Goals goals goals

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Libby

Libby

Game's gone
Feb 9, 2011
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Goals win games and there's been a lot of talk this season about missing out on a striker which may have put us into trouble.

So I thought I'd take a look at our recent goal tallies and where the goals might come from. Ralph's 3 full seasons have produced:

21/22 - 43
20/21 - 47
19/20 - 51

For the purpose of this I'm going to say 45 goals should be the target. I'm sure teams have stayed up with less than that but they're usually much better defensively than us (hello Burnley).

So currently we have scored 11 goals with just under a third of the season gone and they've come from a variety of sources:

Che 3
Aribo 2
Arma 1
Stu 1
JWP 1
KWP 1
Lavia 1
Perraud 1

So without a new attacking player where are the goals coming from?

Che should get 7-9
Arma maybe 3-5
JWP hopefully 5-7
Aribo also 5-7?
Stu probs 3-5

Can't see any others contributing any more than 1/2 bar maybe KWP?

Taking the upper limit of those estimates then that would give us 33 with another ten or so needed from other sources. Probably doable? The lower limit of those estimates however would only be 23 which would put us in real trouble.

I think this shows how important Aribo is to us this season. We really need him to chip in with a fair few or else we'll have a mountain to climb.

Have to say without a signing in January I think there's a really good chance we go down due to this. I simply don't think we have enough goals in us.
 
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Good assessment.

My worry is that with our goals coming spattered about the team you can’t rely on that as a regular source ie multiply by 3.

We’re currently on course to get 34.8 goals, which is worrying.
 
Lovelocum said:
Good assessment.

My worry is that with our goals coming spattered about the team you can’t rely on that as a regular source ie multiply by 3.

We’re currently on course to get 34.8 goals, which is worrying.
Click to expand...

By that same metric though there are 3 teams on course to get less than us (Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth) and three to get the same as us (West Ham, Everton and Villa)

I agree goals are an issue but I don’t think it’s as simple as sign striker = more goals. I think a lot comes down to style of play. On Libby’s numbers there I think you could possibly boost Che’s numbers by a few if we get him better service which comes from style of play: There will be some players not listed who could get 1 or 2 each over the course of the season (I’m thinking centre backs) and then we are around 40 goals.
 
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Saintmagic said:
By that same metric though there are 3 teams on course to get less than us (Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth) and three to get the same as us (West Ham, Everton and Villa)

I agree goals are an issue but I don’t think it’s as simple as sign striker = more goals. I think a lot comes down to style of play. On Libby’s numbers there I think you could possibly boost Che’s numbers by a few if we get him better service which comes from style of play: There will be some players not listed who could get 1 or 2 each over the course of the season (I’m thinking centre backs) and then we are around 40 goals.
Click to expand...

I agree its not neccesarily that simple as signing a striker (and a goal scoring AM would be fine too) but we've undoubtedly lost goals from the squad over the summer and simply haven't replaced them.

Of course styles make a difference but it makes sense to talk about our current one at this point. I also don't believe a different style would make a huge difference as we lack natural goalscorer. I love Che but even if you built team around him and KDB he'd still get no more than 11/12 absolute max imo.

I was including CBs in my extra '10 or so' btw and I'm not convinced 40 goals is definitely enough to stay up given our inability to keep clean sheets and that we're on track for 60 goals conceded again.
 
My feeling is still that, while a natural goalscorer is a big need, a couple players to drive us into position to score goals is the bigger need. We've had times in the past where our issue was that he didn't finish our chances; our issue this year (particularly after the first few games) has been that we create sweet **** all. We created 1.24 xG last year; it's down to 0.98 now. Even a good striker is going to struggle to generate that many goals under such circumstances.

A dynamic wide player is the top priority, IMO. And honestly, a central midfielder with an eye for a pass is, too. Lavia was a major difference-maker in that regard even though his primary role is as a DM, but we cannot really solely rely on him for forward momentum through the middle, and it's abundantly clear that JWP is never going to be that player, either.
 
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At this stage last season we also had 11 goals. Spooky.

Where we seem to lack goals, is from set-pieces (despite having the 'world's best' set-piece taker), and from shots from range.

It's only JWP, Perraud, and sometimes Stuie, who are willing to have a crack from distance. Elyou can't shoot for sh*t, Aribo doesn't seem willing either. And for an attacking midfielder that is just inexcusable really.

None of our CBs currently seem like a threat from corners, but I think the blame for this is on JWP's corner-taking.

What is also telling, is that we haven't had a penalty or a free-kick in a decent scoring position. Maybe it's because we don't have the players who are willing or able to take on a man. Edozie looks like the player most likely to draw a foul.
 
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Che’s Godlike Thighs said:
At this stage last season we also had 11 goals. Spooky.

Where we seem to lack goals, is from set-pieces (despite having the 'world's best' set-piece taker), and from shots from range.
Click to expand...

We also have one of the lowest rates of shots taken within the penalty area and within the six yard box. The scary thing is that our finishing has actually been, statistically, pretty good this year. We just aren't generating decent chances.
 
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Schad said:
We also have one of the lowest rates of shots taken within the penalty area and within the six yard box. The scary thing is that our finishing has actually been, statistically, pretty good this year. We just aren't generating decent chances.
Click to expand...

Right. Until we scored on Saturday, around the 60th minute, I don’t think we’d touched the ball inside their box.

Regarding shooting, the Perraud goal against West Ham showed what can happen sometimes if you just have a go.
 
Che 10
Aribo 10
Mara 6
A Armstrong 5
JWP 5
S Armstrong 5
Perraud 3
KWP 3
Tino 2
Lavia 2
Maitland-Niles 2
Walcott 1
Lyanco 1


55, that should do us.
 
This is a fascinating thread but I think that the statistics would need to be weighted if you are using this method to predict the number of goals scored by each team by the end of the season. For starters, the comparisons at the moment will be skewed against those clubs who have played more matches against teams who are better defensively. This will not even itself out until the fixtures have been completed. It also makes no account of injuries and players who would potentially score goals but are out injured. Another factor would be the likelihood of teams scoring from penalties and you would suspect that there must be a factor that either reflects home matches or larger , "fashionable" clubs where, in both instances, penalties could be construed as being more likely to be won.

A useful adjunct would be to look at teams who create the most chances or have most shots on goal to see if this could assist in predicting a future goal tally. Furthemore, Libby might want to explore how the January transfer window has affected the scoring ability of various clubs over the last few seasons. An interesting statistic would be to demonstrate those teams who are best able to "refresh" their squads after January and score more goals.

The statistic this season for Saints is not good and I think it does reflect on the lack of a proven goal scorer and also the fact the JWP has largely been ineffecutal this season. I am surprised that the idea of bringing back Tella appears to have been dismissed.

Of course,there is another side to this coin which could be equally revealing and that is looking at how many goals we have conceded up to this point in the season in previous campaigns and looking how this stacks up in comparison to our rivals. Again, this exercie would need to be weighted in light of how many matches have been played against the most-attacking teams.
 
Che’s Godlike Thighs said:
At this stage last season we also had 11 goals. Spooky.

Where we seem to lack goals, is from set-pieces (despite having the 'world's best' set-piece taker), and from shots from range.

It's only JWP, Perraud, and sometimes Stuie, who are willing to have a crack from distance. Elyou can't shoot for sh*t, Aribo doesn't seem willing either. And for an attacking midfielder that is just inexcusable really.

None of our CBs currently seem like a threat from corners, but I think the blame for this is on JWP's corner-taking.

What is also telling, is that we haven't had a penalty or a free-kick in a decent scoring position. Maybe it's because we don't have the players who are willing or able to take on a man. Edozie looks like the player most likely to draw a foul.
Click to expand...
We’re missing Bedders (yes both ends I know)!
 
Saintmagic said:
By that same metric though there are 3 teams on course to get less than us (Forest, Wolves and Bournemouth) and three to get the same as us (West Ham, Everton and Villa)

I agree goals are an issue but I don’t think it’s as simple as sign striker = more goals. I think a lot comes down to style of play. On Libby’s numbers there I think you could possibly boost Che’s numbers by a few if we get him better service which comes from style of play: There will be some players not listed who could get 1 or 2 each over the course of the season (I’m thinking centre backs) and then we are around 40 goals.
Click to expand...

Yes, play as negatively as we did against Villa and Wolves regularly and there is a chance that that it could be be a sub 30 goal season but there were signs in the second halves against Everton and Arsenal that we were a lot braver in possession and played some decent attacking football and that should result in more goals scored.
I do agree that Che is the only player that is capable of scoring 10+ and he needs a few more chances a game which he has had recently. Where do we find that 12-20 goal striker that Danny Ings was for us though without breaking the bank and wage structure, that's a tough ask to get someone in in January so we do need other players chipping in more goals than there are currently but I think that more expansive football will help to boost the numbers.
 
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Ian Thumwood said:
This is a fascinating thread but I think that the statistics would need to be weighted if you are using this method to predict the number of goals scored by each team by the end of the season. For starters, the comparisons at the moment will be skewed against those clubs who have played more matches against teams who are better defensively. This will not even itself out until the fixtures have been completed. It also makes no account of injuries and players who would potentially score goals but are out injured. Another factor would be the likelihood of teams scoring from penalties and you would suspect that there must be a factor that either reflects home matches or larger , "fashionable" clubs where, in both instances, penalties could be construed as being more likely to be won.

A useful adjunct would be to look at teams who create the most chances or have most shots on goal to see if this could assist in predicting a future goal tally. Furthemore, Libby might want to explore how the January transfer window has affected the scoring ability of various clubs over the last few seasons. An interesting statistic would be to demonstrate those teams who are best able to "refresh" their squads after January and score more goals.

The statistic this season for Saints is not good and I think it does reflect on the lack of a proven goal scorer and also the fact the JWP has largely been ineffecutal this season. I am surprised that the idea of bringing back Tella appears to have been dismissed.

Of course,there is another side to this coin which could be equally revealing and that is looking at how many goals we have conceded up to this point in the season in previous campaigns and looking how this stacks up in comparison to our rivals. Again, this exercie would need to be weighted in light of how many matches have been played against the most-attacking teams.
Click to expand...

What Ian is saying is

Statistics don't prove anything
 
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