68 in fine style by 2L- off only a 2lb lower mark that he has to contest with today in a race that looks decent enough form wise. Trainer Scott Dixon seems to hit a purple patch with his last two runners both winning and that's clearly a huge positive for today. Luke Morris takes the ride and was on board one of Dixon's winners on Saturday and he won't mind today's underfoot conditions in the slightest. In a race that looks as if it has an abundance of pace, it looks tailored to fall apart for a finisher to claim. Although stall 15 isn't great, Sir Geoffrey clearly goes well at the track and on a mark that looks within his scope of ability it wouldn't surprise me if this gelding ran a good race (hopefully its not too hot for him!) and if on a going day hopefully he can land this at a massive price.
 
Backed in to 11/2 and tailed off WTF can you do about that - hard lines Stick :(

Boris want a bet big time my friend. Joseph rides Kingsbarns. You had the upper hand over the weekend by about 25 points to 0 but this is a cert
 
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