MELBOURNE CUP. NEXT TUESDAY.

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Cyclonic

Cyclonic

Well Hung Member
Mar 4, 2011
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Yes I have one of these. I'm there now.
Very interesting race that seem to be really wide open this year. With the scratching of the favourite, the Caulfield Cup winner, New Zealander *****lian Khan who's succumbed to colic, Fame Game from Japan has assumed favouritism for the $6,200,000 race. Old Red Cadeaux making his sixth visit down under, is as usual garnering a heap of attention. He's one much loved beast. Ed Dunlop has the second favourite Trip To Paris who stands at about 8-1, but the trainer has stated that the 25-1 about the old warrior is great value. He's of the opinion that there's not much between them. He's amazed at how popular Red Cadeaux is. He's a bit of a rock star. Is it any wonder after 3 gallant seconds in the Cup? Trip To Paris put in a sensational run in the Caulfield Cup and will take a power of beating.

Willie Mullins is causing a bit of a stir with the hurdler cum potential flat sensation Max Dynamite. He's pleased the eye and has had a trip to Flemington for a bit of a look around. He's been a bit lazy since he arrived a month ago, but fired up when he was taken onto the course. Mullins flew down a couple of weeks ago for a quick peek and the horse was worked before him. The trainer was pleased with what he saw and decided that the horse didn't need a lead in race. This is a big move by Mullins. Max Dynamite has come in for heavy support. 16-1....where there's smoke.......?

I like Almoonqith. He's come on nicely and looks to be peaking at the right time. His Geelong Cup win was full of merit. He's been trimmed from 20s into 12-1.

International Scene Index
 
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Pity about *****lian Khan. Surely Red Cadeaux can't do it again, can he?
 
You wouldn't think so Ron, but that's what we all thought last year. They lifted the roof off when he strolled to the front at the 300 and it took a good one to beat him down. Nothing looked a chance of taking his second place either. He loves Flemington and seems to grow another leg at this time of year. Maybe he just likes the sunny climate, who knows? It would be one of the all time great wins if he can finally get the job done. He probably can't, but I hope he can.
 
I know less than nothing about Australian racing but I backed Max Dynamite at 20/1 once they confirmed he'd travel. The way he toyed with them a York was exceptionally decent and Clever Cookie was well smashed in it and he should a won the stayers G1 race at Ascot.
 
Trip To Paris ought to take some beating in this but can see him being nabbed by one.

What chance does ex Ballydoyle THE UNITED STATES have Cyc? Is he a definite runner now?

He is very lightly raced and has some very shrewd connections as far as Australin racing goes. Won LTO first time he was stepped up to 12f- can he improve again up in trip? I might take a chance at 25/1
 
TopClass said:
Trip To Paris ought to take some beating in this but can see him being nabbed by one.

What chance does ex Ballydoyle THE UNITED STATES have Cyc? Is he a definite runner now?

He is very lightly raced and has some very shrewd connections as far as Australin racing goes. Won LTO first time he was stepped up to 12f- can he improve again up in trip? I might take a chance at 25/1
Click to expand...

Due to attrition, The United States has just sneaked into the field Toppy. He's been well supported for some time now, even before he qualified. His Moonee Valley Gold Cup win was full of merit, and he's expected to run some sort of race. There other races run today where they could force their way in, so it's not sure yet. Good luck.
 
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Toppy, it all turned out for the best. Before today's racing began, The United States had just wormed his way into the field. Then the Waterhouse trained Excess Knowledge won the Lexus, promoting him into the field at the expense of The United States. It looked all over for the horse. Then out of the blue it was announced that stable mate Amralah, owned by largely the same connections, is to be withdrawn from the Cup. The reason being that advice from a vet, on treatment for the horse a couple of weeks ago had left a potential positive swab on the animal. They were told that the substance would have left the system by Cup time. They took a precautionary swab yesterday, and it returned a positive. Out goes Amralah, in comes the heavily backed The United States. :)
 
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OFFICIAL 2015 Melbourne Cup field and barrier draw. (in order of entry)

1 SNOW SKY Sir Michael Stoute 58kg 16
2 CRITERION David Hayes & Tom Dabernig 57.5kg 4
3 FAME GAME Yoshitada Munakata 57kg 12
4 OUR IVANHOWE Lee & Anthony Freedman 56kg 22
5 BIG ORANGE Michael Bell 55.5kg 23
6 HARTNELL John O’Shea 55.5kg 17
7 HOKKO BRAVE Yasutoshi Matsunaga 55.5kg 20
8 MAX DYNAMITE William Mullins 55kg 2
9 RED CADEAUX Ed Dunlop 55kg 8
10 TRIP TO PARIS Ed Dunlop 55kg 14
11 WHO SHOT THEBARMAN Chris Waller 54.5kg 6
12 SKY HUNTER Saeed Bin Suroor 54kg 7
13 THE OFFER Gai Waterhouse 54kg 13
14 GRAND MARSHAL Chris Waller 53.5kg 15
15 PREFERMENT Chris Waller 53.5kg 11
16 QUEST FOR MORE Roger Charlton 53.5kg 21
17 ALMOONQITH David Hayes & Tom Dabernig 53kg 10
18 KINGFISHER Aidan O’Brien 53kg 9
19 PRINCE OF PENZANCE Darren Weir 53kg 1
20 BONDI BEACH Aidan O’Brien 52.5kg 18
21 SERTORIUS Jamie Edwards 52.5kg 5
22 THE UNITED STATES Robert Hickmott 52.5kg 3
23 EXCESS KNOWLEDGE Gai Waterhouse 51kg 24
24 GUST OF WIND John Sargent 51kg 19
 
Thanks to AAPT and Telstra.

SNOW SKY: "I don't know if he's come on since the Caulfield Cup, he'll tell us that on Tuesday, but we had him pretty fit there and this will suit him better." - Trainer Sir Michael Stoute.

CRITERION: "He'll get a beautiful run now from barrier four and Michael (Walker) has just got to time his run and he'll present at some stage, you know he'll be there." - Co-trainer David Hayes.

FAME GAME: "It's a great honour to be a short-priced favourite but the rest of the field will be hard to beat." - Trainer Yoshitada Munakata.

OUR IVANHOWE: "I'm really happy with him. He's probably a little bit of a forgotten horse, but I was always taught if you run a place in the Caulfield Cup and you've got improvement left, you're going pretty good. So I think he'll go pretty good." - Co-trainer Lee Freedman.

BIG ORANGE: "He's a happy horse. He gets two miles. He goes left-handed. He likes fast ground. He ticks a lot of boxes." - Trainer Michael Bell.

HARTNELL: "We know that Hartnell, on the strength of his Cox Plate run is going to be competitive." - trainer John O'Shea.

HOKKO BRAVE: "The Caulfield Cup was an unfortunate race. The pace was not helpful for our horse. We believe we can beat Fame Game." - Trainer Yasutoshi Matsunaga.

MAX DYNAMITE: "His work has been getting better and we've been building it up towards Tuesday and so far, so good." - Willie Mullins' assistant trainer David Casey.

RED CADEAUX: "If he runs in the top four it would be an astonishing result for a horse of his age to come to this country six times," - Trainer Ed Dunlop.

TRIP TO PARIS: "I think he's definitely come on from his Caulfield Cup run." - Jockey Tommy Berry.

WHO SHOT THEBARMAN: "He ran third in this race last year and second in the Sydney Cup. We know he can stay." - Trainer Chris Waller.

SKY HUNTER: "We try for years and years. We've finished second three times in the past. I hope this time we can do it," - Trainer Saeed bin Suroor.

THE OFFER: "He's a proven stayer and we know how effective he is on rain-affected ground." Trainer Gai Waterhouse.

GRAND MARSHAL: "He beat Who Shot Thebarman to win the Sydney Cup. One thing we know with the pair of them is the distance is no problem." - Trainer Chris Waller.

PREFERMENT: "Of my runners, he has the `wow' factor." - Trainer Chris Waller.

QUEST FOR MORE: "On his best form he's going to be very competitive. I'm very happy to be riding him and I think he'll run a really good race." - Jockey Damian Lane.

ALMOONQITH: "If I was against Almoonqith I'd be very worried about him, the way he won at Geelong." - Co-trainer David Hayes.

KINGFISHER: "The first week was a bit difficult but in my view he looks as well as anything, in fact I'm amazed at how well he looks." Co-owner Lloyd Williams.

PRINCE OF PENZANCE: "I'm not sure whether he's good enough but a top 10 finish would be a good result." - Trainer Darren Weir.

BONDI BEACH: "I have a theory that northern hemisphere three-year-olds, since I've watched Mahler run third to Efficient, have a good chance of winning the race." - Co-owner Lloyd Williams.

SERTORIUS: "To be the only Australian-owned, Australian-bred and Australian-trained horse in the race. It's pretty special I suppose." - Trainer Jamie Edwards.

THE UNITED STATES: "He's fit and well. He's come through that race at Moonee Valley well. I think he's improved a bit and he's looking for a trip." - Co-owner Lloyd Williams.

EXCESS KNOWLEDGE: "Dropping to that luxury weight, he'll be more than competitive." - Trainer Gai Waterhouse

GUST OF WIND: "She is looking for two miles and the Cup has always been her goal." - Trainer John Sargent.
 
I am not buying Dunlop's "if he makes the first four" nonsense, RED CADEAUX loves it round here and to my eye is pretty well treated for a horse with an astonishing record in the race. He has almost certainly been prepared since this day last year with just this in focus and at 25/1 he rates a monster each way punt from my seat. The criminals down under love him so doubt he will be quite that big at the track!
 
They can win from out in the car park Oddy, but I wouldn't want to drawn out there. In the one hundred and sixty odd renewals, the wins are spread all over the shop, but in the last 20 years, only 3 horses have come from outside the 14 slot.
 
You suddenly interested in draw bias, Oddy? :emoticon-0112-wonde

Sod it, wasn't going to bother this year, but will have three half-crowns e/w Quest For More at around 50/1, think it is, maybe even 66/1.

Yep, will go with SkyBet and their 5-places offer, Quest For More e/w at 66/1, and will have a bit on Bondi Beach too e/w at 18/1, as I can now watch the race live on Eurosport.
 
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For anyone intending to watch Melbourne Cup live ...
Race not on ATR

The Melbourne Cup will not be shown on At The Races, as in previous years, but on Eurosport, which will broadcast a 60 minute show beginning at 3.15am on Tuesday morning.
 
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Think TRIP TO PARIS looks to have an outstanding chance in this. This horse is better than Red Cadeaux, who is a legend in these parts, and has proven he is just as happy Down Under with a terrific 2nd in the Caulfield Cup. If he comes on from that, he has the stamina and the gears to become a legend himself.

If there is one to beat him, THE UNITED STATES at a price has sneaked in on a featherweight, is lightly raced, is owned by a shrewdy Lloyd Williams and trained by an even shrewder one in Robert Hickmott, the trainer of my 2012 Melbourne Cup pick Green Moon.

On breeding this horse would have no chance as despite being a son of Galileo, his dam side is packed with sprinters but every time he races he runs on strongly and confounds my usual analysis. I actually believe a Melbourne Cup winner has to have gears- there are few dour stayers that win this although there has been rain this year so they had to move the rail 3m in to stop a track bias for fresh ground all round.

He rallied strongly over 8-10f in Ireland when trained by Aiden O'Brien but looked even better last time out when asserting late to win going away over 12f. He is drawn in barrier 3 so he should be close enough to the speed- the key thing for him is to settle. If he does, he could run a huge race.
 
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