From the Echo

gomarchingin

gomarchingin

Active Member
Apr 9, 2012
2,465
7
38
Liverpool
If you apply either the Dempster-Shafer theory or the Kolmogorov formulation on mathematical probabilities you can see that if we don't improve our current points tally in our remaining 34 games by more than 8% while the other seven teams around us do improve on average by 2.5% in their remaining 238 games; providing the mid table six do not deviate from current form by more than 4% in their remaining 204 games, then we will be relegated two points short of survival.

This makes the match against Fulham a "must win".

And don't shrug this off by thinking that all this is based simply on the independent calculation method. It isn't. Three points against Fulham is STILL a must even using mutually exclusive numbers.

PS I have e mailed Nigel with this info (though no reply as of 9.32am).
 
gomarchingin said:
If you apply either the Dempster-Shafer theory or the Kolmogorov formulation on mathematical probabilities you can see that if we don't improve our current points tally in our remaining 34 games by more than 8% while the other seven teams around us do improve on average by 2.5% in their remaining 238 games; providing the mid table six do not deviate from current form by more than 4% in their remaining 204 games, then we will be relegated two points short of survival.

This makes the match against Fulham a "must win".

And don't shrug this off by thinking that all this is based simply on the independent calculation method. It isn't. Three points against Fulham is STILL a must even using mutually exclusive numbers.

PS I have e mailed Nigel with this info (though no reply as of 9.32am).
Click to expand...

If I was Nigel my reply would be very short and pointed! The first para makes sense the rest of your post is crap! The Fulham game is no more a must win than any other fixture. In your own words we must improve over 34 games not just 1.

You really do need to get a grip!
 
gomarchingin said:
If you apply either the Dempster-Shafer theory or the Kolmogorov formulation on mathematical probabilities
Click to expand...

I spend an inordinate amount of my time writing about the likelihood of one event or another. By my numbers, this is the single most masturbatory sentence used on the Internet today.
 
Excellent gomarchingin, I have my fix of insightful nonsense to keep me going through the day.. As Otway and Barrett put it in the 70s.. deep and meaningless.
 
Well if we don't win against Fulham is there any point playing the rest of the season? We might as well forfeit as we will definitely go down.
 
The problem with this "analysis" is that ignores what every Saints fan knows about their team. As the season goes on we'll get points where we have no right, and in all probability lose 4-0 at home to Norwich. I will be a tad naffed off if Saints lose on Sunday - but then I'm always bleedin' depressed when we lose - but hardly think that even the lazy telly pundits will have us marked down for relegation as a result. The most important fact about this team is that it will score goals, and teams that do that rarely go down as they'll beat their fellow strugglers.
 
Channon walked on H2O said:
The problem with this "analysis" is that ignores what every Saints fan knows about their team. As the season goes on we'll get points where we have no right, and in all probability lose 4-0 at home to Norwich. I will be a tad naffed off if Saints lose on Sunday - but then I'm always bleedin' depressed when we lose - but hardly think that even the lazy telly pundits will have us marked down for relegation as a result. The most important fact about this team is that it will score goals, and teams that do that rarely go down as they'll beat their fellow strugglers.
Click to expand...

Spot on Channon.I made that point in another thread. Look at Wolves last year they just couldnt score goals. We will lose some games we shouldn't but will win more than enough to keep us up!
 
gomarchingin said:
If you apply either the Dempster-Shafer theory or the Kolmogorov formulation on mathematical probabilities you can see that if we don't improve our current points tally in our remaining 34 games by more than 8% while the other seven teams around us do improve on average by 2.5% in their remaining 238 games; providing the mid table six do not deviate from current form by more than 4% in their remaining 204 games, then we will be relegated two points short of survival.

This makes the match against Fulham a "must win".

And don't shrug this off by thinking that all this is based simply on the independent calculation method. It isn't. Three points against Fulham is STILL a must even using mutually exclusive numbers.

PS I have e mailed Nigel with this info (though no reply as of 9.32am).
Click to expand...

Just realised that you were refering to a post from Confucious on the Echo site, it all makes sense now - nonsense!
 
gomarchingin said:
If you apply either the Dempster-Shafer theory or the Kolmogorov formulation on mathematical probabilities you can see that if we don't improve our current points tally in our remaining 34 games by more than 8% while the other seven teams around us do improve on average by 2.5% in their remaining 238 games; providing the mid table six do not deviate from current form by more than 4% in their remaining 204 games, then we will be relegated two points short of survival.

This makes the match against Fulham a "must win".

And don't shrug this off by thinking that all this is based simply on the independent calculation method. It isn't. Three points against Fulham is STILL a must even using mutually exclusive numbers.

PS I have e mailed Nigel with this info (though no reply as of 9.32am).
Click to expand...

I think if we maintained our current form from games against the likes of Man C, Man U, Arsenal and an in form Everton side against teams like Fulham, West Ham, Swansea and West Brom i would be worried. Surely you realise are form at present is simply down to the tough start we've had, when you look forward to the upcoming fixtures they look much more appetizing.

I would say all but one of the next 8 are winnable and that's assuming we can't beat Spurs which is by no means certain.
 
Ideally we need to win 1 of the next 2 as getting anything from Spurs will be tough. But then we have a nice patch of 4 games in a row which are all winnable
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Top Bottom
Back