Wolves could probably catch Man U... unfortunately Ipswich and Leicester probably couldn't now, so United are probably safe from relegation.
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- Thread starter Jimmy Squarefoot
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Wolves could probably catch Man U... unfortunately Ipswich and Leicester probably couldn't now, so United are probably safe from relegation.
Thinks it's far closer to it than we ever got though, even in the H&G era we weren't that close to the drop at this stage if the season
Man utd look rotten to the core and honestly if they were not filthy rich and couldn't spend another 3 or 400million I would be thinking they are going to spiral down.
Terrible keeper
Tragic back line
Barely functional midfield
No width
Terrible forwards.
Most of the mid table sides have better units and deserve to be above them
We're mathematically safe.
A win tonight, or anything other than a win for Man U tonight, means that they mathematically can't finish above us either. In February.
A win tonight, or anything other than a win for Man U tonight, means that they mathematically can't finish above us either. In February.
Just going back to this point on breaking the season into 3rds.
Played 13 w11 d1 l1 = 34 points
Played 26 w18 d7 l1 = 61 points and 27 points gained gained 7, drawn 6. lost 0.
There's a final 12 games then and we have already won the first one.
If we went the entire season at the form of the first third we would get 99 points.
If we went the entire season at the form of the second third we would only get 79 points.
If we continue the current level of form now until the end we would end up on 89 points.
Played 13 w11 d1 l1 = 34 points
Played 26 w18 d7 l1 = 61 points and 27 points gained gained 7, drawn 6. lost 0.
There's a final 12 games then and we have already won the first one.
If we went the entire season at the form of the first third we would get 99 points.
If we went the entire season at the form of the second third we would only get 79 points.
If we continue the current level of form now until the end we would end up on 89 points.
Another block of 4 games is done. we've done better than exepcted over 3 tough games. after the last block i posted that 10/12 wuld be title winning. Its done.
Block Performance:
10/12 is championshipo winning form again.
Historical Performance
block 7as good as last year, we were joint top this time last year and it fell apart. this time theres a massive cushion of points.
Points Trend
Just on the line for 90. we won't need 90.
Performance v Bottom half teams
Games played 14
Goals scored 34
Goal conceded 9
Games won 12
Games drawn 2
Games lost 0
Win ratio 86%
Draw ratio 14%
Loss ratio 0%
Goals per game 2.43
Goals conceded per game 0.64
Points per game 2.71
6 games left v bottom half. we conced 0.64 a game! score 2.43 per game! ominous. 4 of these are also at home.
Performance V Top Half Sides _forest added so this looks ok.)
Games played 14
Goals scored 31
Goal conceded 16
Games won 8
Games drawn 5
Games lost 1
Win ratio 57%
Draw ratio 36%
Loss ratio 7%
Goals per game 2.21
Goals conceded per game 1.1
Points per game 2.07
There are 4 of these games left. we have dropped from 1.3 goals per game conceded to 1.1 with some clean sheets this block.
the 4 left are spurs, chelsea, arsenal and brighton. (and yes psurs are not going to be top half but they are a consistent top half team over time and will be again)
Super League Scum Table:
Super league 6 table
Super league 6 V the rest table
City have played 9 of 10 games. chelsea only 6. based on this and seeing cheslea play arsneal, lfc, Spurs and Man utd I would say they need to improve a lot to make top 4.
11 points of our gap is now based on arsenal perofrmance agasint non top 6 teams. This just shows how theres a lot of talents out there that you have to be on your game against.
Where does this season Compare with 2019/20
We have conceded more goals over all, especially in the middle thrid of the season. belive it or not we are a full 12 points behind our perfect season. you can see that red line above of just perfect block after block.
We have actually scored 5 more goals than the same time in 2020
We have conceded 6 more than the same time in 2020
Gap between first and second over time
The only season where a team with a large lead after 28 games has lost the title is 2022/23 where arsenal imploded and city took the title, that was an 8 poit gap at the phase with games not being even.
In the past 10 years only 3 times have the top team being caught and the gap was 0 points last year (gd) and 1 point gap in 2018/19 where city had to win all the last games to catch us.
In other words 13 points has never been caught in RECENT history.
The next 4 games.
Southampton H
Everton H
Fulham A
West Ham H
Last block of 4
Leicester A
Spurs H
Chelsea A
Arsenal H
the left overs:
Brighton A
Crystal Palace H
Now is the time to finihs this off. We can win a cup, progress i tnhe CL and still say we should win these 4 games by rights. 12 more points = 79 points and really you go beat leicester and i dont expect arsenal to be able to catch 82 points TBH.
That has to be the target while we manage the squad and internationals.
PSG Away
southampton Home
PSG away
Newcastle final
International break
Everton Home (is actually wednday 2nd april at 8pm, no excuses about internationals here)
fulham A 5th april
CL QF (maybe) 8th april
West ham H 12th april
CL QF (maybe) 15th april
Leicester A 19th april
thats how to win the league. a busy april
but now the CL SF if we are lucky is 29th april and 5th may. this has to be moentioned in the context of getting this title done. why?
Spurs H 26th April
CL SF 29th april
Chelsea H 3rd may
CL SF 5th may
Arsenal H 10th May
My view now is lets get this done early and try our best in the CL. the route is PSG, villa, Real (not a chance arsenal beat real) Thats tough enough but we are set up now to get there.
Villa will have to put everything into the league soon or just everythign into CL (stupid they havent a hope v real) they are miles off 5th.
PSg are tough but this is set up for us to put everythign in and still control southampton.
12/12 lets get the job done now. Not easy games but we need to manage them and deliver.
I would expect another couple of arsenal draws to make that 12/12 decisive (not that 13 point game isn't decisive)
Block Performance:
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10/12 is championshipo winning form again.
Historical Performance
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block 7as good as last year, we were joint top this time last year and it fell apart. this time theres a massive cushion of points.
Points Trend
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Just on the line for 90. we won't need 90.
Performance v Bottom half teams
Games played 14
Goals scored 34
Goal conceded 9
Games won 12
Games drawn 2
Games lost 0
Win ratio 86%
Draw ratio 14%
Loss ratio 0%
Goals per game 2.43
Goals conceded per game 0.64
Points per game 2.71
6 games left v bottom half. we conced 0.64 a game! score 2.43 per game! ominous. 4 of these are also at home.
Performance V Top Half Sides _forest added so this looks ok.)
Games played 14
Goals scored 31
Goal conceded 16
Games won 8
Games drawn 5
Games lost 1
Win ratio 57%
Draw ratio 36%
Loss ratio 7%
Goals per game 2.21
Goals conceded per game 1.1
Points per game 2.07
There are 4 of these games left. we have dropped from 1.3 goals per game conceded to 1.1 with some clean sheets this block.
the 4 left are spurs, chelsea, arsenal and brighton. (and yes psurs are not going to be top half but they are a consistent top half team over time and will be again)
Super League Scum Table:
Super league 6 table
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Super league 6 V the rest table
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City have played 9 of 10 games. chelsea only 6. based on this and seeing cheslea play arsneal, lfc, Spurs and Man utd I would say they need to improve a lot to make top 4.
11 points of our gap is now based on arsenal perofrmance agasint non top 6 teams. This just shows how theres a lot of talents out there that you have to be on your game against.
Where does this season Compare with 2019/20
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We have conceded more goals over all, especially in the middle thrid of the season. belive it or not we are a full 12 points behind our perfect season. you can see that red line above of just perfect block after block.
You must log in or register to see images
We have actually scored 5 more goals than the same time in 2020
We have conceded 6 more than the same time in 2020
Gap between first and second over time
You must log in or register to see images
The only season where a team with a large lead after 28 games has lost the title is 2022/23 where arsenal imploded and city took the title, that was an 8 poit gap at the phase with games not being even.
In the past 10 years only 3 times have the top team being caught and the gap was 0 points last year (gd) and 1 point gap in 2018/19 where city had to win all the last games to catch us.
In other words 13 points has never been caught in RECENT history.
The next 4 games.
Southampton H
Everton H
Fulham A
West Ham H
Last block of 4
Leicester A
Spurs H
Chelsea A
Arsenal H
the left overs:
Brighton A
Crystal Palace H
Now is the time to finihs this off. We can win a cup, progress i tnhe CL and still say we should win these 4 games by rights. 12 more points = 79 points and really you go beat leicester and i dont expect arsenal to be able to catch 82 points TBH.
That has to be the target while we manage the squad and internationals.
PSG Away
southampton Home
PSG away
Newcastle final
International break
Everton Home (is actually wednday 2nd april at 8pm, no excuses about internationals here)
fulham A 5th april
CL QF (maybe) 8th april
West ham H 12th april
CL QF (maybe) 15th april
Leicester A 19th april
thats how to win the league. a busy april
but now the CL SF if we are lucky is 29th april and 5th may. this has to be moentioned in the context of getting this title done. why?
Spurs H 26th April
CL SF 29th april
Chelsea H 3rd may
CL SF 5th may
Arsenal H 10th May
My view now is lets get this done early and try our best in the CL. the route is PSG, villa, Real (not a chance arsenal beat real) Thats tough enough but we are set up now to get there.
Villa will have to put everything into the league soon or just everythign into CL (stupid they havent a hope v real) they are miles off 5th.
PSg are tough but this is set up for us to put everythign in and still control southampton.
12/12 lets get the job done now. Not easy games but we need to manage them and deliver.
I would expect another couple of arsenal draws to make that 12/12 decisive (not that 13 point game isn't decisive)
Seems City have had most of their big six clashes over and done with before we get to the run in and the CL latter stages
Interesting
- May 22, 2011
- 73,303
- 25,367
- 113
It’s why city are huge favs to finish top 4 for me. Squad depth is there, already played majority of big teams and out of the CL.
3rd will be minimum they finish
3rd will be minimum they finish
Think you will be right there
It’s certainly possible looking at the fixtures
Year 1st 2nd
2024/25 67 54
2023/24 64 64
2022/23 69 61
2021/22 69 66
2020/21 65 54
2019/20 79 57
2018/19 69 68
2017/18 75 57
2016/17 69 59
2015/16 57 54
2014/15 63 58
2013/14 63 59
2012/13 71 59
2011/12 67 66
2010/11 60 57
2009/10 61 60
2008/09 65 58
The view that this season is abnormal is wrong.
67 after 28 is right in line with nearly every season for the past 10 bar of course our amazing 2019/20 season.
I don't even think this gap is astounding. 20/21 was 11, 2019/20 was 2, 2017/18 was 18, 2016/17 was 10, 2012/13 was 12. 2022/23 was 8. I would say half of the seasons have had the title over by now in effect.
2024/25 67 54
2023/24 64 64
2022/23 69 61
2021/22 69 66
2020/21 65 54
2019/20 79 57
2018/19 69 68
2017/18 75 57
2016/17 69 59
2015/16 57 54
2014/15 63 58
2013/14 63 59
2012/13 71 59
2011/12 67 66
2010/11 60 57
2009/10 61 60
2008/09 65 58
The view that this season is abnormal is wrong.
67 after 28 is right in line with nearly every season for the past 10 bar of course our amazing 2019/20 season.
I don't even think this gap is astounding. 20/21 was 11, 2019/20 was 2, 2017/18 was 18, 2016/17 was 10, 2012/13 was 12. 2022/23 was 8. I would say half of the seasons have had the title over by now in effect.
It's all good, let them believe the league title was theirs but for some bad luck.
Hopefully they do very little in the summer because of it.
Hopefully they do very little in the summer because of it.
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Was going to say, if he had one against Forest he should pop in an oggie just to get the set.And Liverpool